Alert archive / Montana / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 1284

June 25, 20129 counties in Montana

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 25, 2012, 10:27 PM MDT for 9 counties in Montana. It was in force for 93 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 25, 2012, 10:27 PM MDT (04:27 UTC)
Expired
Jun 26, 2012, 12:00 AM MDT
In force
93 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Blaine County, MT, Chouteau County, MT, Fergus County, MT, Garfield County, MT, Hill County, MT, Liberty County, MT, Petroleum County, MT, Phillips County, MT, Toole County, MT

The radar

The Great Falls radar (KTFX), 142 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:28 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Great_falls, MT (KTFX), launched 00:00Z, 4.5 hours before the alert went out and 96 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Great_falls, MT at 00:00Z on 2012-06-26Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1195 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Great_falls, MT at 00:00Z on 2012-06-26The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 34 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1195 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-265 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1952 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
59 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
34 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
154 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
-0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

175 
ACUS11 KWNS 260427
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260427 
MTZ000-260600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1284
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 PM CDT MON JUN 25 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN THROUGH NCNTRL MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 430...

VALID 260427Z - 260600Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 430
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...AT LEAST A MODEST THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL PERSIST THROUGH 06Z.

DISCUSSION...STORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER NCNTRL MT
WITH OTHER ACTIVITY PERSISTING OVER NWRN MT MOST LIKELY WITHIN ZONE
OF MID LEVEL ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN EJECTING UPPER JET STREAK.
OVERALL MARGINAL INTENSITY OF THE STORMS AND A STRONGLY CAPPED
BOUNDARY LAYER INDICATE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY DEVELOPING ABOVE THE
INVERSION AND ROOTED NEAR 700 MB...WHICH SUBSTANTIALLY LOWERS THE
AMOUNT OF CAPE AVAILABLE TO THE UPDRAFTS. NEVERTHELESS...THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND PRESENCE OF DRY AIR BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB SUGGEST A
FEW STORMS MIGHT REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED LOCALLY STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND HAIL NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

..DIAL.. 06/26/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GGW...TFX...

LAT...LON   48791225 48920884 48720697 47030664 46890930 47521185
            48791225

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 25, 7:12 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBlaine, Chouteau, Dawson, Fergus, Garfield, Hill and 11 more93 min
Jun 26, 12:23 AM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBlaine, Chouteau, Hill67 min
Jun 26, 6:16 AM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCGlacier, Hill, Liberty, Pondera, Teton, Toole89 min
Jun 26, 11:08 AM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBlaine, Cascade, Chouteau, Glacier, Hill, Liberty and 3 more37 min
Jun 26, 11:20 AM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBlaine, Cascade, Chouteau, Glacier, Hill, Lewis and Clark and 4 more6 hr
Jun 26, 2:06 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDaniels, Dawson, Fallon, McCone, Phillips, Prairie and 5 more54 min
Jun 26, 2:21 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBlaine, Cascade, Chouteau, Hill, Lewis and Clark, Liberty and 3 more54 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Montana, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.