Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
806 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
STALLED COLD FRONT GETS A SLIGHT PUSH OVERNIGHT WITH MORE STORMS. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH LATER TONIGHT AND ON SATURDAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER WEATHER FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SENT AN UPDATE TO BE MORE DETERMINISTIC ON SHOWERS AND STORMS
ENTERING SOUTHEAST OH AROUND 00Z. WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
IN PLACE THROUGH 07Z...RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO BE NEARLY STATIONARY TO THE WEST OF
CWA THIS AFTERNOON...AND IS DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT. THINKING ITS
STRETCHED TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL OHIO TO
AROUND CINCINNATI AREA. MODELS STILL FORECAST IT TO MOVE TO THE
EAST TONIGHT AND END UP SOMEWHERE NEAR THE OHIO RIVER AROUND
06-12Z. DOESNT LOOK AS IF IT WILL TOTALLY KICK OUT OF THE CWA
UNTIL LATER SATURDAY WHEN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH AREA.

ACROSS CWA THIS AFTERNOON...A WARM...HUMID...AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS
REMAINS IN PLACE. AMPLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA TODAY
HAS KEPT TEMPS DOWN...BUT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE FORMING BEHIND
THE FIRST LINE OF CONVECTION...MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN
ZONES THIS AM/EARLY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL ONLY HELP TO FUEL
INSTABILITY AND TEMPERATURES. DID ELECT TO LOWER DAYTIME HIGHS
SLIGHTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA FOR REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON.

FOCUS TONIGHT TURNS TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER GREAT
LAKES THAT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SPC CONTINUES TO HAVE
NORTHWESTERN PART OF CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK...AS THE SHORTWAVE
INTERACTS WITH THE MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND WITH
AROUND 30 KTS BULK SHEAR...DECENT WINDS ALOFT...COULD SEE SOME
STRONG WINDS WITH A FEW STORMS. IN ADDITION...AS MENTIONED IN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH PW VALUES ARE NOT AS HIGH AS
THURSDAY...WITH THE VERY WET SOILS IN PLACE...MANY LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA LAST NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
EASTERN KENTUCKY...RECEIVING 2.5 TO AROUND 5 INCHES OF RAIN...DID
ELECT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SHORTWAVE AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH AREA TOMORROW...WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT DOES SO. WITH
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...KEPT OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ON THE WARM
SIDE OF GUIDANCE...AND USED A BLEND OF MET AND MAV FOR MAX TEMPS
SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WITH MID LEVEL TROF AXIS SHIFTING TO OUR EAST...ANY LINGER SHOWER
SHOULD BE DISSIPATING OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES SATURDAY
EVENING.  WILL INTRODUCE SOME FOG FOR THE EKN TO CRW AND SOUTHERN
COAL FIELDS FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.  YET...A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT
THE LINGERING 850 MOISTURE.  CERTAINLY NOT THE DRIEST AIR IN THE WAKE
MID LEVEL TROF.  HOPING THE DIURNAL TREND WOULD BE FOR ONLY
SCATTERED CLOUDS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THEN INCREASED CLOUDS AGAIN
DURING SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES.  LEFT POPS
AOB 14 PCT SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF A MOUNTAIN SHOWER FORMING...IN THE WEAK FLOW.
YET...WITH WEAK SOUTHEAST FLOW SEEMS A BETTER BET ON MONDAY...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME CHANCE POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES.

NO BIG CHANGES IN OUR TEMPERATURE FORECAST.  WITH WETTER
GROUND...DID NOT GO ABOVE GUIDANCE IN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB BETWEEN HUDSON BAY AND LABRADOR SEA AND THE
RESULTANT WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING...NO BIG CHANGES...AT LEAST
FOR TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. IT SEEMS THIS NW FLOW PATTERN WILL TRY TO
BREAK DOWN COME DAY 6 AND DAY 7.

HARD TO TIME EACH INDIVIDUAL SUPPORT/DISTURBANCE RIDING SE...SO WILL
MOSTLY STAY WITH DIURNAL INCREASE IN POPS FOR TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.  THINKING THE DEEPER MOISTURE MAY EVENTUALLY BE PUSHED TO
OUR SOUTHEAST...DOWN ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE...AND IN THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. WITH
JUICY AIRMASS AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES AROUND...ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST KY...SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OH...AND SOUTHERN HALF OF WV TONIGHT. EXPECT
MVFR/IFR VISBY AND CEILINGS ALONG THE STRONGEST STORMS THROUGH AT
LEAST 06Z. THESE CONDITIONS COULD AFFECT HTS...AND CRW MOST LIKELY
THAN OTHER SITES.IN ADDITION...STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY
SOME STORMS. SOME IMPROVEMENT AFTER 15Z ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WEST...BUT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER LONGER ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
EAST...PARTICULARLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR WILL PREVAIL AT OTHER SITES ALONG RAIN
SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION MAY VARY FROM FORECAST.
TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT OF CIGS FROM IFR/MVFR MAY VARY FROM
FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            SAT 07/28/12
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-025>032-038>040.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KTB/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ/SL
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...ARJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
835 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

OHZ067-075-076-084-085-WVZ008>011-015>020-025-026-290045-
MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-VINTON-MEIGS-JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-
TYLER-KANAWHA-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-LOGAN-BOONE-
835 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EDT SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OHIO...CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ083-086-087-WVZ005>007-013-014-290045-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-JACKSON OH-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-WAYNE-
CABELL-MASON-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-
835 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EDT SATURDAY...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 534 IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EDT SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND WESTERN WEST
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

OHZ066-290045-
PERRY-
835 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VAZ003-004-WVZ024-033>037-046-047-290045-
DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-MINGO-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-
POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
835 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...CENTRAL
WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

WVZ027>032-038>040-290045-
CLAY-BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-
835 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EDT SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA AND
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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