Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
333 AM EDT SUN AUG 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE
BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT... THEN OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 333 AM SUNDAY...

UPDATE... BASED ON RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS... WE WILL SPEED UP
THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS TO MID MORNING IN THE SW-W
PIEDMONT... THEN LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ELSEWHERE. NO OTHER
CHANGES.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREAT
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. QPF OF 0.50 TO 1.5 INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT
(LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED).

THE LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE A COUPLE OF WAVES THAT
WILL AFFECT OUR REGION TODAY. THE FIRST WAS LIFTING NE THROUGH
WESTERN NC AT THE MOMENT. THERE WAS A CLUSTER/BAND OF CONVECTION
MOVING NE THROUGH THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS AND NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURES. WE CURRENTLY HAVE OUR HIGHEST POP
THERE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A COUPLE OF THE STORMS HAVE BECOME
STRONG OVER ROWAN/DAVIDSON THIS MORNING WITH 52 DBZ REFLECTIVITY
EXHIBITED UP TO TO 21K FEET. STORM TOPS WERE ON THE ORDER OF 30-35K.
GOOD THING... THESE STORMS WERE DEVELOPING JUST ON THE STABLE/NORTH
SIDE OF THE NEARLY STATIONARY LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NC. THESE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BECOME
SEVERE AS THEY LIFT NNE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT THROUGH
SUNRISE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED.

THE SECOND AND MAIN MID-UPPER LEVEL WAVE WAS LOCATED OVER NORTH
GEORGIA AT THE MOMENT. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO LIFT NE ACROSS OUR
REGION LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AGAIN SPREAD/DEVELOP NE ACROSS WESTERN
AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES.

THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO WAVES OF SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD STABILIZE
THE AREAS THAT GET THE HEAVY RAIN IN THE W-N PIEDMONT... REINFORCE
THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH INTO
THE SE PIEDMONT THIS MORNING... IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING WAVE.

TIMING MAY BE A BIT EARLY FOR PEAK HEATING. NONETHELESS... AT LEAST
SPOTTY HEATING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL OCCUR ALONG AND SE OF THE
BOUNDARY THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS HEATING WILL
COMBINE WITH THE LOWER 70S DEW POINTS TO PRODUCE AT MLCAPES NEAR
1500 J/KG. IN ADDITION... WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE WITH HEIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR STORM ORGANIZATION.

THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM NEAR THE BOUNDARY MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS AND MAY ALSO EXHIBIT ROTATION DUE TO THE
ENHANCED OW LEVEL SHEAR NEAR THE BOUNDARY. WEAK SUPERCELLS AND EVEN
A BRIEF TORNADO (PER MENTIONED IN EARLIER SHIFTS APPEARS POSSIBLE).

BOTTOM LINE... A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY. FIRST IN THE NW THIS MORNING... THEN ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
SC THIS MORNING... THEN TRACKS NE ALONG THE BOUNDARY... NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/SCATTERED STORMS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL ENHANCE THE
BOUNDARY. WE WILL CARRY CATEGORICAL POP W-N PIEDMONT.

TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE PIEDMONT TRIAD REGION... SURFACE
HEATING WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WAVE
LATE IN THE MORNING SHOULD DESTABILIZE THE REGION. NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
MAIN RAIN SHIELD/ALONG THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY... THEN OVERSPREAD THE
REGION FROM THE SW LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WE WILL CARRY LIKELY
POP IN THE EAST AND SOUTH.

ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS AND A BRIEF WEAK TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STORMS IN THE EAST AND SOUTH LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
QPF OF 0.5 TO 1.5 EXPECTED. LOCALLY 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGHS
78-86.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS WILL TAPER OFF AS THE WAVE PASSES LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR
70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SATURDAY...

