Severe Thunderstorm Warning 236, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
237 PM CDT SUN AUG 5 2012

.DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE RED RIVER VALLEY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS. FRONT TO MAKE LITTLE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS AFTER SUNSET AND
IS FORECAST TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
MONDAY BEFORE DRIFTING SOUTH TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. MOISTURE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT SHOULD BE ABUNDANT ENOUGH TO
MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...UPPER-TROUGH TO ALLOW
SUFFICIENT MIXING TO KEEP AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES SHY OF 100
DEGREES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

FRONT FORECAST TO DRIFT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO ELIMINATE THE CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...UPPER TROUGH
FORECAST TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD NEXT WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
OTHERWISE...BECAUSE OF A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE VICINITY
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LIGHT WINDS FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. /05/

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE
CONVECTION NEAR MLU AND OVER NE LA HAS DIMINISHED EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE SRN SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA NEAR A
WEAK SHEAR AXIS. HOWEVER...AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF ELEVATED CIGS
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON OVER NCNTRL LA/SE
AR...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY THIN LATE. ELSEWHERE...A SCT CU FIELD
HAS FORMED IN RESPONSE TO STRONG HEATING...WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION HAVING RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME SE
OK/CNTRL AR...NEAR A WEAK SFC FRONTAL BNDRY EXTENDING FROM JUST S
OF THE RED RIVER IN EXTREME N TX...INTO SE OK/WCNTRL AND CNTRL AR.
THIS CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...SLOWLY SHIFTING S INTO SW AR BY LATE AFTERNOON. THERE
IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR S INTO EXTREME NE TX/SW AR
THIS CONVECTION WILL BUILD...BUT BELIEVE THAT THE TXK/ELD
TERMINALS WILL NOT BE AFFECTED UNTIL AFTER 00Z...IF AT ALL.
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED BASED ON THE CONVECTION COVERAGE/MOVEMENT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS...BEFORE
THEY DIMINISH BY MID/LATE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.
EXTENSIVE ELEVATED CIGS SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THIS CONVECTION...SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED ELEVATED -SHRA
REDEVELOPING AFTER 09Z MONDAY OVER SW AR/EXTREME NRN LA/E
TX...WHICH MAY LOWER CIGS TO AROUND 8-10KFT BY SUNRISE
MONDAY...BUT THIS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDDAY AS IT SHIFTS SSE INTO
NCNTRL LA. ONCE STRONGER HEATING IS ABLE TO COMMENCE BY LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY...A SCT CU FIELD SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA AS THE AC/CIRRUS SHIELD BEGINS TO THIN. ISOLATED
CONVECTION AGAIN CAN/T BE RULED OUT MONDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE
STATIONARY FRONTAL BNDRY TO OUR N...AS WELL AS FARTHER S. VRB
WINDS 6KTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME GENERALLY LIGHT/VRB
OR LIGHT SE AFTER 00Z. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  96  76  96  76 /  30  30  40  20  10
MLU  74  95  74  96  74 /  30  40  40  30  10
DEQ  74  97  73  99  72 /  30  20  20  10  10
TXK  76  97  75  97  75 /  30  20  20  20  10
ELD  74  95  73  95  73 /  30  30  40  20  10
TYR  76  99  77  99  77 /  30  20  40  20  10
GGG  76  98  76  97  75 /  30  20  40  20  10
LFK  74  96  74  97  74 /  20  30  40  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

05/15

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1146 AM CDT SUN AUG 5 2012

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-061700-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION AR-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-
UNION LA-DE SOTO-RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE LA-
NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-MCCURTAIN-BOWIE-
FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-
HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX-
1146 AM CDT SUN AUG 5 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...EAST TEXAS AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA.
ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...GUSTY WINDS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK AS A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...AMATEUR RADIO
OPERATORS...AND STORM SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT.