Severe Thunderstorm Warning 91, NWS Springfield, MO

306 
WWUS53 KSGF 010545
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1245 AM CDT TUE MAY 1 2012

KSC021-010555-
/O.EXP.KSGF.SV.W.0091.000000T0000Z-120501T0545Z/
CHEROKEE KS-
1245 AM CDT TUE MAY 1 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CHEROKEE COUNTY HAS EXPIRED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.

HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS CHEROKEE 
COUNTY...AND WILL ONLY WORSEN WITH TIME. NUMEROUS ROADWAYS ARE 
EXPECTED TO BE DANGEROUS AND IMPASSABLE TO MOTORISTS THROUGH THE 
OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

LAT...LON 3734 9499 3734 9477 3733 9466 3708 9485
      3701 9492 3699 9495 3699 9504 3701 9508
TIME...MOT...LOC 0545Z 204DEG 53KT 3740 9478

$$

CRAMER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1007 PM CDT MON APR 30 2012

...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...

THE CYCLIC SUPERCELLS IN NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA HAVE SHOWN A
GREATER TENDENCY TO BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINANT...WITH INCREASED REAR
FLANK DOWNDRAFT STRENGTH...IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO. THESE STORMS
CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD INFLOW INTO MID LEVEL MESOCYCLONES...THUS
THEIR CYCLIC NATURE MAY CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. THE LEFT
MOVING SUPERCELL NEAR PARSONS HAS BEEN THE MOST PROLIFIC HAIL
PRODUCER...BUT HAS WEAKENED SOME OVER THE LAST 30 MINUTES.
MEANWHILE...THE LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES A BIG DROP
OFF IN INSTABILITY AS YOU GET INTO MISSOURI...ALONG WITH A BIG
INCREASE IN CAP STRENGTH. WE WILL MAINTAIN A LIMITED TORNADO
RISK...WITH AN ELEVATED WIND AND HAIL RISK FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
TO COVER THE INCOMING ACTIVITY. THIS INCLUDES MAINTAINING THE
TORNADO WATCH. HOWEVER...THE WINDOW APPEARS TO BE CLOSING ON
TORNADO POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN
MISSOURI.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THE ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA WILL DEVELOP
INTO AN MCS. THE INSTABILITY/LOW LEVEL THETA-E PROFILES INDICATE
FORWARD PROPAGATING POTENTIAL ACROSS OKLAHOMA...IF WE GET COLD
POOL CONGLOMERATION. IT APPEARS THAT THE TORNADIC SUPERCELLS
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA COULD BE THE SOURCE OF THIS. FORWARD
PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS WOULD TAKE THIS ACTIVITY TO THE EAST
OR EAST-SOUTHEAST. THUS...THERE IS POTENTIAL THIS COULD CLIP FAR
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI WITH AN ELEVATED WIND THREAT. HOWEVER...THINK
THE BIGGER THREAT MAY REMAIN IN OKLAHOMA. MEANWHILE...THE ACTIVITY
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE MISSOURI OZARKS
OVERNIGHT AS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THINK THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE PRIMARILY ELEVATED...WITH AT
LEAST A LIMITED HAIL THREAT. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR A WIND
THREAT WITH ANY LINE SEGMENTS. THE GREATEST THREAT OVERNIGHT WILL
AGAIN BE HYDRO. CORFIDI VECTORS LATER TONIGHT AGAIN SHOW VERY
LITTLE FORWARD MAGNITUDE...WITH WESTERN MISSOURI ON THE DOWN SHEAR
SIDE OF THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH
COVERS THIS WELL.

SCHAUMANN

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FOCUS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE CENTERED ON CONVECTION
POTENTIAL THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY.

