Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1216 AM EDT MON JUL 2 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ONGOING HEAT
WAVE...WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS A RESULT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1205 AM EDT MONDAY...

SVR TSTM WATCH 452 HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO COVER OUR NC COUNTIES AND
EAST TO PITTSYLVANIA COUNTY VA.

POPS ARE INCREASED AS LINE OF STORMS SHIFTS EAST AT 40-50
MPH...AND THINK MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE MEASURABLE PRECIP THROUGH 4 AM.

PLAYED LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT CLOSE TO THE ADJMET WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP AGAIN WITH POSSIBLE MCS AND
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION.
SWODY2 KEEPS REGION IN SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY. HIGH MONDAY WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
THE UPPER 90S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM EDT SUNDAY...

NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION AS A WEAK SFC WARM FRONT
SLOWLY LIFTS BACK TO THE NE UNDER EXPANDING HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH.
THIS COMBO WITH A LEFTOVER LEE TROF SHOULD MAKE FOR MORE DAILY
ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA WITH POSSIBLE MCS FEATURES AGAIN DIVING SE INTO
THE REGION. TIMING OF THIS SCENARIO THOUGH QUITE IFFY AS
AFTERNOON/EVENING DEVELOPMENT MAY BE REDUCED SOME IF OVERNIGHT STORM
CLUSTERS DROP SE. THUS WILL RUN WITH HIGHER CHANCE POPS DURING THE
MORE DIURNALLY FAVORED TIMES...BUT LEAVE IN SOME POPS DURING THE
NIGHT PERIODS TO COVER. OTRW MORE WARM AND MUGGY GIVEN MOISTURE
AROUND BUT NOT QUITE AS HOT ESPCLY WEST WHERE MORE COOLING VIA
SHRA/TSRA SHOULD OCCUR. HOWEVER STILL WILL SEE ENOUGH HEATING FOR AT
LEAST LOW/MID 90S EAST AND PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 90S AGAIN BY THE 4TH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM EDT SUNDAY...

WEAK 5H TROFFINESS ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AND SHIFT EAST BY THE WEEKEND AS THE LARGE MID LEVEL HIGH ACROSS THE
PLAINS ATTEMPTS TO EXTEND EAST. THIS MAY ACT TO DETER OVERALL
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WHILE MAKING FOR MORE OF A NW FLOW MCS TYPE
SCENARIO LATER IN THE PERIOD AS IMPULSES DIVE SE AROUND THE RIDGE.
HOWVER WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE EXPECT MORE EPISODES OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA INTO FRIDAY BEFORE BECOMING MORE MCS
COMPLEX ORIENTED BY THE WEEKEND. STRONGER COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH
MAY MAKE A RUN BY SUNDAY PER LATEST GFS BUT GIVEN THE STRONGER
RIDGING WILL GO CLOSER TO THE EURO AND HOLD THE BOUNDARY TO THE
NORTH. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL WITH MORE 90S EAST AND
CLOSE TO 90 OR WARMER WEST THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT SUNDAY...

FORECAST OVERALL WILL BE VFR BUT WILL BE DEALING AGAIN WITH
ORGANIZED STORM POTENTIAL LATER THIS EVENING AND AGAIN MONDAY.
ATTM...MODELS VARY TOO MUCH TO MAKE A CONFIDENT FORECAST. IN THE
NEXT 6 HOURS THE LATEST RAP MODEL SEEMS TO BE ON THE FAST EDGE OF
THE STORMS IN OHIO/NW WV...BUT DOING THE BEST IN PLACEMENT. WILL
HAVE A PERIOD OF VCTS COMING INTO LWB/BLF AT 0130Z THEN BCB/ROA BY
03Z...LASTING FOR 2-3 HRS. KEPT THE EAST FREE OF CONVECTON BUT THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THIS SYSTEM OF STORMS TO MOVE INTO THIS AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH ANY STORMS...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE GUSTY NW
WINDS AND THE RAP MODEL IS SHOWING A BRIEF PERIOD 1-2 HRS OF GUSTY
NW WINDS IN THE MTNS.

