Special Weather Statement, NWS Salt Lake City, UT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
254 PM MDT SAT SEP 1 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
TODAY. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO ALL BUT SOUTHEAST UTAH TOMORROW.
MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY RETURN TO SOUTHERN UTAH DURING THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IS
DRAWING MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO MUCH OF THE STATE. PWS ARE HIGHEST
OVER SOUTHEAST UTAH...WHERE SATELLITE INDICATES VALUES IN EXCESS
OF ONE INCH. 0.8-1.0 INCH VALUES ARE COMMON OVER MUCH OF THE REST
OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST UTAH
HAS DROPPED PWS INTO THE 0.5-0.6 RANGE. GIVEN THIS DRYING...HAVE
DECIDED TO REMOVE SOUTHWEST UTAH FROM THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTHERN UTAH SO HAVE
KEPT THE WATCH GOING FOR THOSE AREAS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST WYOMING. AMPLE
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE TROUGH
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND GOOD JET SUPPORT IS CREATING AN
UNUSUALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR LARGE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS. THREAT
LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE THE VORT MAX MOVES
OUT OF THE AREA AND DRIER AIR STARTS TO SPREAD NORTHWARD.

DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. PWS IN THE 0.3-0.5 RANGE SHOULD BE COMMON BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON OVER ALL BUT SOUTHEAST UTAH...LIMITING CONVECTION.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER...AND PWS IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH SHOULD SUPPORT
SOME CONVECTION EVEN IN THE ABSENCE OF A WELL DEFINED FORCING
MECHANISM. GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
SIMILAR ON MONDAY AND SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD TUESDAY THROUGH THE
LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK...KEEPING SOME CONVECTION AROUND. 12Z
ECMWF IS DRIER...HOWEVER...AS IT KEEPS A MORE W/NW FLOW ALOFT. EC
INDICATES SOME MOISTURE CREEPING BACK NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY IN RESPONSE TO A PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TROUGH MOVING ACROSS CANADA. BEHIND THIS TROUGH...BOTH
MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE AXIS AMPLIFYING OVER THE STATE...BRINGING
DRIER AIR BACK TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH TEMPS SLOWLY WARMING TO A BIT ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS BY WIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AT
KSLC TERMINAL. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TERMINAL LOOKS TO BE
MINIMAL THROUGH 22Z THE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY
BETWEEN 22 AND 24Z WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS AND A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR MVFR VIS. THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER THROUGH ABOUT 03Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WIDESPREAD STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE GREATEST AND COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH WHERE THERE IS JET SUPPORT ALOFT. STORMS ARE MORE
ISOLATED ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH...BUT WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH THESE STORMS...EXPECT LIGHTNING...HAIL...GUSTY
WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN UTAH THIS
EVENING...DIMINISHING STORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...ACROSS NORTHERN
UTAH...STORMS WILL CONTINUE PAST SUNSET.

A DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW...AND BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON
MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED TO SOUTHEASTERN UTAH...WHERE ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
TOMORROW...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN TO SEE CRITICAL WINDS. HOWEVER...WITH BORDERLINE RH
VALUES...DO NOT FEEL THAT A RED FLAG WARNING IS NECESSARY.
MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE STATE FROM THE SOUTH MIDWEEK NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
     UTZ008-010-012-013-020-021-517-518.

     SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
     UTZ001>016-517-518.

WY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
     WYZ021.

&&

PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
FIRE WEATHER...HOSENFELD
AVIATION...STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
224 PM MDT SAT SEP 1 2012

UTZ001>016-019>021-517-518-WYZ021-021400-
CACHE VALLEY/UTAH PORTION-NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT-
SALT LAKE AND TOOELE VALLEYS-SOUTHERN WASATCH FRONT-
GREAT SALT LAKE DESERT AND MOUNTAINS-WASATCH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS-
WASATCH MOUNTAINS I-80 NORTH-WASATCH MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF I-80-
WESTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS-WASATCH PLATEAU/BOOK CLIFFS-
WESTERN UINTA BASIN-CASTLE COUNTRY-SAN RAFAEL SWELL-
SANPETE/SEVIER VALLEYS-WEST CENTRAL UTAH-SOUTHWEST UTAH-
UTAHS DIXIE AND ZION NATIONAL PARK-SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH-
GLEN CANYON RECREATION AREA/LAKE POWELL-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS-SOUTHWEST WYOMING-
224 PM MDT SAT SEP 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THESE STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN UTAH...AND FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN
THE MORE FLOOD PRONE AREAS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH SUCH
AS SLOT CANYONS... NORMALLY DRY WASHES AND RECENT BURN SCARS. SOME
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
UTAH...WITH LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THE MOST LIKELY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

DRYING WILL SPREAD INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OUTLOOK AREA
SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE.

SOME MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
AREA WHERE THE THREAT OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
...THEN WORK BACK NORTH AROUND MIDWEEK BRINGING A GREATER THREAT
OF
THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THAT AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR INFORMATION ON POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPACTS VISIT...
HTTP://WWW.UDOTTRAFFIC.UTAH.GOV/ROADWEATHERFORECAST.ASPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
308 PM MDT SAT SEP 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     DEBRIS FLOW      4 S LEAMINGTON          39.47N 112.29W
09/01/2012                   MILLARD            UT   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DEBRIS FLOW OFF OF THE CLAY SPRINGS BURN SCAR FLOODED 3
            HOMES IN FOOLS CREEK AND DAMAGED PORTIONS OF UTAH HIGHWAY
            125.

&&

GM

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
442 PM MDT SAT SEP 1 2012

UTZ002-006-007-012330-
NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT UT-WASATCH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS UT-WASATCH
MOUNTAINS I-80 NORTH UT-
442 PM MDT SAT SEP 1 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN MORGAN...SOUTHERN
CACHE...NORTHERN DAVIS...WEBER AND EASTERN BOX ELDER COUNTIES UNTIL
530 PM MDT...

AT 440 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF HOOPER...OR 15 MILES WEST OF
OGDEN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

DIME TO PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
   WEST WARREN... CLINTON AND  SUNSET...
   WARREN... WEST WEBER... ROY AND  RIVERDALE...
   PLAIN CITY... SLATERVILLE... WILSON AND  SOUTH OGDEN...
   FARR WEST... HARRISVILLE AND  OGDEN...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY....AND A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS
AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS
LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS....FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4153 11190 4114 11155 4110 11228 4125 11241
TIME...MOT...LOC 2242Z 235DEG 28KT 4123 11224

MPS