Special Weather Statement, NWS Salt Lake City, UT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1019 AM MDT SAT SEP 1 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
TODAY. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO ALL BUT SOUTHEAST UTAH TOMORROW.
SOUTHERN UTAH WILL REMAIN MOIST FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK
WHILE DRIER AIR STAYS OVER NORTHERN UTAH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST HAS INCREASED
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...DRAWING
MOISTURE NORTHWARD. SATELLITE DERIVED PWS ARE IN THE 0.7 TO 0.9
INCH RANGE OVER THE STATE...AND MODELS INDICATE WIDESPREAD 1.0
INCH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON...AND AS HIGH AS 1.2 INCH IN SOUTHEAST
UTAH. ADDITIONALLY...EJECTING SHORTWAVES OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN
TROUGH WILL PROVIDE FOR ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY...PARTICULARLY OVER
NORTHERN UTAH. SOME DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO FAR
SOUTHWEST UTAH THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY LIMIT CONVECTION A BIT
IN THOSE AREAS. HOWEVER...FLOODING POTENTIAL REMAINS SO GOING
WATCH FOR SOUTHERN UTAH LOOKS GOOD. UPDATED EARLIER TO RAISE POPS
OVER SOUTHEAST UTAH WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE IS. NO ADDITIONAL
UPDATES PLANNED.

THE DRIER AIR MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST UTAH LOOKS TO PUSH INTO ALL
BUT SOUTHEAST UTAH TOMORROW SO CONVECTION WILL BE MUCH MORE
LIMITED IN COVERAGE TOMORROW AND MONDAY. FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE WESTERLY BEGINNING TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES FLATTENS OUT IN RESPONSE TO A PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW
MOISTURE TO CREEP BACK INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST UTAH AS NORTHERN
UTAH REMAINS DRY. MODELS INDICATE THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT MORE
SIGNIFICANT DRYING WILL OCCUR BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z...BUT THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT WINDS
WILL SHIFT LATER THAN EXPECTED OR SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF
THE TERMINAL WILL LIKELY CAUSE PERIODS OF GUSTY AND/OR ERRATIC
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT A THUNDERSTORM WILL DIRECTLY IMPACT THE
TERMINAL DURING THAT TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON
STATEWIDE. WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE...THE MAJORITY OF STORMS WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY WETTING RAIN. WITH JET ENERGY OVER THE
STATE...SOME STORMS MAY BECOME ESPECIALLY STRONG.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...DECREASING COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS. STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON PRIMARILY ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN UTAH...BUT WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD THAN TODAY.  DRY AIR
WILL REMAIN OVER THE STATE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE RETURNS LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     UTZ008-010-012-013-016-019>021-517-518.

WY...NONE.
&&

PUBLIC/AVIATION...TRAPHAGAN
FIRE WEATHER...HOSENFELD

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
644 AM MDT SAT SEP 1 2012

UTZ001>016-019>021-517-518-WYZ021-021200-
CACHE VALLEY/UTAH PORTION-NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT-
SALT LAKE AND TOOELE VALLEYS-SOUTHERN WASATCH FRONT-
GREAT SALT LAKE DESERT AND MOUNTAINS-WASATCH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS-
WASATCH MOUNTAINS I-80 NORTH-WASATCH MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF I-80-
WESTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS-WASATCH PLATEAU/BOOK CLIFFS-
WESTERN UINTA BASIN-CASTLE COUNTRY-SAN RAFAEL SWELL-
SANPETE/SEVIER VALLEYS-WEST CENTRAL UTAH-SOUTHWEST UTAH-
UTAHS DIXIE AND ZION NATIONAL PARK-SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH-
GLEN CANYON RECREATION AREA/LAKE POWELL-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS-SOUTHWEST WYOMING-
644 AM MDT SAT SEP 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN OUTLOOK AREA INTO MID MORNING...AND WILL
REDEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA LATE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING.

THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THESE STORMS
AND FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE MORE FLOOD PRONE
AREAS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH SUCH AS SLOT CANYONS...
NORMALLY DRY WASHES AND RECENT BURN SCARS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

DRYING WILL SPREAD INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OUTLOOK AREA
SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.

SOME MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
AREA WHERE THE THREAT OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
...THEN WORK BACK NORTH AROUND MIDWEEK BRINGING A GREATER THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THAT AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR INFORMATION ON POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPACTS VISIT...
HTTP://WWW.UDOTTRAFFIC.UTAH.GOV/ROADWEATHERFORECAST.ASPX

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1104 AM MDT SAT SEP 1 2012

UTZ015-011800-
WEST CENTRAL UTAH UT-
1104 AM MDT SAT SEP 1 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN MILLARD COUNTY UNTIL NOON
MDT...

AT 1100 AM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
PAIR OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. ONE OF THESE STORMS WAS NEAR KINGS
CANYON ALONG HIGHWAY 6...WHILE THE OTHER WAS EAST OF GARRISON ALONG
HIGHWAY 21. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED
WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
   HIGHWAY 6 NEAR KINGS CANYON
   HIGHWAY 21 EAST OF GARRISON

THESE STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF HAIL.
HAIL MAY ACCUMULATE ON AREA ROADS RESULTING IN DANGEROUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS.

LAT...LON 3937 11317 3867 11337 3864 11404 3914 11405
TIME...MOT...LOC 1702Z 250DEG 18KT 3904 11369 3874 11400

MPS

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
119 PM MDT SAT SEP 1 2012

UTZ005-012000-
GREAT SALT LAKE DESERT AND MOUNTAINS UT-
119 PM MDT SAT SEP 1 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN TOOELE COUNTY UNTIL
200 PM MDT...

AT 118 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WENDOVER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
   WENDOVER
   I-80 FROM THE NEVADA BORDER TO MILE POST 15
   BONNEVILLE SALT FLATS

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 4095 11384 4069 11373 4061 11404 4084 11405
TIME...MOT...LOC 1919Z 225DEG 24KT 4078 11401

MPS

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
205 PM MDT SAT SEP 1 2012

UTZ013-012045-
SAN RAFAEL SWELL UT-
205 PM MDT SAT SEP 1 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL EMERY COUNTY UNTIL 245 PM
MDT...

AT 202 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 26 MILES SOUTH OF CLAWSON...OR 32 MILES NORTHWEST
OF HANKSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  I-70 ACROSS CENTRAL EMERY COUNTY
  THE SAN RAFAEL SWELL

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF HAIL
ALONG I-70..RESULTING IN DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3913 11083 3887 11049 3864 11103 3876 11120
TIME...MOT...LOC 2004Z 234DEG 25KT 3876 11104

MPS