Areal Flood Warning 5, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
700 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.UPDATE...

SEVERAL WAVES OF CONVECTION CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING...WHILE THE LARGER AREA OF RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY MOVES
EAST.  THUS FAR...NEARLY ALL CONVECTION HAS BEEN CONFINED TO AREAS
WEST OF U.S. 65.  THIS AREA SHOULD SEE THE HEAVIER RAINFALL THIS
EVENING...THOUGH MOST OF THE CWA SHOULD EVENTUALLY SEE RAIN BY LATE
TONIGHT.

AS OF 2330Z...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE WANING...AS
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY DECREASES WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING.
THAT BEING SAID...A FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD STILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY SMALL LINE SEGMENTS THAT ARE ABLE TO
BECOME ORGANIZED PERPENDICULAR WITH THE 0-3 KM SHEAR VECTORS...WHICH
ARE ALIGNED TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST.  STRONG WIND GUSTS VIA MIXING
PROCESS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR/HELICITY WILL YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR A SPIN UP TORNADO OR
TWO.  OVERALL...HOWEVER...THE TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE LIMITED
BY LACKLUSTER LOW LEVEL CAPE VALUES.

THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING.  AFTER THE PASSAGE OF
THAT LEADING EDGE...ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO THE HEAVY
RAIN/FLOODING THREAT...AS MULTIPLE WAVES OF CONVECTION RIDE NORTH ON
MERIDIONAL FLOW.  BETTER UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT AS WELL AS MID
LEVEL VORTICITY ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...RESULTING IN AN EXPECTED EXPANSION IN MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL WEST OF U.S. 65.  AREA HYDROGRAPHS HAVE STARTED TO
INDICATE A SLOW RESPONSE ON AREA STREAMS AND CREEKS...SUGGESTING
THAT SOILS ARE STARTING TO BECOME SATURATED.  AS SOIL MOISTURE LEVEL
DOES REACH THE POINT OF SATURATION...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE
QUICKLY CONVERTED TO RUNOFF...RESULTING IN MORE RAPID
STREAM...CREEK...AND RIVER RESPONSES.

BOXELL

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...

VERY WET AND STORMY WEATHER IS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THIS WEEK. ON GOING CONVECTION HAS ALREADY MOVED IN FROM THE
WEST AND CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE OZARKS MAINLY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 65. SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES ARE AMPLE FOR STORMS TO
BECOME SEVERE BUT THE INSTABILITY IS THE LIMITING FACTOR WITH THIS
SETUP. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A LOW POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE
STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
THE PRIMARY THREAT DUE TO THE STRONG WIND FIELD AND SMALL HAIL.
THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED QUICK SPIN UP TORNADO OR TWO OVERNIGHT
WITH ANY STORMS THAT BECOME SUPERCELLULAR IN STRUCTURE. THESE STORMS
WOULD BE LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE VERY MOIST TROPICAL LIKE
ATMOSPHERE. 0-3KM HELICITY VALUES ACTUALLY INCREASE UP TO 500M/S
AND MUCAPE VALUES INCREASE OVERNIGHT UP TO 1000J/KG.

EXPECTING THE BAND OF CONVECTION TO SLOW DOWN AND STALL ALONG AND
WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR TONIGHT. GIVEN THE SOUTH TO NORTH
NATURE OF MOVEMENT WITH INDIVIDUAL STORMS...THIS IS WHERE THE
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OVERNIGHT. MODELS INDICATE THIS CONVECTION BAND
WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE SOMETIME TOMORROW MORNING WITH
ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE SAME AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 65.
ANOTHER HEAVY RAIN EPISODE IS EXPECTED WITH ROUND TWO TUESDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

A SMALL BREAK MAY OCCUR WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY
RAINFALL DEVELOPING AGAIN TO OUR SOUTH MOVING IN FOR WEDNESDAY
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. IT IS
HARD TO PINPOINT THE EXACT TIMING OF THESE HEAVY RAINFALL EPISODES
BUT THE MAIN POINT IS THAT WE ARE FORECASTING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR FROM NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE STILL FORECASTED TO BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF
4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS OF
EXTREME SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.

