Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1222 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DIP SOUTH INTO THE AREA LATER
SUNDAY BEFORE STALLING INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1215 AM EDT SUNDAY...

KEEPING THREAT OF CONVECTION IN THE EAST FOR THE NEXT 2-3 HRS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE ISSUES WITH THIS SITUATION NOT SHOWING
MUCH PRECIP. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON MESO-ANALYSIS AND
RADAR TRENDS. STILL KEEPING POPS ON THE LOW END IN THE WEST AS NOT
SEEING ANYTHING UPSTREAM THAT IS FORMING/ORGANIZING DESPITE THE
HIGHER CAPES.

DID NOT MAKE MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECASTED TEMPS WITH WARM MUGGY
CONDITIONS REMAINING OVER MOST OF THE AREA.

HIGHS AGAIN CLOSE TO 100 BLUE RIDGE EAST SUNDAY AS 85H TEMPS WARM
A LITTLE AND NW DOWNSLOPE GIVES A BOOST. ALSO A FEW MORE RECORDS
LIKELY TO FALL PER CLIMATE SECTION BELOW WHILE HEAT CRITERIA A BIT
MORE IFFY AS LOW LEVEL DRYING TAKES PLACE. SINCE LOOKING AT
MARGINAL CRITERIA FOR ONLY A FEW HOURS PLAN TO ONLY INCLUDE A FEW
SE CTYS IN ANOTHER ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL REMAIN THE MAIN FEATURE IN OUR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK...WHICH WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES VERY MUCH
ON THE WARM SIDE. THAT STATED...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
FROM NEW ENGLAND ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...
BRINGING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA. AT THE VERY LEAST...THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TAKE
THE EDGE OFF OF THE EXCESSIVELY HIGH TEMPERATURES BY A FEW
DEGREES...AND WILL BE LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW 100
ACROSS THE PIEDMONTS...ALTHOUGH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS
THE EAST WILL STILL BE COMMON.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS SOMEWHAT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND
WE CAN EXPECT TO TRANSITION TO A LITTLE BIT MORE OF A TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME WEATHER PATTERN...WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...
AND DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE DURING THE LATE EVENING. HIGHS WILL
REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE...WITH MID 80S TO AROUND 90 EXPECTED ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS...AND LOW TO MID 90S EXPECTED ACROSS THE PIEDMONTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT SATURDAY...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STAY IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END
OF THE COMING WORKWEEK AS A COLD FRONT DRIFTS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY...AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH
OUR AREA ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. BY THE TIME THE FRONT MAKES IT
THROUGH OUR AREA...IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE WEAKENED TO THE POINT
WHERE THERE IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY...AND WE CAN STILL EXPECT MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST
OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND LOWER 90S ACROSS THE PIEDMONTS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY HIGHS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DOES BUILD INTO OUR AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT HOWEVER...AND WE CAN EXPECT LOWER RAIN CHANCES FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 720 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MAINLY WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD OUTSIDE ANY SCATTERED
CONVECTION THIS EVENING. THIS CONVECTION IS MAINLY SITUATED FROM
NEAR BLF-JFZ ESE TO HLX WITH ISOLATED COVEARAGE EAST OF LYH. THINK
BLF HAS BEST THREAT THROUGH 01Z OF GETTINGT TSRA SO PUT A TEMPO
GROUP TO COVER THIS. MAY SEE SOME FOG OVERNIGHT IN THE GREENBRIER
VALLEY AND AROUN DANVILLE...OTHERWISE VFR.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH CONVECTION UPSTREAM OVER OHIO-ILLINOIS AND IF
THE FLOW TURNS THIS SYSTEM SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MODELS CURRENTLY SLIDING MOST OF THIS NORTH OF OUR AREA.

WILL SEE MORE DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AFTN MAINLY EAST OF THE MTNS.
OVERALL...KEPT VFR CONDITIONS.

