Areal Flood Warning 9, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
251 PM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...

THE STALLED OUT UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON. SPOKES OF ENERGY CONTINUE TO PIN WHEEL AROUND THIS
SYSTEM BRINGING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED STORMS. SO FAR
WITH THIS EVENT...THERE HAS BEEN A GENERAL 3 TO 5 INCHES OF
RAINFALL ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 71 WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES ALONG
AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 65. AREAL FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND EXTREME WESTERN MISSOURI.
EXPECTING AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS BETWEEN HIGHWAY 71 AND HIGHWAY 5
THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.

AS FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT IS NOT
COMPLETELY ZERO...THE CHANCES ARE EXTREMELY LOW FOR A SEVERE WIND
GUST OR SPIN UP TORNADO. AGAIN THE LIMITING FACTOR CONTINUES TO BE
THE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP DEEP CONVECTION. ONE BAND OF CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS THIS EVENING WITH
ANOTHER BAND OF CONVECTION NOW DEVELOPING DOWN IN WESTERN ARKANSAS
WILL ROTATE UP ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
LATER THIS EVENING. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON SATURATED GROUNDS
WILL AGGRAVATE AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS. THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OZARKS HAVEN'T SEEN THAT MUCH RAINFALL YET WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE RAIN TO SATURATE THE GROUND IN THESE
AREAS. BUT IF THERE IS ANY TRAINING OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
STORMS...THERE COULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL FLOOD WARNINGS ISSUED
LATER TONIGHT. LOOKING AT MODEL DATA...SUGGESTION ANOTHER JET
STREAK COMING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW UP THROUGH
THE OZARKS TONIGHT ALONG WITH A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET. THIS COULD
LEAD TO ANOTHER ENHANCEMENT OF RAINFALL LATER THIS EVENING FOR
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.

LOOKING INTO TOMORROW...THERE APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT BREAK IN THE
RAIN MID TO LATE MORNING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE
AN ISOLATED THUNDER DEVELOPING BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE LAST OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL WITH
THIS LOW AS THE LOW WILL START MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AND
SHIFTING THE MAIN CONVEYOR BELT OF MOISTURE AND CONVECTION OUT OF
THE AREA.

GRIFFIN

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ON
FRIDAY...KEEPING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY...DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING HOURS.  THE PERSISTENT
CLOUD COVER ON FRIDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL...WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 60S EXPECTED.  TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE WEEKEND AS
A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR.  HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S BY SATURDAY WITH MID 70S EXPECTED BY
SUNDAY.  THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO THE BEGINNING
OF THE WORK WEEK.  THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE RAINFALL ON
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE AREA.
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST AT THIS TIME...SO THERE IS NOT
MUCH CONFIDENCE FOR THE TUESDAY PRECIPITATION FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

KARDELL

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...EXPECTING CEILINGS AND VIS TO DROP TO MVFR BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING FOR ALL TERMINALS AS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TS MOVES ACROSS THE OZARKS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST EXCEPT FOR JLN WITH WINDS OUT
OF THE EASTERLY DIRECTION. BBG MAY DROP DOWN TO IFR CELINGS LATER
TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
INCLUDED TEMPO GROUP FOR DROP IN VIS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO HEAVIER SHOWERS.

GRIFFIN

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MOZ055>057-066>069-
     077>081-088>096-101>105.

KS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
359 PM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-212100-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
359 PM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED TORNADO RISK.
  LIMITED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK.
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.
  LIMITED NON THUNDERSTORM WIND RISK.

DISCUSSION...

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAIN WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF MISSOURI
HIGHWAY 65.

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS OR A BRIEF SHORT LIVED
TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...BUT
LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL MAKE THE PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER
VERY LOW.

NON THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
MISSOURI.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

ADDITIONAL LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY WITH THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL SHIFTING EAST TO THE MISSOURI HIGHWAY 65 AND
HIGHWAY 5 CORRIDORS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEEDED THROUGH
TONIGHT...HOWEVER...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO RELAY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING AND ROAD CLOSURES DUE TO
FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

GRIFFIN

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
446 PM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     FLOOD            4 N JASPER              37.40N 94.31W
03/20/2012                   BARTON             MO   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            MODOT REPORTS HWY 126...ONE HALF MILE FROM U.S. 71 IS
            FLOODED.

0240 PM     FLOOD            2 N STOTESBURY          38.00N 94.57W
03/20/2012                   VERNON             MO   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            MODOT REPORTS HWY V AT RT D IS FLOODED AND CLOSED.

&&

BOXELL