Alert archive / Mississippi / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 1865

September 2, 20124 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Sep 2, 2012, 7:13 PM CDT for 4 states. It was in force for 62 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Sep 2, 2012, 7:13 PM CDT (00:13 UTC)
Expired
Sep 2, 2012, 8:15 PM CDT
In force
62 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 50 counties

Colbert County, AL, Fayette County, AL, Franklin County, AL, Lamar County, AL, Lauderdale County, AL, Lawrence County, AL, Marion County, AL, Walker County, AL, Winston County, AL, Crittenden County, AR, Alcorn County, MS, Benton County, MS, Bolivar County, MS, Calhoun County, MS, Carroll County, MS, Chickasaw County, MS, Clay County, MS, Coahoma County, MS, DeSoto County, MS, Grenada County, MS, Itawamba County, MS, Lafayette County, MS, Lee County, MS, Leflore County, MS, Lowndes County, MS, Marshall County, MS, Monroe County, MS, Montgomery County, MS, Oktibbeha County, MS, Panola County, MS, Pontotoc County, MS, Prentiss County, MS, Quitman County, MS, Sunflower County, MS, Tallahatchie County, MS, Tate County, MS, Tippah County, MS, Tishomingo County, MS, Tunica County, MS, Union County, MS, Webster County, MS, Yalobusha County, MS, Fayette County, TN, Giles County, TN, Hardeman County, TN, Hardin County, TN, Lawrence County, TN, McNairy County, TN, Shelby County, TN, Wayne County, TN

The radar

The Columbus AFB radar (KGWX), 104 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:14 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Little Rock, AR (KLZK), launched 00:00Z, 0.2 hours before the alert went out and 88 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Little Rock, AR at 00:00Z on 2012-09-03Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 2460 joules per kilogram.LCLEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Little Rock, AR at 00:00Z on 2012-09-03The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 80 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
2460 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-4 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1418 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
22 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
80 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
169 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
4.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

829 
ACUS11 KWNS 030014
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030013
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-030115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1865
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0713 PM CDT SUN SEP 02 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MS...NWRN AL...FAR ERN AR...FAR SWRN TN

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 609...

VALID 030013Z - 030115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 609 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WATCH AREA IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. AT LEAST A MODEST THREAT FOR A
BRIEF TORNADO AS WELL AS A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS ACTIVITY.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW INCREASING TSTM COVERAGE
ACROSS NRN MS AND SWRN TN IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED SURFACE
CONVERGENCE. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S...SUPPORTING MLCAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG. THE
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR HAS REMAINED LARGELY UNCHANGED DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS WITH THE LATEST MESOANALYSIS DEPICTING EFFECTIVE SRH NEAR 100
M2/S2. SFC WINDS ACROSS THE SERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA ARE
STILL MOSTLY SLY...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY INCREASED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.
VAD WIND PROFILE FROM GWX CORRELATES THIS WELL WITH 0-1 KM SRH
BETWEEN 150 AND 200 J/KG. GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS...THE THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL AS BRIEF TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR
AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE ACTIVITY ACROSS NWRN MS MAY BEGIN
TO ORGANIZE INTO A FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS WITH AN ENHANCED
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS STILL SHOW MORE OF MULTICELL CLUSTER...SUGGESTING UPSCALE
GROWTH/ORGANIZATION INTO A LINEAR MCS MAY BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

..MOSIER.. 09/03/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON   33379098 35419069 35428698 33368736 33379098

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 2, 8:43 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCalhoun, Cherokee, Cleburne, DeKalb, Etowah, St. Clair62 min
Sep 2, 9:48 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCFayette, Lamar, Marion, Walker, Winston57 min
Sep 3, 12:29 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarbour, Bullock, Butler, Clarke, Coffee, Conecuh and 11 more61 min
Sep 3, 3:25 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAutauga, Barbour, Bibb, Bullock, Butler, Chilton and 16 more65 min
Sep 3, 3:46 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAutauga, Bibb, Butler, Chilton, Choctaw, Clarke and 19 more7 hr
Sep 3, 6:55 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAutauga, Bibb, Butler, Chilton, Choctaw, Clarke and 19 more65 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Mississippi, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Alabama, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Tennessee, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.