Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012

Mesoscale Discussion 1032

June 3, 2012Meade County, Kansas; 4 counties in Oklahoma; 7 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 3, 2012, 3:25 PM CDT for Meade County, Kansas; 4 counties in Oklahoma; 7 counties in Texas. It was in force for 95 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 3, 2012, 3:25 PM CDT (20:25 UTC)
Expired
Jun 3, 2012, 5:00 PM CDT
In force
95 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
80%

Counties Meade County, KS, Beaver County, OK, Ellis County, OK, Harper County, OK, Roger Mills County, OK, Collingsworth County, TX, Donley County, TX, Gray County, TX, Hemphill County, TX, Lipscomb County, TX, Roberts County, TX, Wheeler County, TX

The radar

The Amarillo radar (KAMA), 131 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:30 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 12:00Z, 8.4 hours before the alert went out and 130 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Amarillo Airport, TX at 12:00Z on 2012-06-03Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 753 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Amarillo Airport, TX at 12:00Z on 2012-06-03The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 116 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
753 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-234 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1813 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
34 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
116 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
301 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
4.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

447 
ACUS11 KWNS 032026
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032025
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-032200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1032
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0325 PM CDT SUN JUN 03 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX/OK PANHANDLE...NWRN OK...PORTIONS OF SWRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 032025Z - 032200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE FROM
THE ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO PORTIONS OF SWRN KS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.  WATCH WILL LIKELY BE WARRANTED FOR THIS ACTIVITY.

DISCUSSION...STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING ACROSS THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO NEAR-DRY ADIABATIC LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WITH RESULTANT LOW LEVEL PARCELS NOW APPROACHING THEIR CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES.  LATEST VIS IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS WITH SCATTERED CU
DEVELOPING ALONG PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE ZONE THAT CURRENTLY
STRETCHES FROM LIPSCOMB TO DONLEY COUNTIES IN THE ERN TX PANHANDLE.
THIS DEVELOPING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEEPEN OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH MATURATION INTO ONE OR MORE SEVERE COMPLEXES ACROSS
WRN/NRN OK LATER THIS EVENING.  THIS EVOLUTION IS POSSIBLE DUE TO A
WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THAT IS MIGRATING INTO THIS REGION AND
EXPECTED DIURNAL INCREASE IN LLJ THAT SHOULD FOCUS INTO CNTRL OK
AFTER DARK.  INITIAL TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGH BASED WITH
A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS...ESPECIALLY IF
SUPERCELL-LIKE STRUCTURES CAN EVOLVE.  HOWEVER...MOISTURE DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS OK IS SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER AND GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT STRONGER
LOW LEVEL SHEAR A TORNADO OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
REGARDLESS...VERY LARGE HAIL AND POTENTIALLY MORE WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE NOTED WITH MCS ACTIVITY THIS EVENING.

..DARROW/CARBIN.. 06/03/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   35260112 37320036 37149926 34989994 34670075 35260112

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 2, 8:12 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCheyenne, Clark, Decatur, Finney, Ford, Gove and 24 more2 hr
Jun 3, 6:40 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCBarber, Chautauqua, Clark, Comanche, Cowley, Harper and 2 more3 hr
Jun 2, 10:59 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAlfalfa, Beckham, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Custer and 11 more4 hr
Jun 3, 1:23 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBlaine, Caddo, Canadian, Garfield, Grant, Kay and 4 more67 min
Jun 3, 2:57 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCleveland, Creek, Lincoln, McClain, Pawnee, Payne and 1 more33 min
Jun 3, 2:27 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Cherokee2 hr
Jun 3, 3:28 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAdair, Cherokee, Delaware, Ottawa, Sequoyah6 hr
Jun 3, 3:38 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrewster, Jeff Davis, Presidio, Reeves97 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.