Alert archive / North Carolina / Special Weather Statements in 2012

Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

July 27, 2012Caswell County, North Carolina

NWS Blacksburg, VA issued this special weather statement at Jul 27, 2012, 5:01 PM EDT for Caswell County, North Carolina. It was in force for 59 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 27, 2012, 5:01 PM EDT (21:01 UTC)
Expired: Jul 27, 2012, 6:00 PM EDT
In force: 59 min
Issued by: NWS Blacksburg, VA

County Caswell County, NC

The radar

The Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 99 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:04 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 9.0 hours before the alert went out and 60 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1258 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -81 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1293 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 21 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -92 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 79 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: -0.7

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Blacksburg, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jul 27, 4:31 PM EDT, 30 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 27, 4:31 PM EDT, 30 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
431 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES FOR
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM...

MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WHICH EVOLVED OVER THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON WILL EXIT THE CWA EARLY THIS EVENING...THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ENDING FOR THE RNK CWA BY SUNSET. ANTICIPATE
GRADUALLY OMITTING COUNTIES FROM WW 531 AS THE MCS MOVES EAST
BOUND.

ONCE THE STORMS CLEAR THE AREA...RESIDUAL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS MAY
LINGER THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING AND
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG.

THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY AMPLIFY WITH
TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND. ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...PUSHING THROUGH
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IN
ADDITION TO INCREASING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM COOLING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WITH 500 MB TEMPS AROUND M10...STORMS WILL BE
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR HAIL FORMATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT FRIDAY...

AXIS OF SHORT WAVE TROF EXPECTED TO BE ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE SATURDAY EVENING...AND FORECAST TO DRIFT EAST OF
BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA BY MID TO LATE EVENING. AS A RESULT...
EXPECT ANY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS IN PROXIMITY OF TROF TO
MOVE EAST OF THE EASTERN COUNTIES BY MID EVENING TO BE FOLLOWED BY
GRADUAL CLEARING. LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED DURING THE
EVENING WEST OF THE TROF AXIS ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN COUNTIES.

CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT OR CALM SURFACE-BASED WINDS...AND ARRIVAL OF
SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER AIR WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT MAY SET
THE STAGE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SOME PATCHY FOG BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND LOW LYING/SHELTERED AREAS OF
THE PIEDMONT. HAVE INCLUDED THIS POSSIBILITY IN GRIDS.

WEAK UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY
BETWEEN THE EXITING TROF TO THE EAST AND APPROACH OF ANOTHER
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.  THIS WAVE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH/IMPACT
THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA UNTIL MONDAY...SO SUNDAY SHOULD BE
PRECIPITATION FREE. PROXIMITY/PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE ON MONDAY SHOULD
BRING ANOTHER DAY WHERE MAINLY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

MET AND MAV MOS GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD FAIRLY
CONSISTENT...AND INDICATIVE OF WHAT IS ALREADY DEPICTED IN EXISTING
SET OF GRIDS. THEREFORE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
THERMAL FIELDS IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT FRIDAY...

BLOCKING PATTERN WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AS BERMUDA HIGH ANCHORS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...BROAD UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE NATION...LOCKING
MEAN UPPER TROF IN FROM THE UPPER AND LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST
COAST.

PROXIMITY OF UPPER TROF WITH ASSOCIATED COOLER AIR ALOFT...AND
THREAT OF RIDGE-RUNNING SHORT WAVE TROFS EMBEDDED IN WEST TO
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN DAILY THREAT FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH
SOMEWHAT MODIFIED TEMPERATURES...WITH THREAT OF PRECIPITATION
MAXIMIZED AS EACH WAVE PASSES THROUGH/NEAR THE AREA.

AS WOULD BE EXPECTED...SOME TIMING/PLACEMENT DISCREPANCIES EXIST
BETWEEN SOME OF THE LONGER-RANGE MODELS. HOWEVER...ONE WAVE LIKELY
TO IMPACT THE MID APPALACHIAN AND MID ATLANTIC REGION ON
TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER ON WEDNESDAY...AND POTENTIALLY A THIRD IN THE
THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIMEFRAME.

EXTENT OF DAILY CLOUD COVER AND PROXIMITY TO PRECIPITATION WILL
LARGELY GIVEN OVERALL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOWER
90S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT BY DAY...WITH 60S MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 70
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AT NIGHT SEEM REASONABLE AND NOT ALL THAT FAR
FROM CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.

HPC BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE USED TO POPULATE LONG RANGE GRIDDED
FIELDS...WITH ONLY SUBTLE TWEAKS TO REFLECT TOPOGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN
LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL BIASES AS/WHERE APPROPRIATE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM FRIDAY...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCS WILL
EXIT THE LOCAL REGION BEFORE 00 UTC...8PM THIS EVENING...THE
ACTIVITY MOVING EAST INTO EASTERN VA/NC. DEBRIS CLOUDINESS MAY
LINGER OVER THE AREA UNTIL MIDNIGHT...BUT THE OVERALL TREND WILL
BE FOR CLEARING.  SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING SATURDAY...MAINLY MVFR...FOLLOWED BY QUICK
TRANSITION TO VFR CONDITIONS AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY.

ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS LIKELY SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING INOF COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS
THE LOCAL REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AIR MASS DRIES OUT AND VFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. RETURN MOISTURE AND RESIDUAL FRONT TO THE
SOUTH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BUT MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF AFTERNOON STORMS
AND OVERNIGHT VALLEY FOG.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...WERT
LONG TERM...WERT
AVIATION...PM

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 27, 4:59 PM EDT, 2 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
459 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

VAZ007-009>020-022>024-WVZ042>045-282100-
TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-
FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-MERCER-
SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER-
459 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST
CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ032>035-043>047-058-059-282100-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-
APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
459 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 531 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS...PLEASE PHONE YOUR SEVERE REPORTS TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 27, 3:43 PM EDT, 1 hour 18 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
343 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0241 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 S UNION               37.54N 80.53W
07/27/2012                   MONROE             WV   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TREE DOWN IN ROAD 3 MILES SOUTH OF UNION.

