Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
852 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012

...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
/ISSUED 845 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012/

A NEARLY SOLID LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION HAD EVOLVED
FROM CENTRAL KANSAS INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AT MID EVENING
WHERE A PACIFIC COLD FRONT HAD CAUGHT UP WITH THE DRY LINE.

EXPECT THESE STORMS TO CONTINUE TO CONGEAL INTO A SQUALL LINE AND
SURGE RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS THE NEXT FEW HOURS THEN
ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS OVERNIGHT. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION THAT
IS IN PLACE WILL ERODE WITH TIME AS THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO
MOISTEN AND DESTABILIZE. THE STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND
PROGGED LOW LEVEL CAPE WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW MESO-VORTICIES
AND BRIEF SPIN UP TORNADOES ALONG THE SQUALL LINE. HOWEVER
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD. WILL
HAVE TO ALSO MONITOR FOR A FEW DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AS WELL...BUT
NOT EXPECTING THIS TO BE THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE.

THESE STORMS WILL REACH EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AROUND OR A
LITTLE AFTER 11 PM...AND ENTER FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE CLOSELY MONITORED BEING
THAT THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING RAPIDLY AND OCCURRING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

FOSTER

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF CONVECTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
MISSOURI OZARKS AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. A WARM FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY LIFTING ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS IS SPARKING AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN
MISSOURI. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI ALONG THE
ADVANCING WARM FRONT.

AS THIS FRONT PUSHES NORTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...A WARM AND MOIST SURFACE AIR MASS WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO THE AREA
AFTER DARK...PROVIDING AMPLE LIFT FOR CONVECTION IN THE
WARM...MOIST AIRMASS. THIS CONVECTION WILL ADVANCE FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A LIKELIHOOD OF MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES
RANGING FROM A FEW HUNDRED JOULES TO UPWARDS OF 1000 JOULES.
MUCAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 750 JOULES TO UPWARDS OF
1500 JOULES. COUPLING THIS POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WITH EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR VALUES OF NEAR 40 KT EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA...ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
CONCERN. THE PRIMARY STORM MODE IS EXPECTED TO BE LINEAR WITH
STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.
HOWEVER...STRONG LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH AVAILABLE WIND
SHEAR WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED MESOVORTICES AND A
FEW RESULTANT TORNADOES. ANY STORMS THAT CAN FORM OUT AHEAD OF THE
MAIN LINE MAY BE SUPERCELLS...AND MAY THEREFORE BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL. IN SHORT...ALL MODES OF SEVERE
WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE...INCLUDING A FEW TORNADOES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE TO THE EAST QUICKLY...WITH SURFACE
RIDING MOVING INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. CLEARING SKIES WILL
ALLOW AMPLE SUNSHINE...PUSHING AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO
THE 60S...WITH 70S EXPECTED BY THURSDAY. COUPLE THESE INCREASED
TEMPERATURES WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS...FIRE
WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM TO THE WEST AND PUSH INTO THE
AREA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM...COOLING AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO
THE 50S FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL OF OF THE
REGION. THERE MAY BE AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION ON
SUNDAY WITH A PASSING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...BUT OTHER THAN THAT
THE HIGH PRESSURE REGIME IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

KARDELL

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR TEH 00Z TAFS...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED MVFR
CEILINGS TO STREAM NORTH ACROSS THE OZARKS REGION EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS IS OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG STORM SYSTEM NOW
OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. AS THIS SYSTEM AND ITS COLD FRONT MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION...LIKELY AROUND AND AFTER 04Z...FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AS THUNDERSTORMS TRAVERS THE AREA.
WHERE STORMS AFFECT AREA TERMINALS...BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CAN BE
EXPECTED THOUGH TIMING...DURATION AND IMPACTS ARE CURRENTLY
UNCERTAIN...OTHERWISE CONTINUED MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FAIRLY
QUICKLY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS AND CLEARING OCCURRING AFTER
09/10Z. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS A CONCERN WITH NEAR 50KTS OF SHEAR
NOTED AT 2KFT.

HATCH

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1150 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-010600-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1150 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED TORNADO RISK.
  ELEVATED HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK.
  LIMITED NON THUNDERSTORM WIND RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE OUTLOOK AREA
  INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THESE
  STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR BY MIDNIGHT. THE
  STORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS DURING THE
  OVERNIGHT HOURS.

  THE PRIMARY RISK WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING
  STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...AND A LIMITED RISK
  FOR BRIEF QUICK SPIN UP TORNADOES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE OF
  STORMS.

  SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GUST TO 30 MPH AT TIMES TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

  GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
  ON WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK.

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS THE NEXT STORM
  SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT THREE HOURS FOR
  ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

GRIFFIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1217 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1126 AM     TSTM WND DMG     5 S STOCKTON            37.63N 93.80W
02/28/2012                   CEDAR              MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            THREE AIRPORT HANGERS DAMAGED, ALSO DAMAGE TO POWERLINES
            REPORTED.

&&

JCOLUCCI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1226 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1224 AM     TSTM WND GST     AURORA                  36.97N 93.72W
02/29/2012  E60 MPH          LAWRENCE           MO   PUBLIC

&&

MGRIFFIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1228 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1225 AM     TORNADO          2 SW LEBANON            37.66N 92.69W
02/29/2012                   LACLEDE            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JCOLUCCI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1230 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 AM     HAIL             LEBANON                 37.68N 92.66W
02/29/2012  E1.75 INCH       LACLEDE            MO   PUBLIC

&&

MGRIFFIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1233 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

MOZ056>058-069-070-081-290700-
CAMDEN MO-LACLEDE MO-MARIES MO-MILLER MO-MORGAN MO-PULASKI MO-
1233 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN CAMDEN...EASTERN
MORGAN...MARIES...MILLER...NORTHWESTERN LACLEDE AND NORTHWESTERN
PULASKI COUNTIES UNTIL 100 AM CST...

AT 1228 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 16 MILES NORTHWEST
OF BARNETT TO 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ELDRIDGE...MOVING EAST AT 65 MPH.
WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE BELLE...CAMDENTON...ELDON...IBERIA...LAKE
OZARK...LAKELAND...OSAGE BEACH...VIENNA...VILLAGE OF FOUR SEASONS AND
VILLAGE OF THE FOUR SEASONS.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY INCLUDE LAKE OF
THE OZARKS STATE PARK AND LAKE OF THE OZARKS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CST WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3844 9262 3843 9241 3834 9240 3833 9226
      3834 9220 3830 9218 3830 9165 3813 9163
      3779 9282 3859 9283
TIME...MOT...LOC 0633Z 263DEG 57KT 3859 9272 3781 9272

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1235 AM CST WED FEB 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1225 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 E REPUBLIC            37.12N 93.46W
02/29/2012  E65 MPH          GREENE             MO   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

JCOLUCCI