Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
940 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
THE HEAT RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
SINKS SOUTH THROUGH VIRGINIA LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS
BOUNDARY MAY SPARK NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING
WINDS TONIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE VIRGINIA NORTH
CAROLINA BORDER AS DISTURBANCES RIDE ALONG IT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 940 PM EDT SUNDAY...
SEVERE THREAT WANING WITH LOSE OF HEATING. WILL ALLOW WATCH 481 TO
EXPIRE AT THE TOP OF THE HOUR. THUNDERSTORMS STILL LIKELY IN THE
NE PIEDMONT OF RNK CWA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. CONVECTION COULD ENTER THE
MOUNTAIN EMPIRE BY MIDNIGHT...THEN SPREAD OVERNIGHT TO AREAS THAT
DID NOT SEE RAIN TODAY.

AS OF 980 PM EDT SUNDAY...CONCEALING WESTERN PORTION OF WATCH 481.
RAIN THREAT WINDING DOWN THIS EVENING...BUT AS THE FRONT MOVES
CLOSER TO THE AREA...EXPECT CHANCES TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT.

AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...RECORDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN BROKEN AND
YET ITS ACTUALLY TOO WARM ALOFT FOR WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT. WITH
HUGE DCAPE AND BIG DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS NEARLY 40F ATTM AT
ROANOKE...WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE...POSSIBLY SIMILAR TO LAST WEEK
ALTHOUGH NOT A DERECHO LITERALLY...IS A POSSIBILITY AGAIN. IF THE
COLD POOL INCREASES LEADING TO MORE ORGANIZATION ESPECIALLY WITH
THE FORMING LINE COMING OUT OF WEST VA...JUST NORTH OF THE CITY OF
CHARLESTON WV. ALSO STRONG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND EASTERN WV PANHANDLE...WHICH COULD TAKE MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY ROUTE THAN THE DEVELOPMENT IN CENTRAL WEST VA THIS
EVENING. THESE STORMS COULD IMPACT THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH AND THE
PART OF THE WATCH WHICH STRETCHES INTO BUCKINGHAM AND APPOMATTOX.
WATCH MAY END OF BEING EXPANDED DEEPER INTO THE NEW RIVER VALLEY.
PER LOCAL OFFICE STUDY HUGE CAPE LIKE WHICH IS IN PLACE NOW MAKES
IT LIKELY THAT THE CHARLESTON LINE SUSTAINS ITSELF OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY INTO THE SOUTHSIDE/VA PIEDMONT LATER. WITH
H85 FRONT STILL FAR NORTH...STORMS WILL LESSEN SOMEWHAT TONIGHT
ALTHOUGH STILL A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. MORE WIDESPREAD
DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY WITH THE FRONT CLOSER...COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT...BETTER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LESS OF A DOWNSLOPING
COMPONENT. SUCH THAT LIKELY POPS ARE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA IN THE
AFTERNOON. SPC STILL LEAVES A SLT RISK OVER SOUTHSIDE...AND ITS
MERITED CONSIDERING LESS CLDS AND STORMS TONIGHT AND STILL
IMPRESSIVE H85 TEMPS NEAR 20C AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SUNNY
BREAKS. ELSEWHERE...LOOKING AT A WATER THREAT WITH SUBTLE MBE
VELOCITIES AND POTENTIAL FOR BACKBUILDING. PWATS AROUND 1.6" WITH
DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S UNLIKE TODAY. DID RAISE TEMPS A FEW
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH LATER ONSET OF STORMS MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...

BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THE SLOPING BOUNDARY FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH
850 MB WILL BE OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA MONDAY NIGHT THEN SHIFTS
GRADUALLY SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WILL INCREASING PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

EXPECT A SIMILAR TREND IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BIGGEST
CHANGE EACH DAY WILL BE THE LOCATION OF THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SUNDAY...

STALLED FRONT OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL PROLONG DAILY THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE
LARGELY DEPENDENT ON AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER EACH MORNING AND THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. BUT...IN
GENERAL...FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN A TYPICAL SUMMER AIR MASS WITH NO
EXTREMELY HOT AIR SO MODELS SHOULD HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON THE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

STATIONARY FRONT FADES BY SATURDAY. THIS LEAVES MAINLY A CHANCE FOR
AIR MASS TYPE DIURNALLY AND TOPOGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. EXPECT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AS FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA RIDGE BRINGS
INCREASING 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 720 PM EDT SUNDAY...

STORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TONIGHT...WITH LWB GETTING
A BROKEN LINE FROM THE NW IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ROA/BCB/LYH
ALSO HAVE A GOOD CHANCE AT STORMS LATER THIS PM AND INTO THIS
EVENING. BECAUSE THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG...POSSIBLY TEMPO IFR
CONDS MAY OCCUR. STORMS FURTHER SOUTH NEAR DAN SHOULD BE WIDELY
SCATTERED TO ISOLATE. POSSIBLE THAT SCATTERED STORMS MAY BE
ONGOING FOR THE ENTIRE NIGHT. WITH A WET GROUND...EVEN ENOUGH
CLEARING OCCURS IFR VIS/CIG IS A POSSIBILITY AT LWB AND POSSIBLY
ALSO LYH/BCB.

MORE NUMEROUS STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE BY MID MORNING ON MONDAY
AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS. ONCE AGAIN THEY COULD BE SEVERE AS THE
COLD FRONT IS DRAPED OVERHEAD. TEMPO IFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN.

A FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTH BY LATE SUNDAY STALLING SOUTH
OF US BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN SUGGESTS A WETTER SOLUTION
NOW...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF A BLF-ROA-LYH LINE...BUT WILL SEE IF
TRENDS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE FRONT DOWN MORE OR LIMIT ITS SWD PUSH.
WITH THIS PATTERN...THERE SHOULD BE MORE SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL KEEP US HOT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

       JULY 8TH
       RECORD HIGH
ROA 101/1977 ***NEW RECORD 102F***
LYH 99/1977  ***NEW RECORD 101F***
DAN 102/2010 ***NEW RECORD 103F ***
BCB 96/1988
BLF 93/1988  ***TIED RECORD***

IN ADDITION SOME RECORD WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURES MAY BE SET.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SENSOR IS OUT OF SERVICE AT KBCB/BLACKSBURG.
THE SENSOR AT KDAN/DANVILLE HAS BEEN FIXED.

N0AA ALL HAZARDS RADIO HINTON TRANSMITTER WAS STILL OFF THE AIR
DUE TO COMMERCIAL POWER NOT REACHING THE SITE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KM/WP
NEAR TERM...KM/RCS
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...KM/WP
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...

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