Alert archive / Montana / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012
Mesoscale Discussion 1287
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 26, 2012, 6:16 AM MDT for 6 counties in Montana. It was in force for 89 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 26, 2012, 6:16 AM MDT (12:16 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 26, 2012, 7:45 AM MDT
- In force
- 89 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
Counties Glacier County, MT, Hill County, MT, Liberty County, MT, Pondera County, MT, Teton County, MT, Toole County, MT
The radar
The Great Falls radar (KTFX), 123 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 12:16 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Great_falls, MT (KTFX), launched 12:00Z, 0.3 hours before the alert went out and 162 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1099 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -173 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 763 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 53 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 223 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 481 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 20.6
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
473 ACUS11 KWNS 261217 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261216 MTZ000-261345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1287 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0716 AM CDT TUE JUN 26 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NWRN/N CNTRL MT CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 261216Z - 261345Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT SUMMARY...THE NEED FOR A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THAT COULD DEVELOP DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS...INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. DISCUSSION...SCATTERED...VIGOROUS DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT HAS PERSISTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS HAS BEEN ..SUPPORTED BY...AND BASED WITHIN...AN ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION REGIME...ABOVE A STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...DOWNSTREAM OF A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LARGE-SCALE FORCING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 15-18Z TIME FRAME...SO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY TO PERSIST. OCCASIONAL SEVERE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION MAY EVENTUALLY YIELD A MORE SUBSTANTIVE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...WITH INTENSIFYING SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE CLOSER TO 18Z...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF GREAT FALLS...NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER...BETWEEN CUT BANK AND HAVRE. ..KERR/CORFIDI.. 06/26/2012 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TFX...MSO... LAT...LON 48721415 49301174 48860930 47571130 47231295 48721415
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 25, 7:12 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Blaine, Chouteau, Dawson, Fergus, Garfield, Hill and 11 more | 93 min |
| Jun 25, 10:27 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Blaine, Chouteau, Fergus, Garfield, Hill, Liberty and 3 more | 93 min |
| Jun 26, 12:23 AM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Blaine, Chouteau, Hill | 67 min |
| Jun 26, 11:08 AM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Blaine, Cascade, Chouteau, Glacier, Hill, Liberty and 3 more | 37 min |
| Jun 26, 11:20 AM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Blaine, Cascade, Chouteau, Glacier, Hill, Lewis and Clark and 4 more | 6 hr |
| Jun 26, 2:06 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Daniels, Dawson, Fallon, McCone, Phillips, Prairie and 5 more | 54 min |
| Jun 26, 2:21 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Blaine, Cascade, Chouteau, Hill, Lewis and Clark, Liberty and 3 more | 54 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Montana, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.