Severe Thunderstorm Warning 311, NWS Springfield, MO

458 
WWUS53 KSGF 140206
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
906 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

MOC057-140215-
/O.CAN.KSGF.SV.W.0311.000000T0000Z-121014T0215Z/
DADE MO-
906 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN DADE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE 
WARNED AREA.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT SUNDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3703 9340 3748 9342 3755 9319 3742 9318
      3741 9308 3713 9306
TIME...MOT...LOC 0205Z 240DEG 46KT 3756 9317 3739 9312
          3722 9323

$$

MOC043-077-167-140215-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0311.000000T0000Z-121014T0215Z/
CHRISTIAN MO-GREENE MO-POLK MO-
906 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
POLK...EASTERN GREENE AND NORTH CENTRAL CHRISTIAN COUNTIES UNTIL 915
PM CDT...

AT 903 PM CDT...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF PLEASANT HOPE TO FAIR GROVE
TO CENTRAL SPRINGFIELD...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...MINOR TREE DAMAGE...WITH LIMBS UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER
         BROKEN.

IN ADDITION...50 TO 60 MPH WINDS WAS REPORTED IN REPUBLIC WITH THESE 
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BASSVILLE...BATTLEFIELD...BRIGHTON...EBENEZER...FAIR GROVE...
GALLOWAY...GLIDEWELL...PLEASANT HOPE...SPRINGFIELD...STRAFFORD AND
TURNERS.

INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 71 AND 90 WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH ONE IS NOT
IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE
TO A PLACE OF SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT
OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

INTENSE SQUALL LINES CAN SOMETIMES PRODUCE BRIEF TORNADOES AND
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IT IS BEST TO MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR
OF A BUILDING. THIS STORM MAY CAUSE SERIOUS INJURY AND SIGNIFICANT
PROPERTY DAMAGE.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT SUNDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3703 9340 3748 9342 3755 9319 3742 9318
      3741 9308 3713 9306
TIME...MOT...LOC 0205Z 240DEG 46KT 3756 9317 3739 9312
          3722 9323

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60 MPH

$$

WISE

998 
WWUS53 KSGF 140215
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
915 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

MOC043-077-167-140225-
/O.EXP.KSGF.SV.W.0311.000000T0000Z-121014T0215Z/
CHRISTIAN MO-GREENE MO-POLK MO-
915 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN POLK...EASTERN
GREENE AND NORTH CENTRAL CHRISTIAN COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE
WARNED AREA.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT SUNDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3703 9340 3748 9342 3755 9319 3742 9318
      3741 9308 3713 9306
TIME...MOT...LOC 0206Z 348DEG 50KT 3758 9314 3741 9309
          3724 9320

$$

WISE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
646 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...

WE WILL BE CLOSELY WATCHING THE LINE SEGMENT COMING IN FROM
NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS EVENING. WIND FIELDS IN THE LOW
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SUPPORT POTENTIAL SPIN-UPS WITH LINE
SEGMENTS THAT BOW OUT AND SURGE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. WE HAVE
ALREADY NOTED SEVERAL CIRCULATIONS ON THE KINX RADAR WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. THESE CIRCULATIONS HAVE BEEN A BIT STRONGER OF LATE DUE
TO THE INDIVIDUAL SURGES WITHIN THE LINE.

THIS GENERAL SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY OUT AS WE HEAD INTO
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD DUE TO THE STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR. WE WILL BE
WATCHING FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT BACK TO THE WEST AS UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY BEGINS TO OVERTAKE A COLD FRONT. THERE IS ALSO STILL
A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES LATER TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COOLING MID
LEVELS.

SCHAUMANN

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 335 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

CURRENTLY...BROAD WARM SECTOR HAS OVERSPREAD THE REGION TODAY.
AN AXIS OF WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM
NORTHEAST MISSOURI SOUTHWESTWARD...CLIPPING THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD
OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...AND HEADING INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. MILD/WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES AT THIS HOUR GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE MIDDLE 70S. SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEEN
BREEZY AT TIMES...WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH AT JOPLIN THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY...VERY COMPLEX FORECAST AND SOME QUESTIONS
STILL REMAIN REGARDING THE SCOPE AND SEVERITY OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE AREA. HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE 12Z NAM/ECMWF FOR THE
SPECIFICS AS THE GFS IS MUCH TOO QUICK WITH MOVING THIS SYSTEM
THROUGH THE REGION. IN FACT THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OF INTEREST IS
JUST NOW MOVING INTO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH A DRY
LINE/COLD FRONT STRUCTURE OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND THE PANHANDLES
OF OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THERE IS STILL SOME REAL
ESTATE FOR THIS STORM SYSTEM TO TRAVEL.

