Mesoscale Discussion 133

Issued

Feb 18, 2012, 11:36 PM EST (04:36 UTC)

Expired

Feb 19, 2012, 1:00 AM EST

In force

84 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

The Tallahassee radar (KTLH), 59 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:36 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

480 
ACUS11 KWNS 190437
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190436
GAZ000-FLZ000-190600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0133
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1036 PM CST SAT FEB 18 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN GA AND NRN FL /INCLUDING THE CENTRAL AND ERN FL
PANHANDLE/

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 32...

VALID 190436Z - 190600Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 32 CONTINUES.

...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...
AT 0425Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS
MOVING ENE AT 40-45 KT IN SERN GA /WARE COUNTY/.  DESPITE VERY WEAK
INSTABILITY INVOF AND DOWNSTREAM OF THIS ACTIVITY TO THE GA
COAST...STRONG KINEMATICS /40-50 KT SSWLY LLJ BENEATH WLY 700 MB
WINDS OF 60 KT AND 95 KT WLY MIDLEVEL WINDS OVER SRN GA/ WILL
MAINTAIN THE RATHER FAST STORM MOTION AND ATTENDANT THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS.  ALTHOUGH THIS LINE OF STORMS IN SERN GA MAY BE
ELEVATED...THE PRESENCE OF EFFECTIVE SRH 150-300 M2/S2 SUGGESTS AN
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF A TORNADO...AND THIS THREAT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

A SIMILAR THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES MAY BE DEVELOPING
FARTHER SWWD OVER THE FL PANHANDLE...WHERE RECENT RADAR IMAGERY
INDICATED EMBEDDED BOW STRUCTURES FROM SRN JACKSON TO BAY COUNTIES
FL.  35-40 KT WLY WINDS AT 1.5-2 KM AGL PER THE EGLIN AFB WSR-88D
MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT IN ENHANCING A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS
THIS ACTIVITY ADVANCES EWD.

...THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL RATES/TRAINING STORMS...
A PORTION OF THE COLD POOL EXTENDING FROM LANIER COUNTY GA WSWWD TO
ERN JACKSON COUNTY FL HAS BECOME NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE WSWLY MEAN
FLOW.  STORMS WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY TRAIN EWD DURING THE
LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SWRN TIER OF GA COUNTIES AND
ADJACENT FL COUNTIES /I.E. A 30 MILE WIDE AREA EXTENDING FROM 15 S
MAI-15 E VLD/.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.6 INCH PER 00Z
TLH SOUNDING SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL RATES...WHILE A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AS STORMS TRAIN TO THE ENE.

..PETERS.. 02/19/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON   30298596 30848508 31028417 31148351 31318282 31858279
            31948254 31888210 31418150 31228127 30668144 30738174
            30588201 30168205 29888268 29688341 29638411 29268482
            29258531 29378563 29518590 29758616 29948624 30298596

Mesoscale Discussions in Georgia, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.