Mesoscale Discussion 112

Issued

Feb 4, 2012, 3:42 AM CST (09:42 UTC)

Expired

Feb 4, 2012, 6:45 AM CST

In force

3 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

The Ft Hood radar (KGRK), 100 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:42 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

510 
ACUS11 KWNS 040943
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040942
TXZ000-041245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0112
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0342 AM CST SAT FEB 04 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SE TX.

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL

VALID 040942Z - 041245Z

INITIALLY WIDELY SCATTERED AREAS OF 1-3 INCH/HOUR RAIN RATES MAY
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS BAND OF TSTMS OVER S-CENTRAL THROUGH
E-CENTRAL TX BECOMES BETTER-DEFINED BY FRONTAL INTRUSION/ASCENT.
PEAK OF HEAVY RAIN THREAT...INCLUDING SUSTAINED RAINFALL WITH
SLOW-MOVING/MERGING/TRAINING CELLS...WILL BE THROUGH 12Z.

09Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED COLD FRONT...EXTENDING SWWD FROM WEAK
LOW OVER WRN AR TO JUST SE OF TXK-GGG-HDO LINE.  FRONT HAS CAUGHT UP
TO PRE-EXISTING CONVECTIVE BAND FROM ABOUT I-45 SWWD...AND SHOULD DO
SO OVER REMAINDER E TX SEGMENT DURING NEXT 2 HOURS.  COLD FRONT HAS
UNDERCUT TSTM LINE OVER SAT AREA...THOUGH CONVECTION IS PERSISTING
AND MAY EVEN BACKBUILD AS FRONTAL ASCENT ACTS ON FAVORABLE
MOISTURE/BUOYANCY IN ELEVATED LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS.  ENHANCED LIFT
FROM FRONTAL FORCING ALL ALONG THIS BAND...AND STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW
AIDED BY BROAD/20-30 KT LLJ...WILL ACT TO CONCENTRATE/ENHANCE PRECIP
FIELDS.  INFLOW SECTOR WILL REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S SFC DEW POINTS...LAYER RH AOA 90%...AND PW REACHING 1.5-1.75
INCH RANGE.  PRECIP LOADING ALSO MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THREAT FOR
ISOLATED/LOCALIZED DAMAGING GUSTS...HOWEVER SVR HAZARD APPEARS TOO
DISORGANIZED FOR WW AND IS SECONDARY TO THREAT FROM HEAVY RAIN.  AS
FRONT CONTINUES TO CROSS S AND SE TX...ESPECIALLY AFTER ABOUT
12Z...NET SEWD MOTION OF TSTM BAND SHOULD ACCELERATE...REDUCING
AMOUNT OF TIME THAT HEAVIEST RAIN RATES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN OVER
MOST SPOTS.

..EDWARDS.. 02/04/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   29369925 29569821 30569620 31559472 31589382 30919374
            29709549 28909760 28559894 28829946 29369925

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.