Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
613 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING INTO TUESDAY. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE A FOCUS FOR ADDED SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE BY MID OR LATE WEEK
BUT RESIDUAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 609 PM EDT MONDAY...
CLEARED NORTHWEST PORTION OF CWA FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 484.
REST OF WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM. THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR
LOCATED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS EVENING. ADJUSTED POPS AND
TEMPERATURES ACCORDING TO LATEST TRENDS. WILL MAKE MORE
ADJUSTMENTS AS NIGHT PROGRESSES.

AS OF 245 PM EDT MONDAY...

CLUSTERS OF STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ESPCLY ALONG THE NRN BLUE
RIDGE AND SHOULD SPILL SLOWLY SE AS THE MAIN 85H BOUNDARY SAGS IN
FROM THE NE THIS EVENING. LATEST MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATES THE BEST
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SE WHERE THE BEST DCAPES EXIST SO
THINKING THE BEST COVERAGE WILL FILL IN OVER THE EASTERN HALF THRU
EARLY THIS EVENING WHERE WILL BE CARRYING A PERIOD OF CAT POPS.
ELSW TSRA HAS BEEN LIMITED BY DEVELOPMENT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST/NW FLOW ALOFT ATTM. MOST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE ALSO SHIFTS THE
EASTERN TSRA COMPLEX TOWARD THE VA/NC BORDER THIS EVENING WHILE
GRADUALLY BACK BUILDING IT TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS SO HANGING ONTO
LIKELY POPS FOR MOST OF THE WEST EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NW WHERE
SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE EXITING DEEPER RH/THETA-E. GIVEN VERY MOIST
PWATS AND SLOW STEERING HEAVY RAIN MAY BECOME A BIGGER ISSUE SW LATER
THIS EVENING AS THE SVR THREAT FADES SO SOMETHING TO WATCH. OTRW
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH POPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND COULD GO BASICALLY WITHOUT SHRA EXCLUDING THE VA/NC BORDER
REGION LATE. KEPT TEMPS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS WITH MOST SPOTS BEING
ABLE TO PUNCH INTO THE 60S.

BOUNDARY WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY WHILE THE 85H
FRONT LINGERS NEAR THE BORDER WITH A MESH OF HIGHER THETA-E STILL
NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL FRONT THRU MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE TURNING MORE EASTERLY WHICH COULD
PRODUCE A LOT MORE CLOUDS AND LESS INSTABILITY THAN EXPECTED PER
THE LATEST NAM. BETTER LIFT THOUGH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE FRONT
OVER SRN VA/NRN NC WITH SOME UPSLOPE COMPONENT DEVELOPING OVER THE
NW NC MOUNTAINS WITH DRYING FILTERING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. LATEST
GFS LOOKS WAY OVERDONE ON PRECIP BUT GIVEN THE LATEST WETTER
TRENDS OFF THE SREF AND LOCAL MODELS WILL KEEP LOW LIKELYS SRN THIRD
TUESDAY...DECENT CHANCES CENTRAL AND LOW POPS NORTH. OTRW LIKELY
LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG TO INIT...BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY BUT COOLER
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY STAYING IN THE 70S IN THE
WEST AND ONLY LOW/MID 80S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

THROUGH THE WEEKEND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE 850MB/THETA-E BOUNDARY WITH STRONGER STORMS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT. MODELS STALL THE 850 MB
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NOT VERY FAR SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA. BEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN
THE SOUTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO ON WEDNESDAY SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL HAVE AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST COMPONENT SO COVERAGE OF STORMS ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE MAY BE ENHANCED...EVEN WITH LITTLE SYNOPTIC FORCING
AND GOOD INSTABILITY.

EXPECT SCATTERED DEBRIS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND IN THE MORNING WITH
MORE CUMULUS TYPE CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AND DEW POINTS STAYING MOIST...NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH
DROP IN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

UPPER RIDGING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BUILDS WEST JUST ENOUGH TO
RAISE 500 MB HEIGHTS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINA STATES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC UPPER RIDGE AND
THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND THE AXIS OF DEEPER
MOISTURE OVER THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...WILL KEEP A MAJORITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

EXPECT A GRADUALLY WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1255 PM EDT MONDAY...

WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION STARTING TO FIRE ACROSS THE NORTH WITH
MAIN IMPACTS LIKELY TO KLYH AND KLWB DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
SINCE IFFY AS TO WHETHER OR NOT EITHER AIRPORT WILL GET A STORM
NEARBY WILL MAINTAIN A VCTS/TEMPO MENTION THERE AND ADD IN SOME
STRONGER WIND GUSTS PENDING RELEASE COVERAGE. OTRW STILL
EXPECTING STORMS TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP/PROPAGATE TO THE SOUTH THRU
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHILE BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ESPCLY
SOUTHERN AREAS BY LATE IN THE DAY. THEREFORE WILL INTRO A BIT MORE
IN THE WAY OF VSBY RESTRICTIONS WITH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES
OTRW VFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION FOR THE MOST PART THIS AFTERNOON.