&&

JVC

Special weather statement, Jul 27, 3:47 PM EDT, 1 hour 14 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
347 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

NCZ005-VAZ015>017-032-033-043-044-272045-
CARROLL VA-FLOYD VA-FRANKLIN VA-GRAYSON VA-HENRY VA-PATRICK VA-
PITTSYLVANIA VA-ROCKINGHAM NC-
347 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CARROLL...FLOYD...FRANKLIN...
GRAYSON...HENRY...PATRICK...PITTSYLVANIA AND ROCKINGHAM COUNTIES...

AT 346 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHEAST
OF FANCY GAP...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND PEA-SIZED HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR WILLIS AROUND 355 PM...MEADOWS OF DAN...AND
MABRY MILL AROUND 400 PM...ROCKY KNOB RECREATION AREA...ROCKY KNOB
SUMMIT...AND FLOYD AROUND 405 PM...BUFFALO RIDGE...STUART...AND
WOOLWINE AROUND 410 PM AND CHARITY AROUND 415 PM.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR LATER
UPDATES OR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

LAT...LON 3658 8139 3694 8033 3692 7946 3652 7966

AMS

Local storm report, Jul 27, 4:26 PM EDT, 35 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
426 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0333 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NNE ROANOKE           37.33N 79.95W
07/27/2012                   ROANOKE            VA   911 CALL CENTER

            POWERLINES DOWN ON DAYTONA ROAD

0333 PM     LIGHTNING        5 N ROANOKE             37.35N 79.95W
07/27/2012                   ROANOKE            VA   911 CALL CENTER

            LIGHTNING STRUCK A TELEPHONE POLE ON DEXTER ROAD.

&&

JVC

Local storm report, Jul 27, 4:37 PM EDT, 24 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
437 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 S BLUEFIELD           37.19N 81.27W
07/27/2012                   BLAND              VA   PUBLIC

            NUMEROUS LARGE LIMBS DOWN ON CLEAR FORK CREEK ROAD

&&

MBS

Special weather statement, Jul 27, 4:51 PM EDT, 10 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
451 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

VAZ024-035-272115-
AMHERST VA-ROCKBRIDGE VA-
451 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AMHERST AND ROCKBRIDGE
COUNTIES...

AT 449 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHEAST
OF BUENA VISTA CITY...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND PEA-SIZED HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR FORKS OF BUFFALO AROUND 500 PM...VESUVIUS
AROUND 505 PM AND LOWESVILLE AROUND 515 PM.

LAT...LON 3793 7920 3789 7915 3785 7914 3782 7916
      3779 7909 3777 7906 3772 7906 3770 7900
      3766 7898 3763 7944 3794 7954 3800 7932

Special weather statement, Jul 27, 5:01 PM EDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
501 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

NCZ006-272200-
CASWELL NC-
501 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CASWELL COUNTY...

AT 458 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER JERICHO...
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM. EXPECT FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING FROM THIS STORM. DO
NOT STAY IN THE OPEN OR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING
THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR HIGHTOWERS AROUND 515 PM...HIGHTOWERS AROUND
520 PM AND LEASBURG AROUND 530 PM.

LAT...LON 3624 7943 3628 7944 3633 7936 3641 7914
      3629 7914 3625 7915 3624 7916

WERT

The office that day

Everything else NWS Blacksburg, VA issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 27, 1:35 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Giles	55 min
Jul 27, 2:07 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	RNK	Tazewell	65 min
Jul 27, 2:17 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Bland, Giles	52 min
Jul 27, 3:02 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Montgomery, Pulaski, Roanoke, City of Radford, City of Roanoke, City of Salem	58 min
Jul 27, 3:14 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Patrick	31 min
Jul 27, 3:15 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Alleghany, Botetourt, Craig, City of Covington	30 min
Jul 27, 3:19 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Campbell, Halifax, Pittsylvania, City of Danville	56 min
Jul 27, 3:27 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Bedford, Botetourt, Craig, Franklin, Roanoke, City of Roanoke and 1 more	78 min
Jul 27, 3:47 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Carroll, Floyd, Henry, Patrick, City of Galax, City of Martinsville	58 min
Jul 27, 3:52 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Alleghany, Amherst, Botetourt, Rockbridge, City of Buena Vista, City of Covington and 1 more	53 min
Jul 27, 4:00 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Bedford, Franklin, Roanoke	30 min
Jul 27, 4:06 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Charlotte	45 min
Jul 27, 4:12 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Bedford, Campbell, Franklin, Pittsylvania	63 min
Jul 27, 4:22 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Henry, Patrick	68 min
Jul 27, 4:37 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Amherst, Appomattox, Bedford, Campbell, City of Lynchburg	53 min
Jul 27, 4:51 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Rockbridge, City of Buena Vista, City of Lexington	24 min
Jul 27, 5:10 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Amherst, Appomattox, Buckingham	65 min
Jul 27, 5:20 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Appomattox	25 min
Jul 27, 5:16 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Rockingham, Stokes	42 min
Jul 26, 10:47 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Greenbrier	58 min
Jul 27, 1:05 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Mercer, Summers	55 min
Jul 27, 2:22 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Monroe	56 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in North Carolina, 2012 Every special weather statement in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.