Alert archive / Oklahoma / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012
Mesoscale Discussion 1126
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 11, 2012, 3:59 PM CDT for 5 counties in Arkansas; 28 counties in Oklahoma. It was in force for 91 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 11, 2012, 3:59 PM CDT (20:59 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 11, 2012, 5:30 PM CDT
- In force
- 91 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 40%
All 33 counties
Crawford County, AR, Polk County, AR, Scott County, AR, Sebastian County, AR, Washington County, AR, Adair County, OK, Atoka County, OK, Cherokee County, OK, Cleveland County, OK, Coal County, OK, Creek County, OK, Delaware County, OK, Haskell County, OK, Hughes County, OK, Johnston County, OK, Latimer County, OK, LeFlore County, OK, Lincoln County, OK, Mayes County, OK, McCurtain County, OK, McIntosh County, OK, Muskogee County, OK, Okfuskee County, OK, Okmulgee County, OK, Pittsburg County, OK, Pontotoc County, OK, Pottawatomie County, OK, Pushmataha County, OK, Rogers County, OK, Seminole County, OK, Sequoyah County, OK, Tulsa County, OK, Wagoner County, OK
The radar
The Tulsa radar (KINX), 116 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:56 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Norman, OK (KOUN), launched 12:00Z, 9.0 hours before the alert went out and 144 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 3329 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -435 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1295 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 12 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 392 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 404 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
940
ACUS11 KWNS 112059
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112059
ARZ000-OKZ000-112230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1126
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...OK...AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 112059Z - 112230Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR EVENING TSTM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS PARTS OF ERN OK AND WRN AR. VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS
THESE AREAS WOULD SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND HIGH
WINDS IF CONVECTION CAN OVERCOME CONSIDERABLE CAPPING CURRENTLY IN
PLACE.
DISCUSSION...PERSISTENT CONVERGENCE NEAR FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
INTERSECTION ACROSS NERN OK...IN CONCERT WITH VERY HOT AND LOCALLY
EXTREME INSTABILITY /MLCAPE TO AT LEAST 3000 J PER KG/...MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS.
LATEST INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT STORM INITIATION IS BEING INHIBITED
BY 1) VERY WARM AIR ALOFT ACTING TO KEEP AIR MASS CAPPED...AND 2)
LACK OF GREATER LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION.
LATEST GUIDANCE PROVIDES MIXED SIGNALS ON WIDESPREAD TSTM
DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL WITH RAPID REFRESH INDICATING STORM INITIATION
BY 00Z...NAM SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEVELOPMENT...AND 18Z HRRR
SHOWING ONLY ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS NWRN AR AND ERN OK IN THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS. IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP...MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND
MODEST WLY FLOW AROUND 30KT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH
LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS POSSIBLE. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED AND A WATCH IS POSSIBLE IF STORM DEVELOPMENT BEGINS TO
OCCUR.
..CARBIN/MEAD.. 06/11/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...OUN...
LAT...LON 35199734 34569715 34279680 34049584 34069460 34349388
35169382 36189406 36629533 36449644 35779727 35199734SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 11, 9:31 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Baxter, Benton, Boone, Carroll, Clay, Cleburne and 16 more | 59 min |
| Jun 11, 9:45 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Baxter, Benton, Boone, Carroll, Clay, Cleburne and 23 more | 6 hr |
| Jun 11, 1:12 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Arkansas, Craighead, Crittenden, Cross, Faulkner, Garland and 17 more | 93 min |
| Jun 11, 1:28 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Arkansas, Cleveland, Crittenden, Cross, Dallas, Faulkner and 19 more | 7 hr |
| Jun 11, 3:29 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Arkansas, Cleveland, Crittenden, Cross, Dallas, Garland and 14 more | 2 hr |
| Jun 11, 5:05 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Arkansas, Calhoun, Cleburne, Cleveland, Conway, Craighead and 27 more | 55 min |
| Jun 11, 5:17 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Ashley, Chicot | 6 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.