STORMS SHOULD BE SLIDING INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS EARLY TONIGHT
AND JUST HOW MUCH THESE ORGANIZE KEY TO HOW MUCH DRYING OCCURS
OVER THE REGION. LATEST NAM HAS A MORE ROBUST BAND OF STORMS
SINKING SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES VIA DENSITY OVERNIGHT WHICH WOULD
LIKELY END MUCH SHRA/TSRA AFTER THIS EVENING. THUS WILL CONTINUE
TO LEAN DRIER ESPCLY AFTER MIDNGIHT...BUT EXPECT SOME LOCATIONS
NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER TO HAVE SHOWERS AND THUNDER CHANCES ALL
NIGHT.

WITH THE FRONT SOUTH OF US TONIGHT...AND SOME DRYING...MAY SEE FOG
ISSUES...ALTHOUGH MODELS DO AGREE ON KEEPING IT RATHER CLOUDY SO
IFR FOG AT WORST IS EXPECTED AT KLWB/KBCB/KBLF.

THIS FRONT WILL BE STALLING SOUTH OF US THIS WEEK. THIS PATTERN
SUGGESTS A WETTER SOLUTION NOW...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF A BLF-ROA-LYH
LINE...BUT WILL SEE IF TRENDS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE FRONT DOWN MORE
OR LIMIT ITS SWD PUSH AS MORE WAVES MAY TEND TO LIFT THE MOISTURE
BACK NORTH BY MIDWEEK. WITH THIS PATTERN...THERE SHOULD BE MORE SHRA/TSRA
COVERAGE...BECOMING MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN BY LATE IN THE WEEK OR
THE START OF THE WEEKEND AS THE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SENSOR IS OUT OF SERVICE AT KBCB/BLACKSBURG.
THE SENSOR AT KDAN/DANVILLE HAS BEEN FIXED.

N0AA ALL HAZARDS RADIO HINTON TRANSMITTER WAS STILL OFF THE AIR
DUE TO COMMERCIAL POWER NOT REACHING THE SITE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/KM/WP
EQUIPMENT...

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
549 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012

NCZ006-092245-
CASWELL NC-
549 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CASWELL COUNTY...

AT 546 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES EAST OF
JERICHO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM. EXPECT FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING FROM THIS STORM. DO
NOT STAY IN THE OPEN OR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING
THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR PROSPECT HILL AROUND 610 PM...HIGHTOWERS
AROUND 615 PM AND LEASBURG AROUND 645 PM.

LAT...LON 3634 7939 3644 7914 3629 7914 3625 7915
      3624 7916 3624 7936

RAB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
607 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012

VAZ033-092300-
FRANKLIN VA-
607 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT FRANKLIN COUNTY...

AT 603 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES WEST OF
FERRUM...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM. EXPECT FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING FROM THIS STORM. DO
NOT STAY IN THE OPEN OR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING
THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR FERRUM AROUND 650 PM AND OAK LEVEL AROUND 700
PM.

LAT...LON 3681 7990 3683 7999 3682 8001 3682 8007
      3685 8007 3687 8023 3690 8020 3695 8018
      3695 8014 3698 8014 3703 7977 3680 7976

RAB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
624 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012

VAZ032-033-092315-
FRANKLIN VA-PATRICK VA-
624 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WESTERN FRANKLIN AND NORTHERN
PATRICK COUNTIES...

AT 620 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CONTINUED TO DEVELOP WESTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN PATRICK AND NORTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES FROM MABRY
MILLS...TO CHARITY...TO ENDICOTT...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS...ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. EXPECT FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING FROM THIS STORM. DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN OR SEEK
SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN A
THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3672 8041 3674 8042 3674 8039 3676 8040
      3680 8038 3680 8036 3683 8034 3694 8008
      3679 8004 3678 8010 3674 8010 3674 8008
      3672 8010 3669 8009

RAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
701 PM EDT MON JUL 09 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     HAIL             5 ESE BUFFALO RIDGE     36.72N 80.19W
07/09/2012  E0.88 INCH       PATRICK            VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KKOSTURA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
717 PM EDT MON JUL 09 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 ESE YANCEYVILLE       36.39N 79.28W
07/09/2012                   CASWELL            NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN OFF ROUTE 86

&&

FISHER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
717 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012

VAZ032-043-100015-
HENRY VA-PATRICK VA-
717 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT HENRY AND PATRICK
COUNTIES...

AT 712 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED ALONG A LINE
FROM 5 MILES EAST OF BASSETT TO ARARAT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. EXPECT FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING FROM THESE STORMS. DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN
OR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS
WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS. UP TO 1.0 INCH OF RAINFALL HAS ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS
NORTHERN PATRICK COUNTY DURING THE PAST HOUR. PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS CAN
BE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS IN AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR COLLINSVILLE...AND STUART AROUND 735 PM...
FIELDALE AROUND 740 PM...VILLA HEIGHTS...AND CRITZ AROUND 750 PM...
LEATHERWOOD AROUND 755 PM...MARTINSVILLE CITY AROUND 800 PM AND
CHATMOSS AROUND 805 PM.

LAT...LON 3655 8049 3664 8054 3665 8049 3670 8046
      3682 8006 3678 8003 3679 8001 3679 8002
      3683 8000 3679 7982 3680 7978 3664 7969
      3657 7971 3654 7985

RAB