Severe Thunderstorm Warning 102, NWS San Angelo, TX

406 
WWUS54 KSJT 302210
SVSSJT

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
510 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

TXC253-353-441-302230-
/O.CON.KSJT.SV.W.0102.000000T0000Z-120530T2230Z/
JONES TX-NOLAN TX-TAYLOR TX-
510 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN TAYLOR...NORTHEASTERN NOLAN AND SOUTHWESTERN JONES
COUNTIES...

AT 507 PM CDT... A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTH OF
MERKEL...OR 15 MILES WEST OF ABILENE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

  STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
  HALF DOLLAR SIZE
  DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.

  WITH POSSIBLE STORM IMPACTS...
  VEHICLE DINGS...
  MINOR DAMAGE TO ROOFS...
  SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS...
  SOME TREES MAY BE BLOWN DOWN...
  SHEDS TOPPLED...
  ROOF DAMAGE TO MANUFACTURED HOMES...
  EXTENSIVE POWER OUTAGES...
  AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  DYESS AFB...TYE AND STITH BY 520 PM CDT...
  HODGES BY 530 PM CDT...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 20 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 250 AND 277.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT THURSDAY MORNING
FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 3220 9977 3221 10026 3252 10026 3252 10015
      3257 10014 3268 9979
TIME...MOT...LOC 2210Z 240DEG 29KT 3239 9996

$$
DANIELS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
347 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

.SHORT TERM...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG A SHARP
DRYLINE THAT EXTENDS FROM CLARENDON SOUTH TO STERLING CITY.
CONVERGENCE WAS ALSO INCREASING BETWEEN THE DRYLINE AND THE GRAVITY
WAVES/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  CAPE VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO 4000J/KG
ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY.  THIS HIGH CAPE EXTENDS SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN CONCHO VALLEY.  SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR WAS AROUND 50KTS AS A
JET STREAK APPROACHES WC TX.  THESE INGREDIENTS COULD SET THE STAGE
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
ANY RIGHT MOVING SUPERCELLS COULD BECOME TORNADIC AS THEY ENCOUNTER
THE LOW LEVEL BACKED FLOW AND THE N/S ORIENTED GRAVITY WAVES.

THE PRIMARY CONVECTION WAS FORMING NEAR CHILDRESS WHICH SHOULD
EVENTUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST AS AN MCS TOWARDS THE BIG COUNTRY.  OTHER
NEW CONVECTION COULD FORM ANYTIME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN
THE BIG COUNTRY AND NORTHERN CONCHO VALLEY.

THE CAP WAS STRONGEST ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST.  TOWERING CUMULUS
ARE DEVELOPING BETWEEN THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND THE DRYLINE WHERE
THE CAPE VALUES ARE THE HIGHEST.  SOME OF THE CU EVEN EXTENDS SOUTH
INTO TOM GREEN COUNTY AND TO BRADY.  HAVE ADDED 20 POPS IN THAT AREA
AND HAVE RAISED THE POPS TO 40 ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY.

MAIN THREATS TONIGHT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH AN
ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE.

FOR THURSDAY...
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE BIG COUNTRY DURING THE
MORNING AND WILL LIKELY TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF
OF THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON.  MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE FRONT SOME
AND THIS COULD ALLOW TIME FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE SOUTH OF
THE FRONT.  THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY FOR SURFACE BASED CAPES
AT 3000 J/KG.  THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL.

26

.LONG TERM...
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 THURSDAY
NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...AND HAVE 30-40 POPS ACROSS THAT AREA. SOME CLOUD COVER
WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY ACROSS OUR AREA...HELPING TO CONFINE HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO THE MID/UPPER 80S.

UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERNN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES SATURDAY WILL
SHIFT EAST AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH
LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT AND ABSENCE OF A SURFACE FOCUS IN OUR AREA...
GOING WITH A DRY FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM. WITH THE 850 MB
THERMAL RIDGE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BUILD EAST INTO OUR AREA...
EXPECT A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY SUNDAY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE INDICATED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NOCTURNAL DEVELOPMENT OF LOW-
LEVEL JET WILL AID IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT...RESULTING IN
LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT NORTH INTO AT LEAST OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 	 69  85  61  87  69 /  40  10  10  10  10
SAN ANGELO 	 70  90  64  89  69 /  20  20  20  10  10
JUNCTION 	 71  91  68  89  69 /  10  40  40  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1207 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-311715-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
1207 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE BIG COUNTRY MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
BROWNWOOD TO BALLINGER TO SWEETWATER. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING WEST OF A HASKELL...TO SAN ANGELO...TO OZONA
LINE. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH AT 20 FEET WILL COMBINE WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 10 TO 20 PERCENT AND VERY HOT
TEMPERATURES. ANY OUTDOOR BURNING...OR ACTIVITY THAT COULD RESULT
IN ACCIDENTAL FLAMES OF ANY KIND SHOULD BE DONE WITH CAUTION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THROCKMORTON...TO SAN
ANGELO LINE. THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS
LOW. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WITH THE GUSTY WINDS
AND HAIL ACCOMPANYING THE STRONGER STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
442 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

TXZ054-113-127-302230-
JONES TX-NOLAN TX-TAYLOR TX-
442 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 530 PM CDT FOR
JONES...NOLAN AND TAYLOR COUNTIES...

AT 438 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS INDICATED BY NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR OVER NOLAN...OR ABOUT 15 MILES
NORTHEAST OF BLACKWELL...MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. SOME ROADS
IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE INTERSTATE HIGHWAY 20 BETWEEN
SWEETWATER AND ABILENE AND RANCH ROAD 126.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MERKEL BY 505 PM CDT
  LAKE ABILENE BY 510 PM CDT
  VIEW BY 515 PM CDT
  DYESS AFB...TYE AND BUFFALO GAP BY 520 PM CDT

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE
INDOORS IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE THE PROPER
ACTIONS SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED.

LAT...LON 3217 9981 3216 10028 3246 10037 3252 10020
      3252 10015 3255 10014 3267 9982
TIME...MOT...LOC 2141Z 249DEG 27KT 3229 10019

DANIELS