Severe Thunderstorm Warning 92, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
402 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES...WITH HEAT PREVAILING AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECAST BROUGHT TO YOU BY RLX AT PBZ. THANKS TO PBZ FOR THE
ACCOMMODATIONS.

CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ALREADY UNDERWAY NORTHWEST OF CWA IN NORTHERN
ILLINOIS/INDIANA...AND LOOKS TO BE THE PROBLEM CHILD FOR THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. HIGHLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT GIVING CAPE OVER
4000J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH MAY BE A LITTLE
INFLATED WITH NAM DEWPOINT BIASES. REGARDLESS...PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY TO BE FOUND...FOR PROPAGATING MCS TOWARDS THE MIDDLE
OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. STEERING WINDS ARE ABOUT
HALF THEY WERE A COUPLE DAYS AGO...AND DO NOT EXPECT AS QUICK OF A
FORWARD MOTION. BEST CAPE IN HAIL GROWTH ZONE...SO COULD SEE HAIL
THREAT ALONG WITH ANOTHER WIND THREAT. WITH THE CONVECTION ALREADY
BEGUN NORTHWEST OF HERE...THINK IT IS ONLY A MATTER OF TIME
BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF WEATHER FOR OUR AREA. WILL TRY TO UPDATE
AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE.

ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS MONDAY. NUMBERS
MAY NOT MAKE IT TO THE 100 NEEDED IN THE HEAT INDEX...BUT FIGURE
THAT WITH MANY PEOPLE IN THE AREA WITHOUT POWER...IT IS MORE THAN
JUSTIFIED AS WEST VIRGINIA AND OHIO TRY TO GET BACK ON THEIR FEET.
LEFT THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES AND VIRGINIA COUNTIES OUT FOR NOW WITH
LOWER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KEEPING THIS SHORT... HEAT CONTINUES ALTHOUGH MAYBE A COUPLE
NOTCHES BELOW NEAR TERM VALUES...WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
CONTINUING IN THE PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. CANNOT LEAVE
POPS OUT DURING THE OVERNIGHT IN GOOD FAITH GIVEN THE VOLATILE
PATTERN...BUT HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES DIFFERENCES IN MODEL GUIDANCE THAT
LEADS TO DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF ANY PRECIPITATION.
ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...GOING WITH HPC GUIDANCE WHICH USES A BLEND
OF THE ECMWF AND GFS. CWA STAYS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE KEEPING THE HOT TEMPERATURES IN PLACE...BUT ALSO PROVIDES SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES KEEPING THE LOW CHC POPS IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONVECTION EXPECTED WITH DEVELOPMENT ALREADY SEEN UPSTREAM IN THE
CHICAGO AREA ONCE AGAIN. THIS FEATURE IS SLOWER THAN A COUPLE DAYS
AGO...AND WILL SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES IN THE COMING HOURS...SO HAVE
UTILIZED THE VCTS/CB AT THE TERMINALS FOR NOW. CAN SEE THIS BEING
UPGRADED TO TSRA TEMPO TSRA IN THE 00Z ISSUANCE FOR SPECIFIC
LOCATIONS.

CARRY THE TIMING FROM GENERALLY 22Z THROUGH AROUND 06Z TONIGHT FOR
THE CONVECTION...AND EXPECT A QUIET ATMOSPHERE POST COMPLEX WITH A
CALM WIND TAKING OVER. THOSE SITES THAT SEE RAIN SHOULD FOG
EFFICIENTLY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT. WILL BRING THE
VISIBILITIES UP WITH DAWN...AND MORE CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT MONDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MAY NEED TO ADJUST CONVECTION TIMING.
EVOLUTION WILL DICTATE WHICH SITES WILL BE AFFECTED DIRECTLY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN TSRA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005>007-
     013>015-024>026.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>019-024>029.
OH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ086-087.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...26/TAX
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...TAX
AVIATION...26

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
511 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

VAZ003-004-WVZ030>040-046-047-022115-
DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-
FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
511 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...CENTRAL
WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

WVZ020-022115-
DODDRIDGE-
511 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 446 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

OHZ066-067-075-076-083>085-WVZ008>011-016>019-027-029-022115-
PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-JACKSON WV-
WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-CLAY-GILMER-
511 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 446 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OHIO...CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ087-WVZ005-006-013-024>026-022115-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-LAWRENCE OH-WAYNE-CABELL-LINCOLN-
MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-
511 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND WESTERN WEST
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

OHZ086-WVZ007-014-015-022115-
GALLIA-MASON-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-
511 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 446 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA AND WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

WVZ028-022115-
BRAXTON-
511 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
753 PM EDT SUN JUL 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0731 PM     TSTM WND GST     JUNCTION CITY           39.72N  82.30W
07/01/2012  M58 MPH          PERRY              OH   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1200001

WOODRUM