Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
732 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DIP SOUTH INTO THE AREA LATER
SUNDAY BEFORE STALLING INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM EDT SATURDAY...

UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE LEADING TO PULSE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE SOUTH AND EAST TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE
SOUTH OF FLOYD AND SOUTH OF LYH. WILL HAVE TO WATCH UPSTREAM
CONVECTION OVER OHIO VALLEY TO SEE IF ITS INTENSITY INCREASES
LATER AND SHIFTS SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR AREA LATE. UNTIL THEN...WILL
BE DEALING WITH SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND OUT EAST.
MODELS SEEMING TO HAVE PLACEMENT ISSUES. WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS IN
THE SOUTH EARLY THEN SHIFT IT NORTH LATE. NO CHANGES YET BEYOND
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WILL BE LETTING HEAT ADVISORY/EXCESSIVIE HEAT
WARNINGS EXPIRE ON TIME AS HEAT INDICIES HAVE DROPPED BELOW 105F.

THE NEXT S/W THAT IS CURRENTLY BACK OVER IL. MODELS GRAB THIS
FEATURE AND SLIDE INTO TOWARD THE WESTERN SLOPES AROUND DAYBREAK
SUNDAY THEN FIZZLE IT AS IT ENCOUNTERS A STRONGER DOWNSLOPED
ENVIRONMENT THAT MAY LIMIT ADDED DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY
AS MIXING DIMINISHES. THEREFORE INCLUDED A BIT HIGHER CHANCE OF
TSRA OVER THE NW LATE TONIGHT...THEN MAINLY ISOLATED COVERAGE
SUNDAY PENDING LATER ORGANIZATION.

EXPECT LOW TEMPS TO BE ABLE TO FALL INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE VALLEYS
OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY LOW/MID 70S ELSW. HIGHS AGAIN CLOSE TO 100
BLUE RIDGE EAST SUNDAY AS 85H TEMPS WARM A LITTLE AND NW DOWNSLOPE
GIVES A BOOST. ALSO A FEW MORE RECORDS LIKELY TO FALL PER CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW WHILE HEAT CRITERIA A BIT MORE IFFY AS LOW LEVEL
DRYING TAKES PLACE. SINCE LOOKING AT MARGINAL CRITERIA FOR ONLY A
FEW HOURS PLAN TO ONLY INCLUDE A FEW SE CTYS IN ANOTHER ADVISORY FOR
SUNDAY FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL REMAIN THE MAIN FEATURE IN OUR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK...WHICH WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES VERY MUCH
ON THE WARM SIDE. THAT STATED...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
FROM NEW ENGLAND ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...
BRINGING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA. AT THE VERY LEAST...THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TAKE
THE EDGE OFF OF THE EXCESSIVELY HIGH TEMPERATURES BY A FEW
DEGREES...AND WILL BE LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW 100
ACROSS THE PIEDMONTS...ALTHOUGH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS
THE EAST WILL STILL BE COMMON.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS SOMEWHAT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND
WE CAN EXPECT TO TRANSITION TO A LITTLE BIT MORE OF A TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME WEATHER PATTERN...WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...
AND DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE DURING THE LATE EVENING. HIGHS WILL
REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE...WITH MID 80S TO AROUND 90 EXPECTED ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS...AND LOW TO MID 90S EXPECTED ACROSS THE PIEDMONTS.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT SATURDAY...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STAY IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END
OF THE COMING WORKWEEK AS A COLD FRONT DRIFTS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY...AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH
OUR AREA ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. BY THE TIME THE FRONT MAKES IT
THROUGH OUR AREA...IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE WEAKENED TO THE POINT
WHERE THERE IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY...AND WE CAN STILL EXPECT MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST
OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND LOWER 90S ACROSS THE PIEDMONTS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY HIGHS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DOES BUILD INTO OUR AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT HOWEVER...AND WE CAN EXPECT LOWER RAIN CHANCES FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 720 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MAINLY WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD OUTSIDE ANY SCATTERED
CONVECTION THIS EVENING. THIS CONVECTION IS MAINLY SITUATED FROM
NEAR BLF-JFZ ESE TO HLX WITH ISOLATED COVEARAGE EAST OF LYH. THINK
BLF HAS BEST THREAT THROUGH 01Z OF GETTINGT TSRA SO PUT A TEMPO
GROUP TO COVER THIS. MAY SEE SOME FOG OVERNIGHT IN THE GREENBRIER
VALLEY AND AROUN DANVILLE...OTHERWISE VFR.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH CONVECTION UPSTREAM OVER OHIO-ILLINOIS AND IF
THE FLOW TURNS THIS SYSTEM SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MODELS CURRENTLY SLIDING MOST OF THIS NORTH OF OUR AREA.

WILL SEE MORE DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AFTN MAINLY EAST OF THE MTNS.
OVERALL...KEPT VFR CONDITIONS.

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THOUGH
WILL LIKELY SEE MORE AREAS OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY DUE TO FOG EARLY
EACH MORNING FROM MONDAY ONWARD...ESPECIALLY AT KLWB AND KBLF.
ALSO...EXPECT TO SEE AN UPTICK IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND
ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND DRIFTS WESTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER-MID
MS VALLEY. TERRAIN- INDUCED AFTERNOON CONVECTION CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED MONDAY- WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS:

              SATURDAY/30TH  SUNDAY/1ST
BLACKSBURG     92/1966         92/1959
BLUEFIELD      88/1969         88/2005
DANVILLE      103/1959        100/1990
LYNCHBURG     103/1936         98/1970
ROANOKE       104/1936        100/1931

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ044-
     046-047-058-059.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ043-044-058-
     059.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ022>024-
     032>035-043-045.
NC...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ006.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ004>006.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ003>005-019-
     020.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...JH/WP
CLIMATE...

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
758 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0756 PM     HAIL             1 NNW TAZEWELL          37.14N 81.53W
06/30/2012  E0.25 INCH       TAZEWELL           VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL ON WHITLEY BRANCH ROAD

&&

MBS