Severe Thunderstorm Warning 268, NWS Blacksburg, VA

115 
WWUS51 KRNK 162259
SVSRNK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
659 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

VAC029-162315-
/O.CON.KRNK.SV.W.0268.000000T0000Z-120716T2315Z/
BUCKINGHAM VA-
659 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM EDT
FOR CENTRAL BUCKINGHAM COUNTY...

AT 655 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS OF
60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR TOGA...OR JUST WEST OF 
BUCKINGHAM...MOVING SOUTH AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  ANDERSONVILLE...
  SHEPPARDS...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING 
IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS 
ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR 
THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3733 7849 3735 7855 3740 7859 3739 7863
      3742 7864 3743 7868 3745 7870 3747 7873
      3756 7874 3764 7849 3742 7840
TIME...MOT...LOC 2258Z 356DEG 36KT 3749 7859

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
332 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BRINGING COOLER AIR BACK TO THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY. THE COOLER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE FRONT REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT MONDAY...

AXIS OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH TN/WV/NC. BEST
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN CENTERED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF THIS FEATURE. CONVECTION ELSEWHERE HAS BEEN VERY ISOLATED AND LOW
TOPPED GIVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT TODAY AS COMPARED TO SUNDAY.
THROUGH THIS EVENING...WE ARE EXPECTING A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY
ISOLATED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA. HERE...THE INFLUENCE OF
THE SHORTWAVE MAY HELP COVERAGE BE MORE ON THE SCATTERED SIDE.
LITTLE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO LAST PAST SUNSET. ONLY A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN DEW POINT READINGS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS COMPARED TO
CONDITIONS LAST NIGHT. WILL HAVE LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND THREE
DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE BOARD AS COMPARED TO THIS MORNINGS
READINGS.

ON TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA.
MOISTURE WILL WRAP NORTH ON THE WESTERN FLANKS OF THE HIGH AND
MAKE ITS WAY INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. DAYTIME
HEATING...INCREASED MOISTURE...AND CONVERSION ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MIDDAY
TOMORROW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STEERING FLOW WILL AGAIN BE ON THE
WEAK SIDE...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A LOW LEVEL INVERTED V
PATTERN. ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT FORM WILL AGAIN HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. WITH INCREASING 850 MB
TEMPS...WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY. ANTICIPATE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH LOW TO MID 90S EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

LOOKING INTO WEDNESDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD FLATTEN OUT...AND RIDGING BECOMING MORE
ESTABLISHED FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE DELMARVA REGION. THE
ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGING WILL ALLOW WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA TO BE
MAINLY WESTERLY AND DOWNSLOPE...WHICH WILL BOTH IMPACT TEMPERATURES
AND COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCES EXPECTED ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE EARLY
HALF OF THE DAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE DRIVEN
BY DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THESE STORMS WILL BE MAINLY
PULSE VARIETY...WITH A FEW STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THINK THAT THE WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT WILL STILL SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
PIEDMONTS AS WELL. WESTERLY WINDS AND ONLY SCATTERED CLOUD COVER
WILL ALSO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE MID 90S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONTS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHILE HIGHS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
WILL RISE INTO THE MID 80S TO THE LOW 90S.

RIDGING ACROSS THE PLAINS BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED ON THURSDAY...
RESULTING IN INCREASED TROUGHING ACROSS THE EAST AS AN UPPER LOW
MOVES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. WITH INCREASED TROUGHING...COMBINED
WITH THE INSTABILITY OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD FROM THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY...WE CAN EXPECT GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AREAWIDE...
AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE AREA WILL HELP TAKE THE EDGE OFF OF AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BY A
FEW DEGREES...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...AND INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE PIEDMONTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR AREA ON
FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON...AND IS EXPECTED TO EXIT TO THE SOUTH
BY FRIDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN AIR INTO OUR AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE MID 80S ACROSS
THE PIEDMONTS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED AT
BEST...CONFINED MAINLY TO SHORTLIVED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 127 PM EDT MONDAY...

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. ITS BEST ASSOCIATED LIFT IS OUTRUNNING THE
PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY. WHILE THE TWO AREA NOT MATCHING
EXACTLY...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF AN INFLUENCE OF THE TWO FOR SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...ENDING EARLY THIS EVENING. HAVE REFLECTED THIS AT MOST
TAF SITES WITH VCSH IN THE PREVAILING WEATHER GROUP. MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN VFR. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE LOCALIZED AREAS UNDER THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS. HERE EXPECT BRIEF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION SHOULD END FAIRLY QUICKLY AT OR JUST AFTER
SUNSET. AREAS THAT EXPERIENCED RAIN TODAY WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE SOME MVFR LIGHT FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY
14Z...10AM...ON TUESDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO
THE AREA WITH PROGRESSIVELY HOTTER TEMPERATURES AND A STRONG
CAPPING INVERSION ALOFT. CONDITIONS WILL THEN BE MAINLY VFR
TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY EXCEPT BRIEFLY MVFR/IFR UNDER THOSE
ISOLATED AREAS THAT RECEIVE A MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWER OR STORM.
SOME PATCHY VALLEY OR RIVER FOG ALSO LIKELY TO RESULT IN BRIEF
EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THE NORMALLY FOGGY LOCATIONS
SUCH AS KLWB...KBCB AND KLYH INTO MIDWEEK.