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THOUGH
WILL LIKELY SEE MORE AREAS OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY DUE TO FOG EARLY
EACH MORNING FROM MONDAY ONWARD...ESPECIALLY AT KLWB AND KBLF.
ALSO...EXPECT TO SEE AN UPTICK IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND
ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND DRIFTS WESTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER-MID
MS VALLEY. TERRAIN- INDUCED AFTERNOON CONVECTION CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED MONDAY- WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS:

              SATURDAY/30TH             SUNDAY/1ST
BLACKSBURG  NEW 95/2012  OLD 92/1966      92/1959
BLUEFIELD   NEW 96/2012  OLD 88/1969      88/2005
DANVILLE    103/1959                     100/1990
LYNCHBURG   103/1936                      98/1970
ROANOKE     104/1936                     100/1931

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR VAZ043-044-058-059.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NCZ004>006.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...JH/WP
CLIMATE...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
908 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012

NCZ001>003-018>020-VAZ007-009-010-012>017-022-032>034-045-020115-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-WATAUGA-WILKES-YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-
WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-ROANOKE-PATRICK-
FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-CAMPBELL-
908 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A FEW STORMS THIS EVENING WILL BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH THE MAIN THREAT DAMAGING WINDS.

HOT TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
90S...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VAZ011-018>020-023-024-035-046-047-WVZ042>045-020115-
GILES-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-AMHERST-
APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER-
908 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

HOT TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
90S...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ004>006-VAZ043-044-058-059-020115-
STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
908 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
AND SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A FEW STORMS THIS EVENING COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HOT TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S TO
AROUND 100...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1058 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0954 PM     HAIL             2 SSE STUART            36.60N 80.27W
06/30/2012  E0.88 INCH       PATRICK            VA   PUBLIC

&&

WHP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1131 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012

VAZ012-015-016-010415-
CARROLL VA-GRAYSON VA-WYTHE VA-
1131 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CARROLL...GRAYSON AND WYTHE
COUNTIES...

AT 1127 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF SPEEDWELL...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND HAIL UP TO PENNY SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR FRIES AROUND 1140 PM...GALAX CITY AROUND 1150
PM...PIPERS GAP AROUND 1155 PM...HILLSVILLE AROUND MIDNIGHT...
LAMBSBURG AROUND 1205 AM AND FANCY GAP AROUND 1210 AM.

LAT...LON 3684 8116 3680 8058 3656 8066 3656 8088
      3667 8122

16

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1150 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012

VAZ033-034-010445-
BEDFORD VA-FRANKLIN VA-
1150 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT BEDFORD AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES...

AT 1149 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER ROCKY
MOUNT...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND HAIL UP TO PENNY SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR OAK LEVEL AROUND 1155 PM...SONTAG AROUND
MIDNIGHT...SOUTHERN SMITH MOUNTAIN LAKE AROUND 1210 AM AND PENHOOK
AROUND 1215 AM.

LAT...LON 3683 8000 3691 8020 3699 8012 3708 8011
      3712 8013 3716 8009 3717 8001 3714 7999
      3714 7996 3719 7989 3706 7944 3706 7949
      3702 7946 3701 7948 3705 7954 3704 7959
      3685 7965 3679 7976

16

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1241 AM EDT SUN JUL 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1240 AM     HAIL             1 S HOT SPRINGS         37.99N 79.83W
07/01/2012  E0.50 INCH       BATH               VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME SIZED HAIL.

&&

WHP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1251 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

VAZ016-032-010530-
CARROLL VA-PATRICK VA-
1251 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEAST CARROLL AND WESTERN
PATRICK COUNTIES...

AT 1248 AM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF HILLSVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM. EXPECT FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING FROM THIS STORM. DO
NOT STAY IN THE OPEN OR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING
THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR LAUREL FORK AROUND 115 AM...GROUNDHOG
MOUNTAIN AROUND 125 AM AND ARARAT AROUND 130 AM.

LAT...LON 3655 8047 3672 8072 3679 8067 3676 8050
      3672 8047 3674 8046 3675 8043 3672 8025
      3655 8035

RAB

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