ANOTHER MID-UPPER WAVE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION LATE
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WE WILL HAVE A LULL IN THE RAIN CHANCES
MONDAY MORNING... THEN INCREASING AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. MONDAY AFTERNOON... FORECAST MLCAPES ARE ONLY ON THE ORDER OF
500-1000 J/KG WITH HIGHS 80-85. THIS IS MORE STABLE THAN IN PREVIOUS
RUNS... AND LIKELY DUE TO THE STABILITY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE
WAVE TODAY/TONIGHT. WE WILL CARRY PARTLY SUNNY SKIES MONDAY. ONLY A
20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS
80-85. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
65-70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 30O AM...

BROAD TROUGH OVER TENNESSEE TUESDAY MORNING WILL REACH THE
APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY MORNING... THEN ONLY PROGRESS TO THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AN EASTWARD MOVING SHORT WAVE NORTH
OF MINNESOTA THURSDAY NIGHT WILL KICK THE TROUGH OVER NORTH CAROLINA
OFFSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES NORTH
CAROLINA SATURDAY.

A STRONGER LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
TUESDAY... EAST OF THE 850 MILLIBAR TROUGH... WILL COUPLE WITH THE
BEST INSTABILITY TO PROVIDE THE BEST RAIN CHANCES SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIRTY PERCENT NORTHWEST TO 50 PERCENT EAST. POTENTIAL
ENERGY VERTICALLY THIN AND RELATIVELY LOW... FOR A MINIMAL SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. A THIRD TO ONE HALF INCH RAINFALL EAST TAPERING TO
LESS THAN ONE TEN INCH NORTHWEST.

THE 850 MILLIBAR WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT... AND
CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH TOWARD MIDNIGHT... ENDING WELL BEFORE
DAWN. THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT DRYS BEHIND THE 850 MILLIBAR TROUGH...
WHICH ALTHOUGH WEAKER THAN WEDNESDAY... SHOULD STILL BE A MINOR
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IN THE EAST. DUE TO MINIMAL POTENTIAL ENERGY
ALOFT... WILL LEAVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES AT SLIGHT...
THOUGH SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE SOUTHEAST.

THE WIND FIELD BELOW 15000 FEET BECOMES QUITE WEAK FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS BROAD MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. RAIN CHANCES SLIGHT OR LESS... CONFINED
TO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW A WEAK WARMING TREND AS RAIN
CHANCES DIMINISH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 80S TUESDAY... OTHERWISE MID 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM SUNDAY...

GENERALLY VFR CIGS/VSBYS FORECAST OUTSIDE THE KINT/KGSO REGION
THROUGH NEAR 12Z TODAY... WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS DEVELOPING TOWARD
DAYBREAK. MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
KINT/KGSO AREAS 07Z-09Z... THEN LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING.

LOW STRATUS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO MVFR TO VFR CIGS BY 16Z-18Z... WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

LIFR TO IFR CIGS WITH MVFR TO IFR VSBYS TONIGHT. IMPROVING TO MVFR
CIGS BY NOON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK... AT THIS TIME...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NWD TUESDAY-THURSDAY.
THIS SUGGESTS A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT (IE FEWER SHOWERS AND T-STORMS)
DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...BADGETT

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
947 AM EDT SUN AUG 19 2012

NCZ084>086-191445-
HOKE-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-
947 AM EDT SUN AUG 19 2012

...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS SCOTLAND...RICHMOND AND
HOKE COUNTIES THROUGH 1045 AM EDT...

AT 948 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GIBSON...OR ABOUT OVER
BENNETTSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...GIBSON...LAUREL HILL...
LAURINBURG...EAST LAURINBURG...WAGRAM.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PEA SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH WILL CAUSE MINOR
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS INCLUDING DITCHES...CREEKS...ROADWAYS AND
AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. MOTORISTS SHOULD ALSO REDUCE DRIVING SPEEDS TO AVOID
HYDROPLANING.

&&

LAT...LON 3463 7946 3480 7968 3481 7992 3490 7985
      3501 7990 3505 7988 3512 7993 3508 8000
      3514 8008 3518 7968 3513 7958 3506 7957
      3504 7946 3521 7923 3517 7910 3505 7909
      3496 7903 3483 7919 3484 7934 3477 7933
TIME...MOT...LOC 1348Z 237DEG 20KT 3471 7965

ELLIS

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