Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1119 AM EST WED FEB 29 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS MORNING. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
TONIGHT. DRIER THURSDAY. REPEAT SHOWING OF WARM/COLD FRONT COMBO
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. DRIER/COOLER AIR DEVELOPS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM UPDATE...UPDATED TO SLOW POPS A BIT WITH THE LINE AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT FOR LATER TODAY...AND THEN LINGER THEM LONGER TO
ACCOUNT FOR ANOTHER POTENTIAL SECOND LINE CLOSER TO THE FRONT INTO
THE OVERNIGHT. TIMING ON THESE FEATURES FROM VARIOUS MODELS
DIFFERS...SO DID NOT GET REAL CUTE ON TRYING TO TIME LINES OUT
EXACTLY. SO LOOKING AT SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...WITH STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN ANY ORGANIZED
LINES THAT MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TIMING IS EVERYTHING WITH THIS SYSTEM. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH
THIS MORNING. ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH THIS FRONT WITH GOOD 85H
JET WILL PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH RATHER QUICKLY THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING AROUND 40KT-
50KTS AND WILL GIVE A QUICK BURST OF RAIN OVER THE REGION. COLD
FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. BEST
DOWNPOURS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS THE COLD FRONT. BUT THE AREA
SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE RAIN BETWEEN THE WARM FRONT AND COLD
FRONT...SO WITH THIS BREAK AND THE QUICK MOVING STORMS...SHOULD
KEEP WATER CONCERNS AT BAY FOR NOW. BUT SHOULD BE MONITORED. GUSTY
WINDS WITH THE STORMS AND COLD FRONT COULD BE A CONCERN AS WELL
SINCE A VERY STRONG JET WILL ACCOMPANY THIS LINE AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. TEMPS TODAY WILL WARM QUICKLY AS GOOD WAA ADVECTION WILL
TAKE PLACE AS THE WARM FRONT PASSES THIS MORNING. TEMPS COOL
TONIGHT WITH THE PASSING OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
NO BIG CHANGES FOR THIS PERIOD...AS OUR FAST PACE CONTINUES...WHICH
IS COMMON DURING LATE WINTER...AND THE MONTH OF MARCH.

SUBSIDENCE MID LEVEL INVERSION TRIES TO LOWER INTO THE 5 TO 10 THSD
FOOT RANGE ON THURSDAY...WITH MARGINAL 850 MB MOISTURE AT THE BASE
OF THE INVERSION.  COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
NORTH - BUT FELT OUR 20 POPS STILL APPEAR ON TARGET.

DRY THURSDAY NIGHT.  STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME VALLEY FOG IN THE
SOUTHERN VALLEYS OF WV AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...BUT HAVE NOT
INCLUDED YET.

WE REPEAT THE WARM/COLD FRONTAL COMBO AGAIN ON FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. COMPARED TO THE PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.3 FOR
TODAY...STILL THINKING A BIT LESS...AROUND AN INCH FOR FRIDAY NIGHTS
SYSTEM.  YET...WITH THE RESULT OF THE FIRST SYSTEM TODAY AND
TONIGHT...STILL A CONCERN.  WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK YET.  LETS DEAL WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM TODAY AND THIS
EVENING.

WAS SLIGHTLY FASTER REDUCING POPS FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY.
BASING THE FORECAST ON THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND 12Z FOR THE
CRW-CKB CORRIDOR...CROSSING MOUNTAINS AROUND 15Z SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW
THINKING ON THE ORDER OF .5 TO 1.0 IN OUR QPF FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

