Severe Thunderstorm Warning 121, NWS Charleston, WV

212 
WWUS51 KRLX 081821
SVSRLX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
221 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012

WVC007-013-015-021-081831-
/O.CAN.KRLX.SV.W.0121.000000T0000Z-120708T1900Z/
GILMER WV-CLAY WV-CALHOUN WV-BRAXTON WV-
221 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL BRAXTON...
SOUTHERN CALHOUN...EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL CLAY AND SOUTHWESTERN GILMER
COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS
AND NO LONGER POSES A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...THUS THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. HOWEVER...GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL ARE STILL POSSIBLE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
SUNDAY EVENING FOR CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST OHIO AND CENTRAL
WEST VIRGINIA.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL OR STRONG WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3876 8072 3860 8102 3881 8122 3882 8123
      3884 8122 3885 8125 3888 8124 3890 8121
TIME...MOT...LOC 1821Z 299DEG 14KT 3882 8109

$$

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
149 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  THE FRONT STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN NORTH OF THE AREA FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ISOLD SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN KY THIS MORNING. AS
CAP ERODES UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH APPROACH OF FRONT...EXPECT CAP
TO ERODE WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS SHOULD
EASILY BE REALIZED TOWARD MIDDAY WITH STORMS FIRING ALONG THE
FRONT. NOT SURE HOW ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL BE...SINCE THERE IS
LITTLE HINT THAT LARGER SCALE DYNAMICS WILL PROMOTE LARGER STORM
GROWTH. HOWEVER...ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLAY TO ALLOW FOR
SOME INTER STORM INTERACTIONS TO ALLOW SOME TO BECOME SEVERE. MADE
MINIMAL TWEAKS TO CURRENT POPS TRENDS IN THE SHORT TERM. OTHERWISE
NO CHANGES TO CURRENT PACKAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE CWA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...AND APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL BRIEFLY
STALL OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. MODELS APPEAR TO BE A BIT OFF
WITH THE TIMING OF THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT THAN BASED ON
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...AND IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE PROGRESSION OF
THE FRONT INTO THE CWA IS SLOWER THAN WHAT MODEL FORECASTS ARE
SUGGESTING. REGARDLESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
DURING THE SHORT TERM...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES
AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE
CWA...EVENTUALLY EXITING THE CWA SOMETIME LATER MONDAY. SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE PERIOD WILL HELP TO
ENHANCE SHOWERS/STORMS AT TIMES...WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS CONTINUING TO
BE A THREAT IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE...AND DRIER AIR SLOWER TO MOVE INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTH
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...WITH DRIER AIR NOT FILTERING IN UNTIL
LATER MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO FILTER INTO PLACE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE
FRONT...HOWEVER...WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN UNSETTLED AS CWA
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER TROUGH WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS WE GO DEEPER INTO THE DOG DAYS...THE MEAN 500 MB TROF IN THE OH
VLY WEAKENS EVEN FURTHER...BUT DOES NOT REALLY EXIT. A WEAK SUMMER
FLOW REMAINS. NO ORGANIZED FRONTS FROM THE WEST THRU NORTH
FORESEEN.

THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH MAY TRY TO LEAK BACK NORTH IN
TIME...SO CHANCE POPS CREEPING BACK NORTH
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

WITH SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW...LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A BIT
FROM OUR MEDIUM RANGE HPC GUIDANCE FOR OUR USUAL UPSLOPE
AREAS...SUCH AS BECKLEY.  WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME SLOW MOVING HEAVY SHOWERS IN THIS PATTERN ESPECIALLY
OVER OUR MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EAST-WEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND MONDAY. AFTERNOON ATMOSPHERE QUITE UNSTABLE...AND
CONVECTION IS STARTING TO FIRE...AND WILL CONTINUE TO FIRE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. MAIN MODE OF CONVECTION WILL
BE PULSE TYPE STORMS...WITH ISOLD DOWNBURSTS AND HAIL. WITH
INCREASING CONVECTION...EXPECT MOST TAF SITES TO HIT AT LEAST MVFR
CRITERIA...WITH SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IF
STORMS MOVE OVER.

THE LIGHT S SFC FLOW WILL SHIFT TO LIGHT NW TODAY AND THEN LIGHT N
TONIGHT.  LIGHT W TO NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
PERIODS OF IFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>032.
OH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...KMC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
154 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ086-087-WVZ005>008-013>018-024>030-091800-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-WAYNE-CABELL-
MASON-JACKSON WV-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-MINGO-
LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-
154 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 481 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO AND MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

OHZ083-085-WVZ009-019-020-031-032-091800-
JACKSON OH-MEIGS-WOOD-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-HARRISON-TAYLOR-
154 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

WVZ033>040-046-047-091800-
MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-
POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
154 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 481 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

VAZ003-004-091800-
DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-
154 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

OHZ066-067-075-076-084-WVZ010-011-091800-
PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-VINTON-PLEASANTS-TYLER-
154 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
132 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012

WVZ018-081815-
CALHOUN WV-
132 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL CALHOUN COUNTY...

AT 127 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES WEST OF
GRANTSVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM. EXPECT INTENSE LIGHTNING FROM THIS STORM. DO NOT STAY IN THE
OPEN NOR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE
INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

IF THE THUNDERSTORM CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...A SHORT FUSED WARNING
MAY BE NEEDED.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR MOUNT ZION AROUND 205 PM...ARNOLDSBURG AROUND
210 PM AND MILLSTONE AROUND 215 PM.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3891 8101 3885 8100 3884 8101 3883 8101
      3873 8110 3886 8125 3888 8124 3892 8128
      3896 8124

28