Alert archive / Virginia / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 1406

July 5, 20125 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 5, 2012, 2:57 PM EDT for 5 states. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 5, 2012, 2:57 PM EDT (18:57 UTC)
Expired
Jul 5, 2012, 5:00 PM EDT
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 84 counties

Bath County, KY, Bell County, KY, Breathitt County, KY, Clay County, KY, Elliott County, KY, Estill County, KY, Floyd County, KY, Harlan County, KY, Jackson County, KY, Johnson County, KY, Knott County, KY, Knox County, KY, Laurel County, KY, Lee County, KY, Leslie County, KY, Letcher County, KY, Magoffin County, KY, Menifee County, KY, Montgomery County, KY, Morgan County, KY, Owsley County, KY, Perry County, KY, Pike County, KY, Powell County, KY, Rowan County, KY, Whitley County, KY, Wolfe County, KY, Alexander County, NC, Alleghany County, NC, Ashe County, NC, Avery County, NC, Caldwell County, NC, Mitchell County, NC, Stokes County, NC, Surry County, NC, Watauga County, NC, Wilkes County, NC, Yadkin County, NC, Carter County, TN, Claiborne County, TN, Grainger County, TN, Greene County, TN, Hamblen County, TN, Hancock County, TN, Hawkins County, TN, Johnson County, TN, Sullivan County, TN, Unicoi County, TN, Union County, TN, Washington County, TN, Alleghany County, VA, Bland County, VA, Botetourt County, VA, Buchanan County, VA, Carroll County, VA, City of Bristol, VA, City of Covington, VA, City of Galax, VA, City of Norton, VA, City of Radford, VA, City of Roanoke, VA, City of Salem, VA, Craig County, VA, Dickenson County, VA, Floyd County, VA, Giles County, VA, Grayson County, VA, Lee County, VA, Montgomery County, VA, Patrick County, VA, Pulaski County, VA, Roanoke County, VA, Russell County, VA, Scott County, VA, Smyth County, VA, Tazewell County, VA, Washington County, VA, Wise County, VA, Wythe County, VA, Greenbrier County, WV, McDowell County, WV, Mercer County, WV, Monroe County, WV, Summers County, WV

The radar

The Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 109 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:58 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Roanoke, VA (KRNK), launched 12:00Z, 7.0 hours before the alert went out and 237 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Roanoke, VA at 12:00Z on 2012-07-05Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 932 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Roanoke, VA at 12:00Z on 2012-07-05The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 78 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
932 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-109 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1190 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
21 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
78 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
66 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

397 
ACUS11 KWNS 051858
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051857
VAZ000-WVZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-052100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1406
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0157 PM CDT THU JUL 05 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY...WRN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 469...

VALID 051857Z - 052100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 469
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES FOR SRN PTN WW 469 FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE LINE DROPPING
S/SWD THROUGH WV AND INTO ERN KY...WRN VA AND EVENTUALLY NERN TN AND
NWRN NC.

DISCUSSION...ORGANIZED CONVECTION CONTINUE TO MOVE S/SWD INTO VERY
MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG OVER ERN
KY.  ALSO... NEWER STORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE ALONG WESTERN SIDE OF
WATCH AS ENTIRE COMPLEX MOVES S/SWD.  AS STORM COVERAGE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE...SEVERE THREAT IN WRN PTN WATCH MAY SHIFT MORE TO LARGE
HAIL WITH DAMAGING WINDS STILL MORE THE THREAT IN THE CNTRL/ERN PTN
OF THE WATCH.  NEW WW MAY BE POSSIBLE GENERALLY SW OF WW 469 ACROSS
PTNS MIDDLE/ERN TN AND SCNTRL KY.

..BOTHWELL/THOMPSON.. 07/05/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...

LAT...LON   36268400 36678427 37048431 37448420 37878414 38248396
            38358342 38198314 37928286 37678252 37568225 37468195
            37508136 37738096 38038037 38037991 37737974 37207987
            36748014 36268028 36018045 35838094 36018218 36128314
            36268400

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 5, 11:14 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBoyd, Breathitt, Carter, Elliott, Floyd, Greenup and 10 more91 min
Jul 5, 11:37 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBath, Bell, Boyd, Breathitt, Carter, Clay and 31 more7 hr
Jul 5, 3:19 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAdair, Casey, Clinton, Cumberland, Green, Metcalfe and 3 more6 hr
Jul 5, 1:11 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBuncombe, Cherokee, Clay, Graham, Haywood, Henderson and 9 more94 min
Jul 5, 1:37 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAlexander, Avery, Buncombe, Burke, Cabarrus, Caldwell and 22 more8 hr
Jul 5, 1:40 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnson, Beaufort, Bertie, Bladen, Brunswick, Chowan and 34 more95 min
Jul 5, 6:41 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBladen, Columbus, Robeson, Scotland94 min
Jul 5, 7:20 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBedford, Cannon, Cheatham, Coffee, Davidson, Franklin and 13 more115 min
Jul 4, 8:05 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClarke, Frederick, Loudoun, Rappahannock, Shenandoah, Warren and 1 more55 min
Jul 5, 3:29 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCEssex, King George, Lancaster, Northumberland, Richmond, Stafford and 1 more91 min
Jul 4, 9:48 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrooke, Hancock, Marshall, Ohio, Pleasants, Tyler87 min
Jul 4, 10:19 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBrooke, Hancock, Marshall, Ohio, Wetzel4 hr
Jul 5, 8:00 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrooke, Doddridge, Hancock, Marshall, Ohio, Pleasants and 4 more90 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Tennessee, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.