Severe Thunderstorm Warning 50, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
640 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2012

.DISCUSSION...

LOOK FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO RETURN TO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT.
PLEASE SEE THE BELOW AVIATION FOR DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...

MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING STRATUS BACK TO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
OVERNIGHT. TIMING OF MVFR CEILING RETURN WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY. MODELS DO INDICATE STRATUS MAY NOT ADVANCE AS FAR AS
THE BIG COUNTRY. THUS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ABILENE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO BE A REPEAT OF THE LAST 24
HOURS. A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
THUS...LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY BE A CONCERN FOR THE SOUTHERN
TERMINALS.

HUBER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2012/

SHORT TERM...
DRYLINE HAS MADE STEADY PROGRESS INTO OUR EXTREME WESTERN COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE DRYLINE TO MAKE A BIT MORE PROGRESS EAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...TO JUST WEST OF OZONA...TO MERTZON TO NEAR
SWEETWATER...BEFORE BEGINNING TO SLOWLY RETREAT WEST. AFTER TAKING A
LOOK AT THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS...SBCAPE VALUES OF 3000-4500 ARE
IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE OVER PARTS OF THE BIG COUNTRY...CONCHO
VALLEY AND NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU...WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
AROUND 30 KNOTS. IN ADDITION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIRLY
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN STATE OF CHIHUAHUA ABOUT
TO MOVE INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
ALTHOUGH THE BEST LIFT WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST
WEST OF OUR AREA...ENOUGH LIFT FROM THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY AID IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE DRYLINE THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE NOT VERY OPTIMISTIC IN BREAKING
OUT PRECIPITATION ALONG THE DRYLINE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS AND A FAIRLY WEAK
CAP...BELIEVE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE. KEPT THE BEST
CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...CLOSER TO THE DRYLINE AND TRACK
OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...TAPERING OFF TO THE EAST. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS BEING THE MAIN HAZARDS. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
DISSIPATE BY 06Z.

ON FRIDAY...ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY HOT DAY IS FORECAST WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. THE DRYLINE IS ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BY LATE AFTERNOON. A
FAIRLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY...WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE. AT
THIS TIME...THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION LOOKS TO DEVELOP AROUND
23Z AND BEYOND...SO HAVE LEFT PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE.

LONG TERM...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. WE WILL SEE POSSIBLE DRYLINE STORMS FRIDAY EVENING WITH
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS SATURDAY EVENING AS A STRONGER
SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
RANGE FRIDAY EVENING AND INCREASED POPS TO 30 PERCENT SATURDAY
EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP EITHER DAY WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
THE MAIN THREAT.

LOOKS LIKE A BREAK IN CONVECTION FOR SUNDAY BUT THEN THE FOCUS
WILL BE ON THE COLD FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
STALL ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE 1-10 CORRIDOR THROUGH MID WEEK.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW
APPROACHING FROM THE BAHA REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THE THURSDAY TIME
FRAME. THE COMBINATION OF THE FRONTAL POSITION AND SUPPORT FROM
THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING POSSIBLE RAINFALL TO THE AREA AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. QUITE A BIT
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THIS SCENARIO SO KEPT POPS LOW THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 	 71  95  72  97  68 /  20  20  20  20  20
SAN ANGELO 	 69  97  70  97  69 /  30  20  20  20  30
JUNCTION 	 68  93  71  95  70 /  20  10  20  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HUBER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
245 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2012

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-041945-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
245 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A STERLING CITY...TO
SWEETWATER...TO COLEMAN LINE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE THE MAIN HAZARDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY ALSO BE NEEDED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

DANIELS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
833 PM CDT THU MAY 03 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 PM     HAIL             6 NE RULE               33.23N  99.81W
05/03/2012  E1.75 INCH       HASKELL            TX   PUBLIC

            PENNY TO GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL ALONG FARM TO MARKET 2407
            NORTH OF COUNTY ROAD 129

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1200108

JOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
902 PM CDT THU MAY 03 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     HAIL             2 SSW WEINERT           33.29N  99.68W
05/03/2012  E1.75 INCH       HASKELL            TX   PUBLIC

            GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL ALONG HIGHWAY 277 NEAR THE
            INTERSECTION WITH STATE LOOP 203

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1200109

JOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
908 PM CDT THU MAY 03 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0906 PM     HAIL             WEINERT                 33.32N  99.67W
05/03/2012  E0.88 INCH       HASKELL            TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1200110

JOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
914 PM CDT THU MAY 03 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0914 PM     HAIL             1 S WEINERT             33.31N  99.67W
05/03/2012  E1.00 INCH       HASKELL            TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL 1 MILE SOUTH OF WEINERT ON
            US 277

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1200111

JOHNSON