IN ITS WAKE...SOME ONLY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG PBZ BORDER AND IN OUR MOUNTAINS...THEN SOME CHANCE POPS
DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS...AGAIN IN THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY INITIALLY BUT CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL INCREASE
DURING THE DAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.
SYSTEM LOOKS SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY/S WITH A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP
POSSIBLE BETWEEN WARM FRONT AND COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. MODEL OUTPUT
CONTINUES TO DEPICT BEST INSTABILITY POST WARM FRONT LATE FRIDAY
WITH MUCAPES AROUND 1000J AND THUS WILL GO WITH CHANCE T-STORMS
BEGINNING 00Z FRI. INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT SAT BUT
ENOUGH WILL REMAIN TO CONTINUE CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS WITH GOOD
FRONTAL LIFT. QPF VALUES LOOK TO BE AROUND THE HALF-INCH TO
THREE-QUARTER INCH AND WITH ENOUGH FORWARD MOTION OF SYSTEM...WOULD
NORMALLY NOT EXPECT MAJOR WATER ISSUES ON ITS OWN MERIT.  BUT
AGAIN...WILL NEED TO MONITOR RAINFALL RECEIVED WITH WEDNESDAY/S
SYSTEM AS IT MAY NOT TAKE MUCH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO CREATE ISSUES.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST
EARLY SAT AND SHOULD BE NEAR THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA/S BORDER BY
12-15Z SAT. THIS MAKES LOW TEMPS SAT MORNING A BIT TRICKY AS TEMPS
MAY STAY ELEVATED MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD BEFORE DROPPING POST
FRONT NEAR SUNRISE.  HAVE TAKEN THIS APPROACH WITH THE CENTRAL PART
OF CWA. PRECIP SHOULD END BY 18Z ACROSS THE AREA EXCEPT MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS WHERE WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. BEYOND THIS PERIOD
MODEL OUTPUT BEGINS TO DIVERGE BUT WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE EC SOLUTION
WHICH DEPICTS A SECONDARY COLD PUSH SUNDAY WHICH RAMPS UP A
SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. AT THIS POINT IN TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN FORCING AND
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF
FORECAST AREA BUT CERTAINLY WARRANTS CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

AFTER THIS SHORTWAVE EXITS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO
AREA WITH DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY WITH ONLY AN INCREASE IN HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z WEDNESDAY THRU 12Z THURSDAY...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING...VFR GIGS AND VSBYS LOWERS TO MVFR AND IFR WITH THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS. COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND GUSTS INCREASE FROM THE SW OUT AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL KEEP THE CHC OF SHOWERS/ISOLD
TSTMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. CIGS AND VSBYS START
TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST TOWARD AND AFTER 06Z THURSDAY AND
BECOMES VFR BY 12Z THURSDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN THE
SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS COULD VARY DURING TODAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    L    M    H    L    M    M    L    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    H    H    M    H    L    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    M    M    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WARM ADVECTION ELEVATED CONVECTION PRODUCED UP TO AN INCH RAINFALL
ACROSS NE WV COUNTIES OF FWA INCLUDING NORTHERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.
UPSHUR COUNTY HAS STREAMS UP...AND OVER POORLY DRAINED ROADS BUT NO
ROAD CLOSURES OR OTHER PROBLEMS.

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT PRODUCED SEVERE WEATHER ALONG THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY EARLIER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUED TO DO SO ON ITS SW
END IN CENTRAL KY THROUGH LATE MORNING...WAS WEAKENING ON ITS NE END
ENTERING CWA.  BETWEEN BREAK AND WEAKENING OF THIS LINE...MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE ADDITIONAL RAIN.  WILL HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR ANY RE-INTENSIFICATION...WHICH COULD PUT OUR
NE COUNTIES OVER THE TOP.

STILL EXPECTING ONE LAST ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM JUST AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT LATE TODAY AND MOVE ACROSS THIS EVENING...ONE LAST
OPPORTUNITY TO PUSH WATER OVER THE TOP.

RFC HAS TORNADO ON COAL AND BELINGTON ON TYGART GOING TO ACTION
STAGE OTHERWISE NO RIVER PROBLEMS...THOUGH FCST STAGES HAVE COME UP
SEVERAL FT SINCE YESTERDAY.

PERSISTENT FLOOD TOOL DOES SHOW MODERATE TO HIGH THREAT N CNTRL WV
COUNTIES INTO THIS AFTERNOON BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE MANIFESTING ONLY
IN HIGH STREAMS AND POOR DRAINAGE ISSUES.  THE THREAT FADES AND THAN
RE-EMERGES SAME AREA LATE TODAY.

