Special Weather Statement, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
946 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
/ISSUED 935 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012/

CONVECTION CONTINUED TO EXPAND FROM EAST CENTRAL INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG A SLOWLY ADVANCING COLD FRONT. CONVECTION
ALSO CONTINUED ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70
CORRIDOR BUT THIS ACTIVITY WAS SHOWING A WEAKENING TREND.

EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS KANSAS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
CONGEAL INTO A LINEAR COMPLEX OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE AIDED BY A DEVELOPING 25-30 KT LOW LEVEL JET
AND THE APPROACH OF A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THESE STORMS ARE
CURRENTLY WITHIN AN AXIS OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY BUT
THE AIR MASS TO THE EAST ACROSS THE OZARKS HAS STABILIZED
CONSIDERABLY. WITH THE WEAK SHEAR PROFILES THE RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE LOCALIZED AND CONFINED TO AREAS MAINLY WEST OF A
JOPLIN TO OSAGE BEACH LINE.

EXPECT THE STORMS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED AS THEY SPREAD
INTO THE MISSOURI OZARKS OVERNIGHT BUT THE RISK OF AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

OF MORE CONCERN THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. THE DEVELOPING LOW
LEVEL JET ALONG WITH INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVERNIGHT
INTERACTING WITH THE SAGGING FRONT WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO CONTINUED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE RELATIVELY SLOW MOVEMENT AND
POTENTIAL TRAINING OF THE STORMS... AND A MOISTURE RICH AIR MASS
WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO FAR SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI.

FOSTER

&&

.DISCUSSION...

FOR TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWER TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA...BUT WILL BE THE SECONDARY FOCUS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST OUT OF OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON INTO WESTERN
MISSOURI THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT TO PRODUCE
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. SHEAR VALUES LOOK TO BE ON THE WEAK SIDE
HOWEVER WITH THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND LARGE THETA-E DIFFERENCES
WILL SEE A THREAT FOR DOWNBURSTS ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. SEVERE
RISKS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TOWARDS THE LATE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE INSTABILITY DIMINISHES.

THERE WILL ALSO BE A RISK OF TRAINING STORMS TONIGHT ALONG THE
FRONT AND COULD SEE SOME FLASH FLOODING DEVELOP IF THIS
OCCURS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO WEST CENTRAL
MISSOURI WHICH HAD THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WITH THE PAST SYSTEM.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT WILL
SLOWLY TRACKS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. THERE WILL REMAIN A RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS WHERE THE INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO SWING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING A COOLER AND DRIER
AIR MASS TO THE AREA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ESTABLISH OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

LINDENBERG

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 630 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012/

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND IMPACT AREA
TERMINALS LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES.

MVFR CEILINGS WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION.

FOSTER

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1026 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-080330-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1026 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED HAIL RISK.
  LIMITED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  ELEVATED FLOODING RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD
  INTO THE OUTLOOK AREA DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
  HOURS. THESE STORMS WILL INITIALLY IMPACT EXTREME SOUTHEAST
  KANSAS AND CENTRAL MISSOURI...OR AREAS NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
  JOPLIN TO OSAGE BEACH BY 1 AM...THEN SPREAD INTO THE MISSOURI
  OZARKS OVERNIGHT.

  A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
  QUARTERS AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

  IN ADDITION...THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
  RATES WITH AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES POSSIBLE. THIS
  EXCESSIVE RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY
  NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM ANDERSON...TO BOLIVAR...TO ELDON WHERE A
  FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
  EAST OF U.S. 65. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE
  POSSIBLE AGAIN ON MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT DUE
  TO THE LOCALIZED NATURE OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

FOSTER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
643 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

MOZ056-070015-
MORGAN MO-
643 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN MORGAN COUNTY UNTIL 715
PM CDT...

AT 639 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES SOUTH OF STOVER...OR 15 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF VERSAILLES...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE STOVER AND VERSAILLES.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY INCLUDE LAKE OF
THE OZARKS.

THUNDERSTORMS POSE A VARIETY OF HAZARDS TO THOSE OUTDOORS...INCLUDING
HAIL... STRONG WINDS THAT CAN CREATE DANGEROUS FLYING PROJECTILES AND
DEBRIS...AS WELL AS DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. IF YOU ARE IN
THE PATH OF THIS STORM...MOVE INDOORS TO A STURDY SHELTER
IMMEDIATELY.

LAT...LON 3846 9274 3823 9293 3823 9295 3819 9299
      3820 9302 3821 9299 3823 9301 3827 9304
      3827 9308 3854 9307
TIME...MOT...LOC 2343Z 203DEG 19KT 3832 9304

HATCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1101 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

MOZ066-067-078-070430-
CEDAR MO-ST. CLAIR MO-VERNON MO-
1101 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN VERNON...NORTHWESTERN
CEDAR AND WEST CENTRAL ST. CLAIR COUNTIES UNTIL 1130 PM CDT...

AT 1100 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WALKER...OR 9 MILES WEST OF EL DORADO
SPRINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS
AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE EL DORADO SPRINGS...NEVADA...SCHELL CITY
AND WALKER.

THUNDERSTORMS POSE A VARIETY OF HAZARDS TO THOSE OUTDOORS...INCLUDING
HAIL... STRONG WINDS THAT CAN CREATE DANGEROUS FLYING PROJECTILES AND
DEBRIS...AS WELL AS DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. IF YOU ARE IN
THE PATH OF THIS STORM...MOVE INDOORS TO A STURDY SHELTER
IMMEDIATELY.

LAT...LON 3806 9412 3804 9411 3804 9407 3811 9406
      3814 9402 3789 9381 3773 9429 3786 9437
TIME...MOT...LOC 0402Z 244DEG 22KT 3788 9417

HATCH