Severe Thunderstorm Warning 52, NWS San Angelo, TX

765 
WWUS54 KSJT 042122
SVSSJT

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
422 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2012

TXC447-042215-
/O.CON.KSJT.SV.W.0052.000000T0000Z-120504T2215Z/
THROCKMORTON TX-
422 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN THROCKMORTON COUNTY...

AT 417 PM CDT... A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR US-380 NEAR
THE THROCKMORTON-YOUNG COUNTY LINE...OR 9 MILES EAST OF
THROCKMORTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

  STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
  PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL
  DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

  WITH POSSIBLE STORM IMPACTS...
  VEHICLE DINGS...
  MINOR DAMAGE TO ROOFS...
  DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS...
  LIGHT OBJECTS BLOWN AROUND...
  AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  US-380 NEAR THE THROCKMORTON-YOUNG COUNTY LINE BY 430 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
FRIDAY EVENING FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 3299 9912 3312 9915 3330 9895 3321 9895
      3321 9894 3296 9895 3295 9896
TIME...MOT...LOC 2122Z 245DEG 19KT 3317 9899

$$

JOHNSON

230 
WWUS54 KSJT 042130
SVSSJT

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
430 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2012

TXC447-042140-
/O.CAN.KSJT.SV.W.0052.000000T0000Z-120504T2215Z/
THROCKMORTON TX-
430 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN THROCKMORTON
COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED OUT OF THROCKMORTON COUNTY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
FRIDAY EVENING FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3299 9912 3312 9915 3330 9895 3321 9895
      3321 9894 3296 9895 3295 9896
TIME...MOT...LOC 2130Z 245DEG 19KT 3319 9894

$$

JOHNSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
354 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2012

.SHORT TERM..
LATEST RUC SHOWING INITIATION OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER SHORT WAVE JUST WEST OF CROCKETT COUNTRY CONCOMITANT WITH
THE POSITION OF THE DRYLINE...WHERE LATEST RADAR LOOP IS ALSO
SHOWING SOME DEVELOPMENT. RUC ALSO SHOWING A DAMPENING OF THIS
FEATURE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MORE PROMISING FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING IS A DEEPENING UPPER SHORTWAVE IN THE
VICINITY  OF A TIGHTENING DRYLINE OVER THE EASTERN BIG COUNTRY SOUTH
INTO THE HEARTLAND... WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WOULD
RESIDE. DRYLINE WILL RETREAT THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS WITH
RAINFALL ENDING OVER THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LOOKING FOR A WARMER DAY TOMORROW WITH 100 PLUS TEMPS OVER THE BIG
COUNTRY AND THE WESTERN CONCHO VALLEY. UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TOMORROW WILL BE UNDERCUT BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER
THE SOUTHERN CWA BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...PER THE LATEST NAM...OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DRYLINE
WILL RETREAT WESTWARD SATURDAY EVENING WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ONE LAST DAY OF TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S
ON SUNDAY...AS COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE WAY FOR NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. CONSIDERABLE
MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE COLD
FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE NAM IS THE FASTEST MODEL AND
BRINGS THE FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WHILE THE GFS IS ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER. DECIDED TO SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO BUT LEAN A BIT MORE IN FAVOR WITH THE
NAM AND BRING THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. KEPT SLIGHT POPS GOING SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON MONDAY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH MID
WEEK BEFORE WASHING OUT. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST/BAHA REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN TRACKING EAST TOWARDS WEST TEXAS BY MID
WEEK. GFS REMAINS VERY WET WITH THIS SCENARIO BUT CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO BE LOW CONCERNING PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEXT WEEK.
THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SLIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...PENDING HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 	 97  72 100  71  93 /  20  20  10  20  10
SAN ANGELO 	100  70 100  70  94 /  20  20  10  20  10
JUNCTION 	 95  71  97  70  93 /  10  20  10  20  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

15/24

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
254 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2012

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-052000-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
254 PM CDT FRI MAY 4 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL
BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION...ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS SATURDAY. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION...ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY
EVENING

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