KEPT SOME MINOR FOG ISSUES AFTER MIDNIGHT IN LWB BUT KEPT IT OUT ELSEWHERE.

FOR MONDAY...NOT CONFIDENT ON THE FORECAST BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED FOR ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS TO MOVE IN SOMETIME
BETWEEN DAWN AND MID AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF THIS IT WILL BE VFR.

EXECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY... THOUGH WILL LIKELY
SEE MORE AREAS OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY DUE TO FOG EARLY EACH
MORNING FROM TUESDAY ONWARD...ESPECIALLY AT KLWB AND KBLF.
ALSO...EXPECT TO SEE AN UPTICK IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND
ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND DRIFTS WESTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER-MID
MS VALLEY. TERRAIN- INDUCED AFTERNOON CONVECTION CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED MONDAY- FRIDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH BROKEN TODAY JULY 1ST FOR BLF WITH 90...WHICH BREAKS
THE OLD RECORD OF 88 IN 2005.

RECORD HIGHS:

FOR MONDAY/2ND
BLACKSBURG 95/1954
BLUEFIELD  87/2011
DANVILLE 100/1954
LYNCHBURG 99/1898
ROANOKE 100/1954

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RAB/WP
NEAR TERM...DS/KK/WP
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...KK/WP
CLIMATE...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1256 AM EDT MON JUL 2 2012

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ011>019-022>024-032>035-043-044-WVZ044-030500-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-
ALLEGHANY VA-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-
AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-MONROE-
1256 AM EDT MON JUL 2 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 452 IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS
MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

THESE STORMS MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
QUARTER-SIZED HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS...AND FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-
GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

VAZ045>047-058-059-030500-
CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
1256 AM EDT MON JUL 2 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT
WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
QUARTER-SIZED HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS...AND FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-
GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VAZ007-009-010-020-WVZ042-043-045-030500-
TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-BATH-MERCER-SUMMERS-GREENBRIER-
1256 AM EDT MON JUL 2 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST
CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER LOW AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
QUARTER-SIZED HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS...AND FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-
GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1220 AM EDT MON JUL 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1215 AM     TSTM WND GST     2 NE DUBLIN             37.14N 80.68W
07/02/2012  M64 MPH          PULASKI            VA   AWOS

            AT NEW RIVER VALLEY AIRPORT.

&&

WHP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1229 AM EDT MON JUL 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1224 AM     TSTM WND GST     2 SSE BLACKSBURG        37.21N 80.41W
07/02/2012  M51.00 MPH       MONTGOMERY         VA   MESONET

1226 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 WSW BLACKSBURG        37.22N 80.45W
07/02/2012                   MONTGOMERY         VA   PUBLIC

            TREE DOWN AT FOXRIDGE APARTMENTS.

&&

WHP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1245 AM EDT MON JUL 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1142 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 WSW COLEMAN STORE     36.87N 81.02W
07/01/2012                   WYTHE              VA   CO-OP OBSERVER

            TREES DOWN ON HUDDLE ROAD

&&

MBS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1253 AM EDT MON JUL 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1150 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FLATRIDGE               36.73N 81.32W
07/01/2012                   GRAYSON            VA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POWERLINES WERE BLOWN DOWN IN THE COMMUNITY FLATRIDGE.

&&

16

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1258 AM EDT MON JUL 2 2012

VAZ022-023-033-034-020530-
BEDFORD VA-BOTETOURT VA-FRANKLIN VA-ROANOKE VA-
1258 AM EDT MON JUL 2 2012

...SHOWERS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT BEDFORD...BOTETOURT...FRANKLIN
AND ROANOKE COUNTIES...

AT 1254 AM EDT...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN
WERE ALONG A LINE FROM 6 MILES EAST OF CATAWBA TO 6 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF ROANOKE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF ROANOKE COUNTY AND THE CITIES OF SALEM
AND ROANOKE.

THESE SHOWERS WILL BE NEAR ROANOKE MOUNTAIN AROUND 105 AM...VINTON
AROUND 110 AM...LAYMANTOWN AROUND 115 AM AND STEWARTSVILLE AROUND 125
AM.

LAT...LON 3736 7971 3710 7978 3723 8011 3741 8006

DS