Alert archive / Wisconsin / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 1232

June 20, 20129 counties in Minnesota; 15 counties in Wisconsin

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 20, 2012, 9:40 AM CDT for 9 counties in Minnesota; 15 counties in Wisconsin. It was in force for 95 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 20, 2012, 9:40 AM CDT (14:40 UTC)
Expired: Jun 20, 2012, 11:15 AM CDT
In force: 95 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 40%

All 24 counties

Anoka County, MN, Benton County, MN, Chisago County, MN, Isanti County, MN, Kanabec County, MN, Mille Lacs County, MN, Pine County, MN, Ramsey County, MN, Washington County, MN, Barron County, WI, Bayfield County, WI, Burnett County, WI, Chippewa County, WI, Clark County, WI, Douglas County, WI, Dunn County, WI, Pierce County, WI, Polk County, WI, Price County, WI, Rusk County, WI, Saint Croix County, WI, Sawyer County, WI, Taylor County, WI, Washburn County, WI

The radar

The Minneapolis radar (KMPX), 134 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 14:39 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Minneapolis, MN (KMPX), launched 12:00Z, 2.7 hours before the alert went out and 136 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 737 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -116 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 974 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 45 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 272 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 358 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.7
Supercell composite: 15.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

199 
ACUS11 KWNS 201440
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201440 
WIZ000-MNZ000-201615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1232
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0940 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF E CENTRAL MN AND INTO NWRN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 201440Z - 201615Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...FAST-MOVING/BOWING STORM CLUSTER MAY POSE A RISK OF
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

DISCUSSION...LATEST VWP/PROFILER DATA SHOWS STRONG WSWLY FLOW
THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE ACROSS THE SERN QUARTER OF
MN ATTM...CONTRIBUTING TO THE FAST /65 KT/ NEWD MOVEMENT OF A BOWING
STORM CLUSTER OVER E CENTRAL MN ATTM.  WHILE THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF
THE CONVECTION IS ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ATTM...BROKEN CLOUD COVER
EVIDENT DOWNSTREAM WILL PERMIT CONTINUED HEATING/MODEST
DESTABILIZATION THIS MORNING.  THE DESTABILIZING AIRMASS SHOULD
ALLOW THE CONVECTION TO PERSIST/POSSIBLY INCREASE...ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN UPTICK IN POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING
WINDS.  WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THERMODYNAMIC EVOLUTION ACROSS
THIS REGION AS IT PERTAINS TO POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

..GOSS/HART.. 06/20/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON   44729315 45379357 45609411 46079387 46299285 46769118
            46279016 45548995 44739035 44729315

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 19, 7:01 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Cottonwood, Jackson, Lincoln, Lyon, Murray, Nobles and 2 more	7 hr
Jun 19, 9:12 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Anoka, Benton, Big Stone, Chippewa, Chisago, Douglas and 22 more	93 min
Jun 19, 9:17 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Aitkin, Becker, Cass, Clay, Crow Wing, Hubbard and 7 more	88 min
Jun 19, 11:20 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Big Stone, Traverse	5 hr
Jun 19, 11:37 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Aitkin, Benton, Big Stone, Carlton, Cass, Chippewa and 22 more	83 min
Jun 20, 4:00 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Lac qui Parle	60 min
Jun 20, 5:27 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Aitkin, Carlton, Crow Wing, Mille Lacs, Morrison	2 hr
Jun 20, 2:10 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Blue Earth, Dakota, Dodge, Faribault, Fillmore, Freeborn and 11 more	95 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Wisconsin, 2012 Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2012 Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.