WILL KEEP HWO MENTION BUT CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON FFA.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JS/KTB/GG
NEAR TERM...JS/MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...GG
AVIATION...JS/MZ

HYDROLOGY...TRM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
329 AM EST WED FEB 29 2012

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>040-046-047-010830-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-
VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-CABELL-MASON-WOOD-
PLEASANTS-TYLER-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-
DODDRIDGE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-
TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-
BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
329 AM EST WED FEB 29 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND MUCH OF WEST
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

REPETITIVE BATCHES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

THE GROUND IS STILL WETTER THAN NORMAL IN MANY COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY
IN WEST VIRGINIA. RAIN AMOUNTS OF OVER 1.5 INCHES WOULD BE NEEDED
TO RAISE FLOOD CONCERNS. IF THAT THREAT INCREASES...FLOOD WATCHES
MAY BE POSTED FOR THE MOST VULNERABLE COUNTIES.

THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1026 AM EST WED FEB 29 2012

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ075-076-083>087-WVZ005>009-013>015-026-291600-
ATHENS OH-BOONE WV-BOYD KY-CABELL WV-CARTER KY-GALLIA OH-GREENUP KY-
JACKSON WV-JACKSON OH-KANAWHA WV-LAWRENCE OH-LAWRENCE KY-LINCOLN WV-
MASON WV-MEIGS OH-PUTNAM WV-VINTON OH-WASHINGTON OH-WAYNE WV-WOOD WV-
1026 AM EST WED FEB 29 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT BOYD...CABELL...CARTER...
GALLIA...GREENUP...JACKSON...LAWRENCE...LINCOLN...MASON...MEIGS...
NORTHWESTERN BOONE...NORTHWESTERN KANAWHA...PUTNAM...SOUTHERN
ATHENS...SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON...VINTON...WAYNE AND WESTERN WOOD
COUNTIES...

AT 1018 AM EST...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OHIO...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR GALLIA...OAK HILL...COAL GROVE...AND ASHLAND
AROUND 1030 AM...WATERLOO...AID...GAGE...AND CENTERPOINT AROUND 1035
AM...SCOTTOWN AND ADAMSVILLE AROUND 1040 AM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...I-64 BETWEEN MILE
MARKERS 157 AND 191 IN KENTUCKY...AND BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 53
IN WEST VIRGINIA...I-77 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 122 AND 179 IN WEST
VIRGINIA.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3873 8302 3876 8289 3858 8281 3876 8267
      3884 8266 3885 8276 3895 8281 3938 8273
      3930 8144 3907 8151 3903 8158 3901 8153
      3800 8182 3802 8201 3796 8268 3808 8294
      3817 8292 3818 8306 3826 8316 3822 8325

21

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1046 AM EST WED FEB 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1044 AM     HAIL             HUNTINGTON              38.41N  82.43W
02/29/2012  E0.25 INCH       CABELL             WV   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1200099

LS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1100 AM EST WED FEB 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0914 AM     HEAVY RAIN       CAMDEN ON GAULEY        38.37N  80.60W
02/29/2012  M1.11 INCH       WEBSTER            WV   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1200100

LS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1119 AM EST WED FEB 29 2012

WVZ008-015-016-018-027>030-036>038-291700-
BRAXTON WV-CALHOUN WV-CLAY WV-FAYETTE WV-GILMER WV-JACKSON WV-
KANAWHA WV-LEWIS WV-NICHOLAS WV-ROANE WV-WEBSTER WV-
1119 AM EST WED FEB 29 2012

...AN AREA STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT BRAXTON...
CLAY...KANAWHA...NICHOLAS...NORTH CENTRAL FAYETTE...ROANE...SOUTH
CENTRAL LEWIS...SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON...SOUTHERN CALHOUN...SOUTHERN
GILMER AND WEST CENTRAL WEBSTER COUNTIES...

AT 1112 AM EST...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTH OF
CHARLESTON...MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND PEA-SIZED HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR CLENDENIN...WALTON...POND GAP...AND
GANDEEVILLE AROUND 1125 AM...PROCIOUS...AMMA...GLEN...AND LEFT HAND
AROUND 1130 AM...CLAY AND WALLBACK AROUND 1135 AM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...I-64 BETWEEN MILE
MARKERS 51 AND 57 IN WEST VIRGINIA...I-77 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 96 AND
131 IN WEST VIRGINIA...I-79 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 80...THE WEST
VIRGINIA TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 88 AND 95.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3813 8067 3824 8178 3846 8173 3847 8172
      3848 8173 3877 8167 3889 8042

08