Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
806 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
STALLED COLD FRONT GETS A SLIGHT PUSH OVERNIGHT WITH MORE STORMS. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH LATER TONIGHT AND ON SATURDAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER WEATHER FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SENT AN UPDATE TO BE MORE DETERMINISTIC ON SHOWERS AND STORMS
ENTERING SOUTHEAST OH AROUND 00Z. WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
IN PLACE THROUGH 07Z...RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO BE NEARLY STATIONARY TO THE WEST OF
CWA THIS AFTERNOON...AND IS DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT. THINKING ITS
STRETCHED TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL OHIO TO
AROUND CINCINNATI AREA. MODELS STILL FORECAST IT TO MOVE TO THE
EAST TONIGHT AND END UP SOMEWHERE NEAR THE OHIO RIVER AROUND
06-12Z. DOESNT LOOK AS IF IT WILL TOTALLY KICK OUT OF THE CWA
UNTIL LATER SATURDAY WHEN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH AREA.

ACROSS CWA THIS AFTERNOON...A WARM...HUMID...AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS
REMAINS IN PLACE. AMPLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA TODAY
HAS KEPT TEMPS DOWN...BUT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE FORMING BEHIND
THE FIRST LINE OF CONVECTION...MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN
ZONES THIS AM/EARLY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL ONLY HELP TO FUEL
INSTABILITY AND TEMPERATURES. DID ELECT TO LOWER DAYTIME HIGHS
SLIGHTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA FOR REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON.

FOCUS TONIGHT TURNS TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER GREAT
LAKES THAT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SPC CONTINUES TO HAVE
NORTHWESTERN PART OF CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK...AS THE SHORTWAVE
INTERACTS WITH THE MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND WITH
AROUND 30 KTS BULK SHEAR...DECENT WINDS ALOFT...COULD SEE SOME
STRONG WINDS WITH A FEW STORMS. IN ADDITION...AS MENTIONED IN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH PW VALUES ARE NOT AS HIGH AS
THURSDAY...WITH THE VERY WET SOILS IN PLACE...MANY LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA LAST NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
EASTERN KENTUCKY...RECEIVING 2.5 TO AROUND 5 INCHES OF RAIN...DID
ELECT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SHORTWAVE AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH AREA TOMORROW...WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT DOES SO. WITH
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...KEPT OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ON THE WARM
SIDE OF GUIDANCE...AND USED A BLEND OF MET AND MAV FOR MAX TEMPS
SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WITH MID LEVEL TROF AXIS SHIFTING TO OUR EAST...ANY LINGER SHOWER
SHOULD BE DISSIPATING OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES SATURDAY
EVENING.  WILL INTRODUCE SOME FOG FOR THE EKN TO CRW AND SOUTHERN
COAL FIELDS FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.  YET...A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT
THE LINGERING 850 MOISTURE.  CERTAINLY NOT THE DRIEST AIR IN THE WAKE
MID LEVEL TROF.  HOPING THE DIURNAL TREND WOULD BE FOR ONLY
SCATTERED CLOUDS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THEN INCREASED CLOUDS AGAIN
DURING SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES.  LEFT POPS
AOB 14 PCT SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF A MOUNTAIN SHOWER FORMING...IN THE WEAK FLOW.
YET...WITH WEAK SOUTHEAST FLOW SEEMS A BETTER BET ON MONDAY...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME CHANCE POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES.

NO BIG CHANGES IN OUR TEMPERATURE FORECAST.  WITH WETTER
GROUND...DID NOT GO ABOVE GUIDANCE IN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB BETWEEN HUDSON BAY AND LABRADOR SEA AND THE
RESULTANT WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING...NO BIG CHANGES...AT LEAST
FOR TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. IT SEEMS THIS NW FLOW PATTERN WILL TRY TO
BREAK DOWN COME DAY 6 AND DAY 7.

HARD TO TIME EACH INDIVIDUAL SUPPORT/DISTURBANCE RIDING SE...SO WILL
MOSTLY STAY WITH DIURNAL INCREASE IN POPS FOR TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.  THINKING THE DEEPER MOISTURE MAY EVENTUALLY BE PUSHED TO
OUR SOUTHEAST...DOWN ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE...AND IN THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. WITH
JUICY AIRMASS AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES AROUND...ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST KY...SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OH...AND SOUTHERN HALF OF WV TONIGHT. EXPECT
MVFR/IFR VISBY AND CEILINGS ALONG THE STRONGEST STORMS THROUGH AT
LEAST 06Z. THESE CONDITIONS COULD AFFECT HTS...AND CRW MOST LIKELY
THAN OTHER SITES.IN ADDITION...STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY
SOME STORMS. SOME IMPROVEMENT AFTER 15Z ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WEST...BUT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER LONGER ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
EAST...PARTICULARLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR WILL PREVAIL AT OTHER SITES ALONG RAIN
SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION MAY VARY FROM FORECAST.
TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT OF CIGS FROM IFR/MVFR MAY VARY FROM
FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            SAT 07/28/12
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-025>032-038>040.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KTB/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ/SL
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...ARJ

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
716 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

KYZ101-102-OHZ083-086-087-272345-
CARTER KY-GALLIA OH-GREENUP KY-JACKSON OH-LAWRENCE OH-
716 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT GREENUP...NORTH CENTRAL CARTER...
NORTHERN LAWRENCE...SOUTHERN JACKSON AND WEST CENTRAL GALLIA
COUNTIES...

AT 713 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE FROM 8 MILES
NORTH OF PORTSMOUTH TO 27 MILES NORTH OF MOREHEAD...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 50 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THESE STORMS...AND WILL
CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND
SMALL STREAMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR SOUTH PORTSMOUTH AROUND 720 PM...MABEE
AROUND 730 PM...GALLIA AROUND 740 PM AND WATERLOO AROUND 750 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATE...I-64 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
154 AND 161 IN KENTUCKY.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER ON COUNTRY ROADS AND
FARMLAND ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS. THESE STORMS WILL
AFFECT LOCATIONS WHICH RECEIVED HEAVY AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL OVERNIGHT.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3834 8324 3842 8324 3850 8319 3859 8308
      3872 8304 3876 8289 3875 8287 3859 8284
      3860 8275 3868 8277 3869 8271 3884 8266
      3885 8277 3894 8276 3897 8281 3897 8245
      3870 8230 3829 8318 3833 8328

50

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
831 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

OHZ075-083>086-WVZ007-280100-
ATHENS OH-GALLIA OH-JACKSON OH-MASON WV-MEIGS OH-VINTON OH-
831 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL MASON...
NORTHEASTERN GALLIA...NORTHEASTERN JACKSON...VINTON...WESTERN ATHENS
AND WESTERN MEIGS COUNTIES...

AT 829 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE FROM 7 MILES
WEST OF LAKE HOPE STATE PARK TO 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WELLSTON...
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THESE STORMS...AND WILL CAUSE WATER
TO POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL
STREAMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR RADCLIFFE AROUND 840 PM...SALEM CENTER
AROUND 850 PM AND THE PLAINS AROUND 900 PM.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3955 8205 3947 8206 3946 8205 3945 8204
      3887 8205 3897 8259 3938 8258 3938 8252
      3940 8251 3939 8230 3948 8228 3948 8217
      3956 8216

50