Mesoscale Discussion 1015

Issued

Jun 1, 2012, 6:03 PM CDT (23:03 UTC)

Expired

Jun 1, 2012, 8:00 PM CDT

In force

117 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Chance of a watch

60%

The Amarillo radar (KAMA), 93 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:03 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

• Severe Thunderstorm Watch 337Jun 1, 6:25 PM CDT

229 
ACUS11 KWNS 012304
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012303
OKZ000-TXZ000-020100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1015
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0603 PM CDT FRI JUN 01 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...TX SOUTH PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF WRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 012303Z - 020100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A SEVERE THREAT SOUTH OF WW
335 INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS
POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING. GREATER UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FARTHER EAST
ACROSS WRN AND SWRN OK WHERE STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO POST A MARGINAL
WIND/HAIL THREAT.

DISCUSSION...SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE SOUTH OF WW 335 INTO
PORTIONS OF THE TX SOUTH PLAINS/WRN NORTH TX WHERE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE SIMILAR TO THOSE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WHERE SUPERCELL
STORMS WERE CURRENTLY PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
STRONG DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONG
UPDRAFTS/ROTATING STORMS FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER SEVERAL HOURS. FURTHER
SOUTH TOWARD THE PERMIAN BASIN DEEP LAYER SHEAR BECOMES MUCH WEAKER
AND STORMS SHOULD BECOME LESS ORGANIZED AND WEAKEN.

MORE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF STORMS ACROSS THE ERN
OK/TX PANHANDLES. LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY ARE LESS FAVORABLE
ACROSS WRN INTO CNTRL OK AS CLOUD COVER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY HAS LED
TO COOL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE AND
GENERALLY STABLE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...A BAROCLINIC ZONE/THERMAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS FAR WRN INTO SWRN OK WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE ABLE TO
WARM INTO THE 80S AND LOW 90S THIS AFTERNOON HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME
DESTABILIZATION AND COUPLED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER FLOW...STORMS MAY
LATCH ON TO THIS BOUNDARY AND CONTINUE SEWD INTO THE EVENING HOURS
AND POSE A HAIL AND STRONG WIND THREAT.  THEREFORE...A NEW WATCH MAY
BE NEEDED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF 335 IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. AN
AERIAL EXTENSION OF WW 335 MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WFO OUN/S CWA AS WELL TO COVER THE POTENTIAL THREAT.

..LEITMAN/CORFIDI.. 06/01/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   34740276 34410291 33800271 33440201 33240061 33429877
            35459860 36399897 36899945 36949991 36680001 34729999
            34740276

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.