Alert archive / North Dakota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 1473

July 15, 201216 counties in North Dakota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 15, 2012, 7:49 PM CDT for 16 counties in North Dakota. It was in force for 56 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 15, 2012, 7:49 PM CDT (00:49 UTC)
Expired: Jul 15, 2012, 8:45 PM CDT
In force: 56 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Benson County, ND, Bottineau County, ND, Burke County, ND, Cavalier County, ND, Eddy County, ND, McHenry County, ND, McLean County, ND, Mountrail County, ND, Pierce County, ND, Ramsey County, ND, Renville County, ND, Rolette County, ND, Sheridan County, ND, Towner County, ND, Ward County, ND, Wells County, ND

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 00:00Z, 0.8 hours before the alert went out and 183 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1118 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -60 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 2727 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 21 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 52 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 137 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 1.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

095 
ACUS11 KWNS 160050
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160049
NDZ000-160145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1473
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ND

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 486...

VALID 160049Z - 160145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 486 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
WRN/NRN PORTIONS OF WW486 OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

DISCUSSION...WARM FRONT HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AND
CURRENTLY STRETCHES ALONG THE ND/CANADIAN BORDER...EWD FROM A SFC
LOW OVER DIVIDE COUNTY.  STRONGEST SUPERCELL HAS EVOLVED ALONG THE
WARM FRONT JUST EAST OF THE SFC LOW AND THIS STORM SHOULD TRACK
ALONG THE BORDER WITH A POSSIBILITY FOR SLIGHT SWD DEVELOPMENT GIVEN
THAT GREATER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY RESIDE ACROSS THE BODY OF ND.
ADDITIONALLY...ONE STRONG HIGH BASED STORM OVER MCKENZIE COUNTY IN
WRN ND MAY SEE UPWARD GROWTH AS IT ENCOUNTERS MORE FAVORABLE
MOISTURE OVER WRN PORTIONS OF WW.  GIVEN THE SUSTAINED LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION NEAR THE FRONT OTHER UPDRAFTS MAY DEVELOP AND MATURE
INTO SUPERCELLS AS WELL.

..DARROW.. 07/16/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON   48980291 48979842 47529842 47520290 48980291

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 15, 10:54 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Benson, Bottineau, Burke, Cavalier, Eddy, McHenry and 10 more	66 min
Jul 16, 3:07 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Adams, Bowman, Emmons, Grant, Hettinger, Logan and 2 more	113 min
Jul 16, 3:53 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Adams, Bowman, Emmons, Grant, Hettinger, Sioux and 1 more	7 hr
Jul 16, 6:53 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Adams, Bowman, Emmons, Grant, Hettinger, Sioux and 1 more	67 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in North Dakota, 2012 Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.