Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
332 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BRINGING COOLER AIR BACK TO THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY. THE COOLER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE FRONT REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT MONDAY...

AXIS OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH TN/WV/NC. BEST
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN CENTERED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF THIS FEATURE. CONVECTION ELSEWHERE HAS BEEN VERY ISOLATED AND LOW
TOPPED GIVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT TODAY AS COMPARED TO SUNDAY.
THROUGH THIS EVENING...WE ARE EXPECTING A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY
ISOLATED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA. HERE...THE INFLUENCE OF
THE SHORTWAVE MAY HELP COVERAGE BE MORE ON THE SCATTERED SIDE.
LITTLE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO LAST PAST SUNSET. ONLY A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN DEW POINT READINGS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS COMPARED TO
CONDITIONS LAST NIGHT. WILL HAVE LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND THREE
DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE BOARD AS COMPARED TO THIS MORNINGS
READINGS.

ON TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA.
MOISTURE WILL WRAP NORTH ON THE WESTERN FLANKS OF THE HIGH AND
MAKE ITS WAY INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. DAYTIME
HEATING...INCREASED MOISTURE...AND CONVERSION ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MIDDAY
TOMORROW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STEERING FLOW WILL AGAIN BE ON THE
WEAK SIDE...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A LOW LEVEL INVERTED V
PATTERN. ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT FORM WILL AGAIN HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. WITH INCREASING 850 MB
TEMPS...WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY. ANTICIPATE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH LOW TO MID 90S EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

LOOKING INTO WEDNESDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD FLATTEN OUT...AND RIDGING BECOMING MORE
ESTABLISHED FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE DELMARVA REGION. THE
ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGING WILL ALLOW WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA TO BE
MAINLY WESTERLY AND DOWNSLOPE...WHICH WILL BOTH IMPACT TEMPERATURES
AND COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCES EXPECTED ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE EARLY
HALF OF THE DAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE DRIVEN
BY DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THESE STORMS WILL BE MAINLY
PULSE VARIETY...WITH A FEW STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THINK THAT THE WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT WILL STILL SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
PIEDMONTS AS WELL. WESTERLY WINDS AND ONLY SCATTERED CLOUD COVER
WILL ALSO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE MID 90S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONTS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHILE HIGHS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
WILL RISE INTO THE MID 80S TO THE LOW 90S.

RIDGING ACROSS THE PLAINS BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED ON THURSDAY...
RESULTING IN INCREASED TROUGHING ACROSS THE EAST AS AN UPPER LOW
MOVES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. WITH INCREASED TROUGHING...COMBINED
WITH THE INSTABILITY OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD FROM THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY...WE CAN EXPECT GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AREAWIDE...
AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE AREA WILL HELP TAKE THE EDGE OFF OF AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BY A
FEW DEGREES...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...AND INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE PIEDMONTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR AREA ON
FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON...AND IS EXPECTED TO EXIT TO THE SOUTH
BY FRIDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN AIR INTO OUR AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE MID 80S ACROSS
THE PIEDMONTS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED AT
BEST...CONFINED MAINLY TO SHORTLIVED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 127 PM EDT MONDAY...

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. ITS BEST ASSOCIATED LIFT IS OUTRUNNING THE
PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY. WHILE THE TWO AREA NOT MATCHING
EXACTLY...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF AN INFLUENCE OF THE TWO FOR SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...ENDING EARLY THIS EVENING. HAVE REFLECTED THIS AT MOST
TAF SITES WITH VCSH IN THE PREVAILING WEATHER GROUP. MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN VFR. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE LOCALIZED AREAS UNDER THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS. HERE EXPECT BRIEF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION SHOULD END FAIRLY QUICKLY AT OR JUST AFTER
SUNSET. AREAS THAT EXPERIENCED RAIN TODAY WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE SOME MVFR LIGHT FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY
14Z...10AM...ON TUESDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO
THE AREA WITH PROGRESSIVELY HOTTER TEMPERATURES AND A STRONG
CAPPING INVERSION ALOFT. CONDITIONS WILL THEN BE MAINLY VFR
TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY EXCEPT BRIEFLY MVFR/IFR UNDER THOSE
ISOLATED AREAS THAT RECEIVE A MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWER OR STORM.
SOME PATCHY VALLEY OR RIVER FOG ALSO LIKELY TO RESULT IN BRIEF
EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THE NORMALLY FOGGY LOCATIONS
SUCH AS KLWB...KBCB AND KLYH INTO MIDWEEK.

BY THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION AND WORKS IN FROM
THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTH FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT STILL
NEARBY.

BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE...WITH LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING MOUNTAIN AND RIVER
VALLEY FOG.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO FOR THE HINTON TRANSMITTER REMAINS OFF THE
AIR DUE TO COMMERCIAL POWER NOT REACHING THE SITE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...DS
EQUIPMENT...

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
334 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

VAZ018-022-023-162000-
BOTETOURT VA-CRAIG VA-ROANOKE VA-
334 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT BOTETOURT...CRAIG AND ROANOKE
COUNTIES...

AT 330 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF NEW CASTLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND PEA-SIZED HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR HOLLINS AROUND 400 PM.

LAT...LON 3743 7985 3727 8002 3745 8019 3755 8002