Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
236 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. THE
FRONT STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN
NORTH OF THE AREA FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT ALIGNED EAST WEST ACROSS NORTHERN WV IS SLOWLY SAGGING TO
THE SOUTH. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS SHOW WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT YET
BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING. RADAR AND SAT
IR IMAGERY SHOW CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO FIRE IN EARNEST. CONVECTION
HAS BEEN CONFINED MAINLY INVOF OF FRONT...WITH INDIVIDUAL CELL
MOVEMENT TO THE EAST. SHOULD SEE SLIGHT RESPITE OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT OPTED TO NOT NIX POPS
ENTIRELY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

BY MONDAY MORNING...FRONT SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN
COALFIELDS...AND FOCUSING HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. WITH
ELEVATED TERRAIN AND SLIGHTLY BETTER LARGE SCALE DYNAMICS IN
PLAY...THINKING FRONT WILL BE MORE ACTIVE MONDAY MORNING..AS OPPOSED
TO PREVIOUS MORNINGS WHEN PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY WAS NEARLY NON
EXISTENT UNTIL DAYTIME HEATING KICKED IN. FOR TEMPS...STAYED
GENERALLY CLOSER TO THE COOLER MET NUMBERS FOR BOTH OVERNIGHT MINS
AND DAYTIME HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT STALLS OUT OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZONES FOR A MAJORITY OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED DISTURBANCES AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS ALONG THE WV AND VA BORDER. FOR THIS
REASON...WILL KEEP CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK WITH AT LEAST SLGHT CHC
POPS IN FOR THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM. ANY CHANGE IN PLACEMENT OF THE
FORECAST POPS WILL BE IN ANY CREEPING NORTH OR SOUTH THAT THE FRONT
MAY HAVE OVER THAT PERIOD. MODEL TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN LINE WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST...THEREFORE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO
PREVIOUS THINKING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOLLOWING HPC GUIDANCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WHICH FEATURES A
STATIONARY FRONT JUST SE OF OUR WV AND VA MOUNTAIN COUNTIES THROUGH
DAY 5. TIGHTENED THE DIURNAL POP GRADIENT FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THIS
FEATURE FROM WHAT HPC PROPOSED AS OUR WESTERN SLOPES SHOULD STAY ON
THE DRY SIDE GIVEN THE LEE SIDE FRONTAL POSITION. WITH THE FORECAST
FRONT POSITION...RNK SHOULD SEE THE LIONS SHARE OF THE
PRECIPITATION...BUT DECIDED TO KEEP AT LEAST SLGHT CHC POPS IN OUR
SE ZONES DUE TO LOWERED CONFIDENCE ON DAYS 4 AND 5. BERMUDA HIGH
NOSES BACK WEST DAYS 6 AND 7 ALLOWING FOR GREATER MOISTURE TRANSPORT
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. CLOUDS WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT UNDER
THIS REGIME WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL UNDER THIS DISTURBED PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EAST-WEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND MONDAY. AFTERNOON ATMOSPHERE QUITE UNSTABLE...AND
CONVECTION IS STARTING TO FIRE...AND WILL CONTINUE TO FIRE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. MAIN MODE OF CONVECTION WILL
BE PULSE TYPE STORMS...WITH ISOLD DOWNBURSTS AND HAIL. WITH
INCREASING CONVECTION...EXPECT MOST TAF SITES TO HIT AT LEAST MVFR
CRITERIA...WITH SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IF
STORMS MOVE OVER.

THE LIGHT S SFC FLOW WILL SHIFT TO LIGHT NW TODAY AND THEN LIGHT N
TONIGHT.  LIGHT W TO NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
PERIODS OF IFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>032.
OH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KMC/TAX
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...TAX
LONG TERM...KTB/TAX
AVIATION...KMC

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>