Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
415 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC BY THE END OF THE WEEK. BEFORE
THAT OCCURS...SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL COMBINE WITH
HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 332 PM EDT TUESDAY...

STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...PERHAPS INCREASING IN
COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE AND PIEDMONT. WITH AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE AND NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
INTERACTING...IN A WEAK MEAN FLOW. WITH STRONG DCAPE
VALUES...WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THESE
STORMS HAVE GROWN FAR ENOUGH ABOVE THE -20C LEVEL TO PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL. CONSIDERING SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS...AND THE 2 TO 3 INCHES
OF RAIN FELL IN NW WILKES...ANY ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD PRODUCE
FLOODING IN THAT AREA. LIKE TODAY...MODELS AGAIN PINPOINTING THE
NW NC MOUNTAINS FOR INITIAL DEVELOPMENT AS SHORTWAVES RIDE EAST
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES. STILL A LITTLE
CONCERNED ABOUT POTENTIAL MCS DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT...BUT
CORFIDI VECTORS ARE RATHER WEAK AND VARIABLE SUCH THAT STORMS
WOULD STAY AWAY. SIMILAR TEMPS TOMORROW WITH BOTH ROA/DAN/LYH ALL
INTO THE MID 90S. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE PINPOINTING AN MCS LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING WEDNESDAY...WITH MORE FAVORABLE WINDS
WHICH WOULD DIRECT STORMS INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM TUESDAY...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGES VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. STRONG UPPER RIDGE REAMPLIFIES ACROSS THE MIDWEST...AND
MAINTAINS A SIGNIFICANT HOLD ON THE WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND SOUTHEAST CONUS. WESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS
SHOULD ENSURE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES BORDERING FLAT OUT HOT WEATHER
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AFTERNOON TEMPS PRESSING WELL INTO THE 90S
BOTH DAYS AND POTENTIALLY TESTING THE CENTURY MARK FOR ELEVATIONS
BLO 1500 FEET MSL.

TEMPERATURES ALOFT FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALSO INDICATE
SIGNIFICANT WARMING...500 MB TEMPS CLIMBING FROM CURRENT M8 TO M10
DEG C TO M5 DEG C.  THE NET EFFECT WILL BE A LOWERING OF THE CAPE
AND A DECREASED THREAT FOR MCS TYPE CONVECTION. STILL CAN'T RULE OUT
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AIRMASS STORMS VCNTY OF THE MOUNTAINS AND
POTENTIAL FOR PULSE TYPE SVR...BUT THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION SHOULD FAVOR THE HIGHER LATITUDES NORTH OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THERE IS HOPE IN THE LONG TERM PERIODS FOR A GRADUAL COOLING TREND
AS THE HUDSON BAY POLAR VORTEX AMPLIFIES IN RESPONSE TO A
RETROGRADING AND BUILDING WESTERN U.S. RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW A
WEST-EAST ORIENTED FRONT TO SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION EITHER
THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BIG QUESTION...AS IS ALWAYS THE
CASE AT THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...IS HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT WILL
DRIFT BEFORE STALLING. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE FRONT MAKING INTO AT LEAST TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF OUR CWA BY
SUNDAY...AND AN EVENTUAL PUSH INTO GA/SC EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
DIFFERING SOLUTIONS ON WHETHER THE DEEPER MOISTURE CLEARS THE CWA.

FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE
EXTENDED WITH HIGH COVERAGE SUNDAY AND MONDAY VCNTY OF THE FRONT.

TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...TEMPS DROPPING
CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT TUESDAY...

STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN SOUTHERN VA
AND NW NC THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. EVENTUALLY CELLS MAY MERGE INTO
A BROKEN LINE AND SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE PIEDMONT AND SOUTHSIDE
VA. THIS WOULD MAKE CONVECTION MOST PROBABLE AT KDAN AND ALSO KLYH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE
WITH WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ATTM. SMALLER CHANCES FOR
STORMS AT ALL OTHER TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH TEMPORARY IFR CONDS UNDER
THE STRONGEST STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ALTHOUGH CONDS THIS BAD
WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. CHANCES FOR A MORE
ORGANIZED GROUP OF STORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY HAS DECREASED...AS CORFIDI VECTORS DON'T TARGET THE REGION.
ANY TERMINALS THAT DO GET PRECIP TONIGHT WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE FOG TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY KLWB AS USUAL. WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF MORE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...STORMS MAY DEVELOP
IN THE SAME REGIONS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF AN MCS
PROPAGATING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A SIMILAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AND GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET AS HEATING ENDS. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL
BE PATCHES OF FOG DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND
ACROSS AREAS WHICH RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DURING THE
PREVIOUS TWENTY FOUR HOUR PERIOD.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KM/NF
NEAR TERM...KM
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...KM/NF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
412 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>045-042015-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-
CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-
PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-
APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
GREENBRIER-
412 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS...ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
BECAUSE STORMS ARE SLOW MOVING...LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY OCCUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A STRONGER
MORE ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WINDS MAY
AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA AND EXTREME WESTERN VIRGINIA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
512 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

VAZ059-032130-
CHARLOTTE VA-
512 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CHARLOTTE COUNTY...

AT 510 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHWEST
OF CHASE CITY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND PEA-SIZED HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL STAY OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF CHARLOTTE COUNTY
NORTHEAST OF WYLLIESBURG.

LAT...LON 3686 7851 3685 7852 3682 7854 3681 7856
      3686 7856 3691 7849 3691 7848 3689 7848

DS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
518 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

WVZ045-032145-
GREENBRIER WV-
518 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT GREENBRIER COUNTY...

AT 514 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTH OF
LEWISBURG...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS AROUND 545 PM.

LAT...LON 3783 8022 3775 8035 3788 8048 3793 8039

DS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
532 PM EDT TUE JUL 03 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SSE BETHANY           36.27N 79.83W
07/03/2012                   ROCKINGHAM         NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON WINGED ELM WAY

&&

FISHER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
533 PM EDT TUE JUL 03 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SSE BETHANY           36.27N 79.83W
07/03/2012                   ROCKINGHAM         NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN AT WOOLEN STONE ROAD

&&

FISHER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
536 PM EDT TUE JUL 03 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     HAIL             6 SSE CHRISTIANSBURG    37.06N 80.38W
07/03/2012  E1.00 INCH       MONTGOMERY         VA   PUBLIC

            ROUTE 615 AND 669 IN RINER. MOSTLY PEA SIZE HAIL WITH
            SOME AS LARGE AS A QUARTER.

&&

FISHER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
536 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

VAZ045-032200-
CAMPBELL VA-
536 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CAMPBELL COUNTY...

AT 535 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF RUSTBURG...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. VERY HEAVY RAIN
WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND
QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS. EXPECT FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING FROM THIS STORM. DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN OR
SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN
A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR RUSTBURG AROUND 545 PM.

LAT...LON 3729 7903 3713 7915 3724 7930 3736 7917

DS