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT THE RAINFALL
TO THE AREA LAST NIGHT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH ALL ASSOCIATED RAINFALL. SKIES ARE SCATTERED
OUT FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE MISSOURI OZARKS.
A MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION ESPECIALLY ACROSS OKLAHOMA
AND TEXAS WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S AS OF THE
MID AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS INCREASING WITH THE HEATING OF THE
DAY AND WITH THE MOIST AIRMASS. MUCAPE VALUES OF OVER 1000 J/KG
ARE BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH MUCH HIGHER VALUES ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
NUDGING INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PUSHING EAST INTO THE PLAINS
AND IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A DRY LINE FROM
WESTERN TEXAS THROUGH OKLAHOMA INTO KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL THEN TRACK TO THE EAST AND
SHOULD DEVELOP INTO A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS EVENING.
INSTABILITY WILL BE GREAT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FORWARD PROPAGATING
COMPLEX OF STORMS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA/KANSAS LATER THIS
EVENING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THESE STORMS RACING OFF TO THE EAST
SOUTHEAST. IF THIS COMPLEX CAN DEVELOP FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTH IT
MAY BE ABLE TO CLIP OR MOVE INTO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND
FAR WESTERN MISSOURI...WITH A DAMAGING WIND RISK AND MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL RISK POSSIBLE. THE COMPLEX SHOULD THEN DIVE OFF TO
THE SOUTH AS IT MOVES FARTHER INTO THE OZARKS AS INSTABILITY WILL
BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER.

ADDITIONAL SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...AND STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER
AREA OVERNIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED IN NATURE AND A FEW
OF THE STRONGER ONES COULD PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL. AT THIS TIME
DO NOT EXPECT THE TRAINING SETUP THAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT...AS THE
FORCING ALONG THE FRONT IS MUCH WEAKER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH THE
AMOUNT OF RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT...THOSE AREAS WILL BE
MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO ADDITIONAL FLOODING IF STORMS TRACK OVER THEM.

STORMS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING BUT SHOULD QUICKLY PUSH
EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH WHERE THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY SETS UP AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS. IF ENOUGH
INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP THERE COULD BE A MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
RISK TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE AREA WILL THEN BE UNDER RIDGE WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. A
FEW DISTURBANCES MAY TRY TO DIVE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI LATE
THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND...BUT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH AT THIS TIME. HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS
IN THE 50S AND 60S ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

WISE

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 01/00Z KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ERUPTED OVER
KS/OK AND THIS WILL BE A PRIMARY CONCERN FOR AREA AERODROMES. A
SURGING LINE OF TSRA WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE MOVED UP ARRIVAL TIME OF THIS ACTIVITY...HOWEVER
FURTHER REFINING OF TIMING MAY VERY WELL BE NECESSARY. GUSTY
WINDS...IFR VIS/CIG ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. SHRA/TSRA
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN ADDITION...LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELDS MARGINALLY SUPPORT A MENTION OF DIRECTIONAL AND
SPREED SHEAR AFTER 01/06Z. SHRA/TSRA SHOULD EXIT BY LATE TUESDAY
MORNING WITH VFR EXPECTED FROM THEN ONWARD.

GAGAN

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR MOZ055>058-066>070-
     077>081-088>090-093-094-101-102.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
752 PM CDT MON APR 30 2012

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-020100-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
752 PM CDT MON APR 30 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED TORNADO RISK.
  ELEVATED HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  ELEVATED FLOODING RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  A LARGE CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT
  EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS
  LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT.

  LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...FLASH FLOODING...AND FREQUENT
  CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH
  THESE STORMS. HOWEVER...THERE IS A RISK FOR A COUPLE OF
  TORNADOES.

  FLASH FLOODING WILL BE EXTREMELY POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT HAVE
  RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL THE PAST TWO NIGHTS...PARTICULARLY IN
  BOURBON...CRAWFORD...VERNON...AND BARTON COUNTIES.

  THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST OF HIGHWAY
  65...EVENTUALLY EXITING THE ENTIRE OZARKS REGION EARLY TUESDAY
  MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

  SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY
  WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
  POSSIBLE.

  WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME
  SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI ALONG
  AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR ON BOTH TUESDAY AND
  WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT SIX HOURS FOR AREAS
  ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM OSCEOLA...TO TABLE ROCK LAKE.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

CRAMER