Alert archive / South Dakota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 1872

September 3, 20128 counties in Nebraska; 15 counties in South Dakota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Sep 3, 2012, 3:24 PM CDT for 8 counties in Nebraska; 15 counties in South Dakota. It was in force for 96 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Sep 3, 2012, 3:24 PM CDT (20:24 UTC)
Expired
Sep 3, 2012, 5:00 PM CDT
In force
96 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
60%
All 23 counties

Blaine County, NE, Boyd County, NE, Brown County, NE, Holt County, NE, Keya Paha County, NE, Knox County, NE, Loup County, NE, Rock County, NE, Aurora County, SD, Bon Homme County, SD, Brule County, SD, Buffalo County, SD, Charles Mix County, SD, Davison County, SD, Douglas County, SD, Gregory County, SD, Hanson County, SD, Hughes County, SD, Hutchinson County, SD, Hyde County, SD, Jerauld County, SD, Lyman County, SD, Tripp County, SD

The radar

The North Platte radar (KLNX), 190 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:25 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Aberdeen, SD (KABR), launched 12:00Z, 8.4 hours before the alert went out and 191 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Aberdeen, SD at 12:00Z on 2012-09-03Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 54 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Aberdeen, SD at 12:00Z on 2012-09-03The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 21 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
54 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-313 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
2120 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
41 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
21 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
43 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
-0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

458 
ACUS11 KWNS 032025
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032024
SDZ000-NEZ000-032200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1872
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0324 PM CDT MON SEP 03 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL SD INTO NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 032024Z - 032200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS WILL FORM OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH SEVERE WIND
AND HAIL POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE NEAR PIR WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW. AN EXTENSIVE FIELD OF TCU WAS
FORMING SWD FROM THE ACROSS S CNTRL SD AND INTO NEB WHERE LAPSE RATE
PROFILES HAVE BECOME VERY STEEP. WHILE RELATIVELY DRY AIR STILL
EXIST OVER SERN SD AND WRN MN...SELY WINDS WERE HELPING TO MAINTAIN
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S F JUST SE OF THE LOW...WITH LOWER 60S F FARTHER
SEWD ACROSS NEB WHERE CLOUDS HAVE HAMPERED MIXING.

AMPLE MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHEAR EXISTS TO HELP ORGANIZE STORMS WITH
BOTH WIND AND HAIL LIKELY. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR ACROSS
ERN SD...THE EWD PROGRESSION OF ANY SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY TO BE
LIMITED.

..JEWELL/CORFIDI.. 09/03/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON   43559755 42919754 42329814 41949886 41729972 41910036
            43340041 44160039 44620010 44679956 44259844 43559755

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 3, 4:03 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAntelope, Blaine, Boone, Boyd, Brown, Cedar and 12 more6 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in South Dakota, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.