Alert archive / Ohio / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 1344

July 1, 201226 counties in Ohio

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 1, 2012, 5:45 PM EDT for 26 counties in Ohio. It was in force for 60 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 1, 2012, 5:45 PM EDT (21:45 UTC)
Expired: Jul 1, 2012, 6:45 PM EDT
In force: 60 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 26 counties

Athens County, OH, Champaign County, OH, Clark County, OH, Clinton County, OH, Darke County, OH, Delaware County, OH, Fairfield County, OH, Fayette County, OH, Franklin County, OH, Greene County, OH, Hocking County, OH, Jackson County, OH, Licking County, OH, Logan County, OH, Madison County, OH, Meigs County, OH, Miami County, OH, Montgomery County, OH, Morgan County, OH, Perry County, OH, Pickaway County, OH, Pike County, OH, Ross County, OH, Shelby County, OH, Union County, OH, Vinton County, OH

The radar

The Cincinnati radar (KILN), 49 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:48 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 448Jul 1, 6:00 PM EDT

The nearest sounding before it

Cncnati-Daytn, OH (KILN), launched 12:00Z, 9.8 hours before the alert went out and 47 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 2142 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -87 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1001 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 36 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 78 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 113 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.7
Supercell composite: 5.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

215 
ACUS11 KWNS 012145
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012145 
OHZ000-012245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1344
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0445 PM CDT SUN JUL 01 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL OHIO...WEST-CENTRAL OHIO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 443...446...

VALID 012145Z - 012245Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
443...446...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...AN INTENSE...BUT COMPACT STORM COMPLEX...WILL TRACK
ESEWD/SEWD INTO/ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL OHIO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...PERHAPS IMPACTING SWRN PARTS OF THE COLUMBUS AREA AROUND 700
PM EDT.

DISCUSSION...WITH 3000-4000 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND 30-35 KT OF EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR IN PLACE AHEAD OF AN INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER NOW
ENTERING CLARK COUNTY /STORM MOTION OF 35-40 KT/...ALONG WITH DCAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1400 J/KG...A HIGH-END SVR WIND THREAT WILL
EXIST ALONG THE TRACK OF THIS STORM. WITH OVER 75 KT OF FLOW SAMPLED
AROUND 2200 FT AGL IN ASSOCIATION WITH A REAR INFLOW CHANNEL
ATTENDANT TO THE STORM...SFC WINDS OVER 75 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
AND...9-KM CAPPI DATA WOULD SUGGEST DEEP CONVECTIVE CORES WITH SVR
HAIL...POTENTIALLY WIND-DRIVEN...ALSO LIKELY. GIVEN ITS COMPACT
NATURE AND CURRENT TRACK...THE COMPLEX MAY PASS JUST SOUTHWEST OF
THE COLUMBUS METROPOLITAN AREA...BUT POTENTIALLY CLIP SWRN SUBURBS
INCLUDING GROVE CITY AROUND 700 PM EDT. CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THAT
NRN SUBURBS FROM DUBLIN TOWARD WORTHINGTON...WESTERVILLE...AND NEW
ALBANY MAY AVOID IMPACTS FROM SVR STORMS IN THE SHORT TERM.

ADDITIONAL INTENSE STORMS DEVELOPING WELL SOUTH OF THE COLUMBUS AREA
MAY POSE A SVR THREAT INTO FAYETTE/PICKAWAY/ROSS COUNTIES DURING THE
NEXT HOUR.

..COHEN.. 07/01/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...ILN...

LAT...LON   39288388 39608440 40098478 40398458 40508414 40498347
            40098222 39578163 39098187 38978255 39058320 39288388

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 1, 1:16 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Allen, Auglaize, Champaign, Clark, Darke, Defiance and 11 more	6 hr
Jul 1, 3:56 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Allen, Athens, Auglaize, Champaign, Clark, Clinton and 36 more	94 min
Jul 1, 4:32 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Athens, Belmont, Carroll, Clinton, Columbiana, Coshocton and 28 more	6 hr
Jul 1, 5:19 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Ashland, Crawford, Erie, Fulton, Hancock, Henry and 16 more	56 min
Jul 1, 5:40 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Ashland, Crawford, Cuyahoga, Erie, Geauga, Hancock and 19 more	4 hr
Jul 1, 5:59 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Adams, Brown, Butler, Clermont, Hamilton, Scioto	5 hr
Jul 1, 6:47 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Ashland, Coshocton, Crawford, Erie, Hancock, Holmes and 14 more	58 min
Jul 1, 7:22 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Carroll, Columbiana, Geauga, Harrison, Jefferson, Mahoning and 4 more	83 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Ohio, 2012 Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.