Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
407 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A HOT UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE OOZING EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
AND THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WILL KEEP RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

WILL BE CANCELING WEST VA COUNTIES FROM THE WATCH...AND COUNTIES
JUST TO THE SOUTH IN SW VA CAN BE CLEARED SOON. CONSIDERING THE
AIRMASS IS UNTOUCHED ALONG THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE WATCH...WILL
LET IT GO FOR NOW. THICKER CLOUDS HAVE STAYED JUST WEST OF ROANOKE
AND SOME ISOLATED CELLS ARE DEVELOPING NEARBY ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERLY MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ATTM. ONCE LINE GETS THROUGH
NW NC THE SEVERE THREAT WILL HAVE ENDED AND IS PRETTY MUCH FINISHED
ACROSS EXTREME SW VA. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN RIGHT NOW...AND THIS DEVELOPING CLUSTER MAY JOG A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST...IN A SSE DIRECTION INTO LATE THIS EVENING. AIRMASS
HAS BEEN STABILIZED ACROSS MUCH OF WEST VA SO THIS CLUSTER MAY HIT A
WALL IF IT TRIES TO CROSS. ANY CLUSTERS THOUGH WHICH TAKE MORE OF AN
EASTERLY ROUTE THROUGH WESTERN PA AND THEN INTO NORTHERN VA AND THE
WEST VA PANHANDLE MAY POSE A THREAT TO THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH AND
CLOSER TO THE SPINE OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN VIRGINIA LATE TONIGHT.
STILL HAS A LONG WAY TO GO THOUGH.

WHATEVER COMES OUT OF PENNSYLVANIA LATE TONIGHT AGAIN MAY SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR STORMS ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH STEERING WINDS FIELDS ARE
WEAKER AND MORE DISPARATE THAN TODAY. THUS PLACED HIGHEST POPS ALONG
NW NC AND EXTREME SW VA FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW
CONSIDERING POOR PERFORMANCE OF THE LOCAL MODELS WITH REGARDS TO
TODAY'S EVENT. TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR FRIDAY PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER WITH H85 TEMPS NEAR 24C. ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE
NECESSARY ACROSS THE EXTREME SE. THE SOUTHSIDE AND NC PIEDMONT
SHOULD CROSS 100F AGAIN WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR 105F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM THURSDAY...

HEAT RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING IN AGAIN FROM THE WEST FRI-SAT...WITH A
BACK DOOR FRONT DROPPING SWD SUNDAY. OUR AREA FRI-SAT WILL BE MAINLY
DEALING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING UNTIL THE FRONT ENTERS FROM THE NORTH ENHANCING
CHANCES SUNDAY. MCS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO STAY NORTH PER RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING WEST TO EAST INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS MID ATLANTIC. A
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SHORTWAVE INDUCED MCS ARRIVES TOWARD
SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL ITS TOO EARLY TO SAY WHERE THIS WILL SET UP.

SO FOR POPS...KEPT IT LOW FRI-SAT PER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT INHIBITING
SOME DEVELOPMENT...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE STORMS FIRE UP
TOWARD THE EVENING WHEN THE CAP BREAKS. STILL LOOKING AT MUCH OF THE
AREA STAYING HOT AND DRY.

WITH THE FRONT SHIFTING SWD INTO LATE WEEKEND THE FLOW WILL BECOMING
MORE WEST AND THE HEAT IMPACT WILL STAY UP. THE DEWPOINTS MAY DROP
EAST OF THE MTNS...BUT LEE TROUGH IN THE PIEDMONT COULD KEEP HIGHER
DEWPOINTS PULLED PER SW FLOW. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAT ADVISORY
FRI-SAT IN THE PIEDMONT PER HIGHS AROUND THE CENTURY MARK.