BY THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION AND WORKS IN FROM
THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTH FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT STILL
NEARBY.

BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE...WITH LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING MOUNTAIN AND RIVER
VALLEY FOG.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO FOR THE HINTON TRANSMITTER REMAINS OFF THE
AIR DUE TO COMMERCIAL POWER NOT REACHING THE SITE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...DS
EQUIPMENT...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
337 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

NCZ001>004-018>020-VAZ007-009-012-015-016-171945-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-WATAUGA-WILKES-YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-
WYTHE-GRAYSON-CARROLL-
337 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED...SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
THIS EVENING. BRIEF STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS COULD ALSO OCCUR WITH
SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE THURSDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ005-006-VAZ043>047-058-059-171945-
ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-
HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
337 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD BE ENOUGH TO
RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING THIS EVENING. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE THURSDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE AROUND 100 DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VAZ010-011-013-014-017>020-022>024-032>035-WVZ042>045-171945-
BLAND-GILES-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-
BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-MERCER-SUMMERS-
MONROE-GREENBRIER-
337 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED...SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL THIS EVENING WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE LOCALIZED
FLOODING. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE THURSDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
434 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

VAZ033>035-045-162130-
AMHERST VA-BEDFORD VA-CAMPBELL VA-FRANKLIN VA-
434 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AMHERST...BEDFORD...CAMPBELL AND
FRANKLIN COUNTIES...

AT 430 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE FROM 3 MILES
WEST OF BIG ISLAND TO BOONES MILL...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR SEDALIA...AND CHAMBLISSBURG AROUND 440
PM...GOODVIEW...AND BURNT CHIMNEY AROUND 450 PM...BIG ISLAND AROUND
455 PM...NORTHWEST SMITH MOUNTAIN LAKE...ROCKY MOUNT...AND D-DAY
MEMORIAL AROUND 505 PM...BEDFORD CITY AROUND 510 PM AND COLEMAN FALLS
AROUND 515 PM.

BOATERS ON SMITH MOUNTAIN LAKE SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR A WIND GUST OF
30 TO 40 MPH BETWEEN NOW AND 6:00 PM.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR LATER
UPDATES OR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

LAT...LON 3704 7955 3704 7959 3699 7961 3690 7970
      3708 8007 3714 7998 3714 7996 3716 7992
      3721 7989 3723 7984 3725 7985 3760 7940
      3747 7909

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
510 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

NCZ006-162215-
CASWELL NC-
510 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CASWELL COUNTY...

AT 500 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER JERICHO...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. VERY HEAVY RAIN
WILL ALSO FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON
ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

RADAR ESTIMATES THAT 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER EXTREME
SOUTHERN CASWELL COUNTY BETWEEN JERICHO AND BAYNES.

THIS STORM WILL STAY OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF CASWELL COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3625 7944 3639 7934 3625 7920 3624 7920
      3624 7944

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
537 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

VAZ043-044-162215-
HENRY VA-PITTSYLVANIA VA-
537 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT HENRY AND PITTSYLVANIA
COUNTIES...

AT 530 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED BETWEEN
SYDNORSVILLE AND SNOW CREEK...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THE OUTFLOW WIND FROM THIS STORM WILL EFFECT THE NORTHERN PART OF
HENRY COUNTY...INCLUDING PHILPOTT DAM...OAK LEVEL...FIGSBORO...AND
MOUNTAIN VALLEY.  A WIND GUST OF 40 TO 50 MPH IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN
NOW AND 630 PM. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN WESTERN
PITTSYLVANIA COUNTY NEAR CALLANDS.

LAT...LON 3674 8009 3679 8008 3678 8001 3679 8002
      3682 8000 3683 7996 3679 7976 3681 7974
      3684 7963 3697 7961 3697 7949 3673 7950

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
541 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0402 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 N ROANOKE             37.34N 79.97W
07/16/2012                   ROANOKE            VA   911 CALL CENTER

            POWER LINES DOWN ON NOVER AVE.

&&

KM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
552 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0422 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BURNT CHIMNEY           37.10N 79.83W
07/16/2012                   FRANKLIN           VA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN AT THE INTERSECTION OF ROUTES 122 AND 116.

&&

KM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
616 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

VAZ047-162315-
BUCKINGHAM VA-
616 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT BUCKINGHAM COUNTY...

AT 612 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 13 MILES NORTHWEST
OF DILLWYN...MOVING SOUTH AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND PEA-SIZED HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR BUCKINGHAM AROUND 640 PM...DILLWYN AROUND 645
PM...TOGA AROUND 650 PM...ANDERSONVILLE AROUND 655 PM AND SHEPPARDS
AROUND 715 PM.

LAT...LON 3734 7846 3733 7849 3735 7855 3740 7859
      3739 7863 3742 7864 3743 7867 3767 7872
      3770 7869 3769 7865 3771 7866 3776 7861
      3777 7857 3777 7853 3776 7850 3746 7837