Special Weather Statement, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
641 AM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

RATHER COMPLEX AND LOW CONFIDENCE SHORT TERM FORECAST THIS
MORNING...AS FOCUS REMAINS ON CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.

LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWESTERN
MISSOURI CONTINUES TO SAG EAST SOUTHEAST WITH TIME THIS MORNING...AS
NEW CELLS OCCASIONALLY INITIATE ON THE NOSE OF A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET.
THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS LARGELY CAPPED TO ANYTHING CLOSE TO A
SURFACE PARCEL...AND THUS EXPECT THIS CLUSTER TO REMAIN VERY
ELEVATED EARLY THIS MORNING. CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGEST THAT THIS
CLUSTER WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST...WITH ITS MOTION PERHAPS BECOMING
MORE SOUTHERLY WITH TIME. WITH SUCH A STRONG CAP IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION...I SUSPECT THAT THIS INITIAL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BY/SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...AS WHAT WEAK LIFT THE
LOW LEVEL JET IS CREATING DISSIPATES.

THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT REMAINS QUITE FAR TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
CWA...AND WILL ONLY SLOWLY SAG SOUTH BY MID MORNING...PERHAPS MAKING
IT AS FAR SOUTH AS U.S. 54 BY THE 15-17Z TIME FRAME.  AS SURFACE
HEATING COMMENCES AND ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUILDS NORTH
DURING THE MORNING HOURS...CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT SURFACE
CINH WILL ERODE BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...WITH THE FRONT AND ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION SERVING AS THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS OF STORMS.

THE FRONT...PERHAPS REINFORCED BY OUTFLOW...SHOULD MAKE ADDITIONAL
PROGRESS SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...GRADUALLY MOVING THE
MOST FAVORED AXIS OF CONVECTION TO ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE U.S. 60
CORRIDOR BY MID AFTERNOON...AND TO FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI/NORTHERN
ARKANSAS BY EARLY EVENING.  THE AIRMASS OVER THIS REGION IS EXPECTED
TO BE QUITE UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON...WITH RATHER IMPRESSIVE CAPE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE HAIL GROWTH LAYER.  SHEAR CONTINUES TO BE THE
MARGINAL INGREDIENT...THOUGH THE LATEST ITERATIONS OF MODEL GUIDANCE DO
SUGGEST SOMEWHAT HIGHER VALUES THAN WHAT WAS EXPECTED A COUPLE OF
DAYS AGO...AS MUCH AS 30-40 KT AT TIMES (0-6KM LAYER).  THIS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELL ORGANIZATION THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON...AND
MAYBE EVEN A TRANSIENT MID LEVEL MESOCYCLONE OR TWO WITH THE
STRONGEST CELLS.  LARGE HAIL...PERHAPS TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS IN
A FEW INSTANCES...WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY SEVERE WEATHER
HAZARD...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY ROTATING UPDRAFTS.  LOW LEVEL THETA-E
DIFFERENTIALS WILL BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
WIND GUSTS AS WELL.

THE EFFECTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ANY ASSOCIATED SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS
EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE CWA BY LATE THIS
EVENING...THOUGH A SCATTERED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY FLIRT WITH
THE MISSOURI/ARKANSAS STATE LINE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.  COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD
BE A RATHER NICE DAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

PLEASANT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL...THOUGH
DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON A SLOW RISE LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.  ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS VERY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...PERHAPS TOUCHING SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN
MISSOURI DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.  MOST OF THE CWA LOOKS TO STAY
DRY HOWEVER.

A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO THEN BUILD NORTHEAST
INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY...AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS LIKELY TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING FOR
RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...THOUGH RELATIVELY COOL
MID LEVEL TEMPS (7-8C AT 700 MB) PROGGED BY GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE
OF SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER AT LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BOXELL

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 640 AM CDT MON JUN 11 2012/

FOR THE 12Z TAFS (JLN/SGF/BBG)...PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE
CONTINUES TO BE TIMING OF COLD FRONT AND SHRA/TSRA. CURRENT BAND
OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH
WITH TIME AND LOSE A BIT OF ITS PUNCH...WHILE INDIVIDUAL CELLS
DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS MOVE TO THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY
MERGE WITH THE LINE. TSRA SHOULD INCREASE IN INTENSITY FROM LATE
MORNING TO THE AFTERNOON...POSING A RISK OF STRONG WIND GUST AND
HAIL. HAVE TENTATIVELY TIMED THIS ACTIVITY FOR LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON FOR JLN/SGF...THOUGH THIS MAY NEED TO BE
FURTHER REFINED BASED ON THE BEHAVIOR OF ONGOING ACTIVITY. TIMING
IS A FEW HOURS LATER FOR BBG. CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING...WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE AT LIGHT FOG TOWARD
DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

GAGAN

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
542 AM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-121045-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
542 AM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  ELEVATED HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  THUNDERSTORMS INITIALLY CAN BE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI
  EARLY THIS MORNING...AS A COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVES SOUTH FROM
  NORTHERN MISSOURI. WHILE NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS
  EXPECTED WITH THESE INITIAL THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW WIND GUSTS TO
  50 MPH AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
  MID MORNING.

  FROM MID TO LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ADDITIONAL
  THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES
  INTO THE AREA. THE MOST FAVORED AREA FOR THUNDERSTORM
  DEVELOPMENT DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF
  INTERSTATE 44. THE AIRMASS OVER THIS REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE
  MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY MIDDAY...RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
  STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
  MPH...AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A
  FEW OF THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL AS LARGE AS GOLF
  BALLS.

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY PUSH SOUTH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA BY
  LATE EVENING...THOUGH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE
  ALONG THE ARKANSAS STATE LINE THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY OVER
  EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI. THERE
  WILL BE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON AN AFTERNOON
  BASIS DURING THE END OF THE WORKWEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
  CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
 INTERSTATE 44.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

BOXELL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
645 AM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

KSZ097-111215-
CRAWFORD KS-
645 AM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN CRAWFORD COUNTY UNTIL
715 AM CDT...

AT 641 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF BRAZILTON...OR 10 MILES
NORTHEAST OF ST. PAUL...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
WINDS AROUND 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE ARCADIA...ARMA...BRAZILTON...CROWEBURG...
ENGLEVALE...FARLINGTON...FRANKLIN...FRONTENAC...GIRARD...GREENBUSH...
HEPLER...MULBERRY...POLK...RINGO AND YALE.

LAT...LON 3768 9506 3768 9491 3767 9462 3742 9461
      3751 9508
TIME...MOT...LOC 1145Z 280DEG 32KT 3758 9496

GAGAN