Alert archive / Nebraska / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 1689

August 3, 2012Boyd County, Keya Paha County, Nebraska; Gregory County, South Dakota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Aug 3, 2012, 1:02 AM CDT for Boyd County, Keya Paha County, Nebraska; Gregory County, South Dakota. It was in force for 88 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Aug 3, 2012, 1:02 AM CDT (06:02 UTC)
Expired
Aug 3, 2012, 2:30 AM CDT
In force
88 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
20%

Counties Boyd County, NE, Keya Paha County, NE, Gregory County, SD

The radar

The North Platte radar (KLNX), 168 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 06:03 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Aberdeen, SD (KABR), launched 00:00Z, 6.0 hours before the alert went out and 219 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Aberdeen, SD at 00:00Z on 2012-08-03Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 163 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Aberdeen, SD at 00:00Z on 2012-08-03The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 25 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
163 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-119 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
2218 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
27 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
25 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
101 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
-0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

580 
ACUS11 KWNS 030602
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030602 
NEZ000-SDZ000-030730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1689
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0102 AM CDT FRI AUG 03 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SCNTRL SD INTO NERN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 030602Z - 030730Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THROUGH 08Z AS THEY CONTINUE ESEWD THROUGH
SCNTRL SD INTO EXTREME NERN NEB. SPATIAL EXTENT AND DURATION OF
THREAT WILL PROBABLY NOT WARRANT A WW. HOWEVER...IF STORMS BEGIN TO
SHOW SIGNS OF INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH MIGHT NEED TO BE CONSIDERED.

DISCUSSION...SEVERE STORM ALONG THE SD-NEB BORDER IN TRIPP COUNTY IS
MOVING ESE AT AROUND 35 KT. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION REMAINS STRONG
WITH RESPECT TO SFC BASED PARCELS...AND LESS SO FOR PARCELS LIFTED
FROM ABOVE THE SFC LAYER. THE STORM APPEARS TO BE FORWARD
PROPAGATING ALONG ITS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH CONVERGENCE
AND MESOSCALE ASCENT AUGMENTED BY 30 KT SLY LLJ. STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ESEWD ALONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT NEXT COUPLE
HOURS...HOWEVER SOME WEAKENING MIGHT EVENTUALLY OCCUR AS ACTIVITY
SHIFTS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE LLJ AXIS.

..DIAL/WEISS.. 08/03/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON   43309977 43159790 42329796 42879999 43309977

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 3, 6:19 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAntelope, Blaine, Boyd, Brown, Cedar, Cherry and 9 more86 min
Aug 2, 7:10 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCButte, Harding, Lawrence, Meade, Perkins95 min
Aug 3, 1:31 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrown, Campbell, Dewey, Edmunds, Faulk, Haakon and 10 more59 min
Aug 3, 2:14 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAurora, Beadle, Bon Homme, Brookings, Brown, Brule and 34 more7 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in South Dakota, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.