LARGE SCALE LIFT ANCHORED BY A COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE
HAS RESULTED IN A RATHER WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST SO FAR TODAY.
WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH HOW THIS ACTIVITY BEHAVES...IF IT
CAN PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING IT MAY HAVE AN AFFECT ON
EXPECTED INSTABILITY VALUES. OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE/COLD FRONT
ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PROGRESSING EAST. WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN A CLOSE EYE ON THE
ACTIVITY ALONG THE DRY LINE/COLD FRONT AS IT WILL LIKELY BE THE
ORIGINS OF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

EXPECTED SHEAR AND DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE REALLY
NO DIFFERENT FROM THE PAST FEW FORECASTS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SUPPORTS ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL INCREASE
THIS EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET RAMPS UP. HOWEVER INSTABILITY
REMAINS THE BIGGEST QUESTION. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR MIXED LAYER
CAPE AROUND/JUST ABOVE 1000 J/KG WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD
OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...WITH VALUES DECREASING WITH TIME AND TO THE
EAST (ROUGHLY 500 - 750 J/KG). WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TENDING TO
OVERTAKE THE SLOW MOVING SURFACE FRONT...SHEAR MAY MAINTAIN A
GOOD ENOUGH ANGLE TO THE SURFACE FRONT TO SUPPORT A MIXED MODE OF
THUNDERSTORM TYPES. AS THUNDERSTORMS OVER KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA
BECOME MORE ORGANIZED...CONGEAL AND DEVELOP A COLD POOL...THERE
WILL BE A TRANSITION TO A LINEAR MODE...HOWEVER WE CANNOT RULE OUT
A FEW EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH IN THE LARGER LINE SEGMENTS. WILL
NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON HOW MESOSCALE TRENDS CHANGE AS WELL AS
HOW THE CONVECTION TO OUR WEST EVOLVES WITH TIME.

THE END RESULT...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED IMPACTS. STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY IMPACT. A FEW TORNADOES REMAIN
POSSIBLE...WITH THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR AREAS NEAR THE MO/KS
STATE LINE. AT THIS TIME...TIMING FOR EXTREME SE KS AND W MO IS 7
PM TO 11 PM...FOR THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR 11 PM TO 4 AM...AND THE
EASTERN OZARKS AFTER 4 AM. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY
OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS (WIND BEING THE MAIN RISK). SHOWERS WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...GRADUAL CLEARING WILL OCCUR FROM
WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM EXITS STAGE
EAST. MAIN CHANGE BEHIND THIS FRONT IS USHER IN A DRIER AIRMASS. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD EARLY IN THE WEEK AND
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT/ABOVE AVERAGE.

GAGAN

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...

12Z SUITE OF MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE EXTENDED...WITH INCREASING SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS NOTED FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. UPPER PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW
DURING THE MIDWEEK TIME FRAME WITH A DISTURBANCE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE HAS BEEN PRETTY GOOD AND WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE POPS
FOR THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. PATTERN THEN TRANSITIONS TO A POSITIVE PNA
STRUCTURE WITH RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND TROUGHING OVER
THE EASTERN STATES. THERE IS DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODEL OUTPUT
REGARDING THE EXACT POSITION OF THIS TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATES A CLOSED LOW LINGERING JUST EAST OF THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY...WHILE THE GFS/GEM/UKMET KEEP MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE
AND HAVE THE TROUGH SLOWLY BUT PROGRESSIVELY SHIFT TO THE EAST. THE
END RESULT IS WE WILL EXPERIENCE A COOLING TREND...JUST HOW LONG
COOLER TEMPS LINGER DEPENDS ON HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS
TO THE EAST. FOR NOW...WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH AND
KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

GAGAN

&&

.AVIATION...

A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. MVFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...BUT BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS...ALONG
WITH STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO PERSIST. BRISK AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT BEFORE A PASSING COLD FRONT
SWITCHES WINDS TO THE WEST DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED ONCE WE GET INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

SCHAUMANN

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
754 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-150100-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
754 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED TORNADO RISK.
  LIMITED HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  LIMITED FLOODING RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST
  ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL
  THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
  EASTERN KANSAS AND WILL PUSH INTO THE MISSOURI OZARKS LATER
  TONIGHT. STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS UP TO 75 MPH...TORRENTIAL
  RAINFALL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISKS
  WITH THESE STORMS. THERE IS A LIMITED RISK FOR A FEW
  TORNADOES ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN MISSOURI AND EXTREME
  SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS WILL ALSO
  BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW STORMS.

  THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING MAY THEN INCREASE FROM LATER
  THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
  THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEXT WEDNESDAY...SEVERE STORMS
  ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT
  ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

SCHAUMANN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
751 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 W BAXTER SPRINGS      37.02N 94.81W
10/13/2012                   CHEROKEE           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROOF BLOWN OFF BARN NEAR HIGHWAY 166 AND HIGHWAY 69

&&

MGRIFFIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
755 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

MOZ088-089-093-094-102-140145-
JASPER MO-BARRY MO-NEWTON MO-DADE MO-LAWRENCE MO-
755 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN JASPER...EASTERN
NEWTON...LAWRENCE...NORTHWESTERN BARRY AND SOUTHERN DADE COUNTIES
UNTIL 845 PM CDT...

AT 754 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM MAPLE GROVE TO
SARCOXIE TO NEWTONIA...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT SUNDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3705 9419 3728 9429 3734 9409 3739 9362
      3728 9362 3728 9361 3693 9361 3681 9432
TIME...MOT...LOC 0055Z 252DEG 40KT 3725 9416 3708 9408
          3689 9419

WISE