HEADING INTO SUNDAY...THE FORECAST WILL DEPEND ON FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND SHORTWAVES SUPPORTING ENHANCED CONVECTION. WILL KEEP CHANCES
AFTER MIDDAY WITH 30/40 POPS...PENDING BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT. WITH
SOME ORGANIZATION POSSIBLE...TEMPS MAY BE IMPACTED FROM CLOUDINESS
FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION...SO WENT A LITTLE COOLER THAN FRI-SAT BUT
WILL STILL BE HOTTER THAN NORMAL WITH UPPER 80S WEST TO  UPPER 90S
EAST...AS OPPOSED TO WIDESPREAD 90S TO AROUND 100 FRI-SAT...OUTSIDE
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR A LIST OF
RECORD HIGHS FOR JULY 6TH AND 7TH.

SUNDAY NIGHT...NOT CHANGING POPS AS THE NEW 00Z ECMWF AND GFS
SHOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWING WITH POSSIBLE MCS PUSHING IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...

MODELS/ENSEMBLES REMAIN AGREEABLE WITH THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN BUT
DISPLAY SOME DETAIL DIFFS THAT TYPICALLY HAVE LOW PREDICTABILITY.
EXPECT A MEAN RIDGE ALOFT TO PRESIDE OVER THE ROCKIES AND VICINITY
WHILE  ALASKA MAY REACH WRN CANADA AND UPSTREAM FLOW STREAMS INTO
THE OVERALL TROF.  MEANWHILE TROFFING WILL SETTLE OVER THE NERN
QUADRANT OF THE NATION DAYS 3-5 SUN-TUE... WITH DIFFS IN TROF
AMPLITUDE IMPACTING THE EXACT LATITUDE OF THE LEADING SFC FRONT.
GUIDANCE IS NOW INDICATING THAT THE STRONG RIDGE OVER THE ATLC MAY
TRY TO BUILD WWD BY WED-THU... SERVING TO WEAKEN THE NERN TROF ALOFT
AND STALL THE SFC FRONT.  THE ERN PART OF THE FRONT MAY EVEN BEGIN
TO LIFT NWD AS A WARM FRONT LATE NEXT WEEK.

UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES WEST AND TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN
CONUS THIS PERIOD. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT THAT COOL DOWN WILL TAKE
PLACE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...SHAVING ABOUT 10 DEG C OFF THE 85H
TEMP AND TRIMMING SFC TEMPS TO A MORE TOLERABLE LEVEL.

SFC FRONT IS PROGGED TO SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY.
THE BIG QUESTION...AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE AT THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR...IS HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT WILL DRIFT BEFORE STALLING.
LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FRONT PUSHING INTO
GA/SC EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DIFFERING SOLUTIONS ON WHETHER THE
DEEPER MOISTURE CLEARS THE CWA.

FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE
EXTENDED WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE MONDAY VCNTY OF THE FRONT. IF
FRONT MOVES FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA...MAY BE ABLE TO
TRIM POPS COMPLETELY FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 142 PM EDT THURSDAY...

IMPRESSIVE BOW ECHO ON TOP OF BLF...WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS TO 60KTS
OVER THE NEXT 20 MINUTES. ISOLATED STORMS MAY ALSO FROM AHEAD OF
THE MAIN LINE TO BCB/ROA ALTHOUGH THE MAIN LINE MAY JUST MISS TO
THE SW. LWB ALSO APPEARS TO HAVE ESCAPED THE STRONGEST PUNCH OF
WINDS ATTM. FURTHER EAST LYH/DAN MAY DEAL WITH ISOLATED STORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FIGURES TO BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH POTENTIALLY MORE STORMS THIS EVENING AS
ANOTHER CLUSTER IS MOVING SOUTH OFF OF LAKE ERIE. THIS CLUSTER MAY
MOVE A LITTLE FURTHER EAST TONIGHT THAN CURRENT LINE. WET GROUND
AT LWB/BLF MAKES IFR VIS/CIG MORE LIKELY THAN USUAL. MORE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY...AND WILL BE WATCHING FOR ANY
CLUSTERS MOVING SOUTH OUT OF PENNSYLVANIA POSSIBLY AFFECTING
CENTRAL AND WESTERN VA.

THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET AS HEATING ENDS.
THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE PATCHES OF FOG DEVELOPING DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS OF THE
MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS AREAS WHICH RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
DURING THE PREVIOUS TWENTY FOUR HOUR PERIOD. A STRONGER MORE
IMPACTFUL SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA BY LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD AGAIN GOING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
REACHING TOWARD RECORD HIGHS.

     JULY 5TH             JULY 6TH        JULY 7TH
     RECORD HIGH         RECORD HIGH     RECORD HIGH
ROA   100/1999              100/1999        101/1930
LYH    98/1999               98/2010         98/2010
DAN   101/1966              102/1990        104/2010
BCB    93/1966               94/2010         94/2010
BLF    90/1993               92/2010         92/2010

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SENSORS OTS AT KBCB/BLACKSBURG AND
KDAN/DANVILLE. HINTON TRANSMITTER STILL OFF THE AIR DUE TO
COMMERCIAL POWER NOT REACHING THE SITE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ044>047-058-
     059.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ006.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KM/WP
NEAR TERM...KM
SHORT TERM...JC/PM
LONG TERM...JC/PM
AVIATION...KM/NF
CLIMATE...WP
EQUIPMENT...PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
402 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

NCZ005-VAZ019-020-023-024-033>035-043-062015-
ROCKINGHAM-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-
AMHERST-HENRY-
402 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND WEST
CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE
STRONG.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD...
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

NCZ006-VAZ044>047-058-059-062015-
CASWELL-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-
CHARLOTTE-
402 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

WIDELY SCATTERED PULSE VARIETY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL BECOME STRONG
TO SEVERE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. IN
ADDITION...DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS WELL.

ALSO...DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF HIGH HUMIDITY AND AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 100 DEGREES...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
REACH AT LEAST 105 DEGREES...INCREASING THE RISK OF HEAT RELATED
ILLNESSES SUCH AS HEAT EXHAUSTION AND HEAT STROKE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD...
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. HEAT INDICES MAY ONCE AGAIN
CROSS 105F THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

NCZ001>004-018>020-VAZ009>018-022-032-062015-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-WATAUGA-WILKES-YADKIN-SMYTH-BLAND-
GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ROANOKE-
PATRICK-
402 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 469 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST
CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SEVERE AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS...DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD...
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

VAZ007-WVZ042>045-062015-
TAZEWELL-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER-
402 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD...
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
441 PM EDT THU JUL 05 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0405 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 E MADISON             36.39N 79.89W
07/05/2012                   ROCKINGHAM         NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN ON PLANTERS ROAD

&&

FISHER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
445 PM EDT THU JUL 05 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 WSW MOUNTAIN PARK     36.35N 80.93W
07/05/2012                   WILKES             NC   911 CALL CENTER

            LARGE LIMB DOWN ON SOUTH CENTER CHURCH ROAD

&&

SK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
451 PM EDT THU JUL 05 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0421 PM     HAIL             6 SE GRETNA             36.90N 79.29W
07/05/2012  E1.00 INCH       PITTSYLVANIA       VA   PUBLIC

            CHALK LEVEL ROAD

&&

FISHER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
509 PM EDT THU JUL 05 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 N ENNICE              36.61N 81.01W
07/05/2012                   GRAYSON            VA   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREES DOWN ON HIGHWAY 636

&&

AMS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
517 PM EDT THU JUL 05 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     HAIL             5 NNE TRAPHILL          36.41N 80.99W
07/05/2012  E0.88 INCH       ALLEGHANY          NC   PUBLIC

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL AT THE HIGH MEADOWS INN MOTEL

&&

SK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
536 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

VAZ044-052230-
PITTSYLVANIA VA-
536 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PITTSYLVANIA COUNTY...

AT 534 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER DANVILLE
CITY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

THIS STORM WILL STAY OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF CITY OF DANVILLE
COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3662 7950 3663 7936 3654 7934 3654 7950
      3655 7950

RCS