GRIFFIN

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...

THE STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL HAVE PRODUCED SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL EARLIER IN THE WEEK WILL CUT OFF OVER THE AREA AND SLOWLY
MOVE TO THE EAST OVER THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES ACROSS THE AREA.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S ARE EXPECTED. RIDGING
WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND...WARMING HIGH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 70S BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

KARDELL

&&

.AVIATION...

A LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE KJLN AERODROME THIS EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH THIS ACTIVITY...WITH OCCASIONAL RISES TO MVFR.
MEANWHILE...KSGF WILL BE RIGHT ON EASTERN EDGE OF THE HEAVIER
ACTIVITY. HAVE HANDLED THIS WITH PREVAILING MVFR AND A TEMPO IFR
GROUP LATER THIS EVENING. KBBG WILL SEE SOME SCATTERED
ACTIVITY...BUT THINK VFR WILL PREVAIL. DID INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP
FOR MVFR LATER THIS EVENING AT KBBG. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL THREE TAF SITES TONIGHT. AS WE GET
INTO LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THAT BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REORGANIZE OVER FAR WESTERN MISSOURI. ALTHOUGH
KJLN MAY SEE A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE HEAVIER RAINFALL...IFR IS
EXPECTED TO SET BACK IN BY SUNRISE. THIS BAND OF HEAVIER RAINFALL
WILL THEN SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND IS EXPECTED
TO REACH THE KSGF AND KBBG AERODROMES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

SCHAUMANN

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MOZ055>057-066>069-
     077>081-088>096-101>105.

KS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
807 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-210115-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
807 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK INTO WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED TORNADO RISK.
  LIMITED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  ELEVATED FLOODING RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK.
  LIMITED NON THUNDERSTORM WIND RISK.

DISCUSSION...

 BRISK AND GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS
 EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF A LAKE OF THE OZARKS TO TABLE ROCK
 LAKE LINE.

 A LARGE AREA OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
 TO IMPACT LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF AN OSAGE BEACH TO BOLIVAR
 TO CASSVILLE LINE. HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THESE
 THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL LEAD TO AN ELEVATED FLOODING THREAT.
 LOCALIZED AREAS OF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
 THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
 HIGHWAY 71 CORRIDOR. THIS MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED AREAS OF
 FLASH FLOODING.

 MEANWHILE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
 FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN MISSOURI
 OZARKS.

 ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA
 FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL
 RESULT IN A LIMITED THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED BRIEF AND WEAK
 TORNADO. STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH WILL ALSO BE
 POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM LINE SEGMENTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

 A WIDESPREAD EPISODE OF SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO
 EVOLVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE.
 THREE TO EIGHT INCHES OF RAIN IS FORECASTED OVER THE AREA...
 RESULTING IN FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS...CREEKS...AND MAIN STEM
 RIVERS. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WEST OF
 HIGHWAY 65...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS.

 THERE IS THEN A LIMITED RISK FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
 ON TUESDAY IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN MATERIALIZE.

 BRISK AND GUSTY NON THUNDERSTORM WINDS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED ON
 TUESDAY...WITH WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
 THE OUTLOOK AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT SIX HOURS FROM
  THE TRUMAN AND LAKE OF THE OZARKS REGION...SOUTH AND WEST INTO
  THE ANDERSON AND TABLE ROCK LAKE REGION.

  MEANWHILE...SPOTTER ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE
  OUTLOOK AREA OVERNIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

SCHAUMANN

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
408 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

MOZ067-192200-
ST. CLAIR MO-
408 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ST. CLAIR COUNTY UNTIL 500 PM
CDT...

AT 403 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
ROSCOE TO 11 MILES SOUTH OF ROSCOE TO 18 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
COLLINS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3815 9350 3792 9351 3791 9357 3785 9357
      3783 9360 3783 9381 3789 9382 3790 9396
      3820 9379 3821 9351
TIME...MOT...LOC 2109Z 219DEG 33KT 3792 9386 3786 9380
          3771 9376

WISE