Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
343 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NC THIS EVENING. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL OTHERWISE
DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE NORTHWEST AND DIFFUSE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM...

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND EAST OF HIGHWAY ONE WITH
ISOLATED CONVECTION WEST. WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUING TO
MOVE EAST... EXITING THE AREA THIS EVENING... EXPECT CONVECTION TO
END RELATIVELY EARLY TONIGHT. SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT IN THE RURAL FOG
PRONE LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES 71 TO 75.

SOME MODELS INDICATING A WEAK TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF GEORGIA INTO THE
NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS FRIDAY... WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES.
WITH THIS FEATURE WEAKENING AND TO OUR WEST... AND WITH NO FORECAST
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT... WILL NOT PLACE ANY EMPHASIS ON THIS FEATURE
AS A RAIN MAKER... BUT ADMIT IT COULD BE CLOSE.

LOW LEVEL WINDS MORE SOLIDLY FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY AND COULD
ASSIST THE SEABREEZE INTO SAMPSON AND CUMBERLAND COUNTIES IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE BEST POTENTIAL ENERGY WILL BE LOCATED THERE AND
AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES ONE IN FOUR SOUTHEAST DROPPING TO ONE IN
SEVEN JUST WEST OF HIGHWAY ONE... AND APPROACHING ONE IN FOUR IN THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT WHERE MID LEVEL WINDS SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND MORE
CYCLONIC THAN TODAY. SEVERE THREAT MAINLY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST.
MINIMALLY LOWER 1000 TO 850 MILLIBAR THICKNESS FRIDAY THAN TODAY...
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO A TOUCH COOLER... MOSTLY LOWER 90S.

CONVECTION COULD LAST DEEP INTO THE NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE WEST
HALF WHERE WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL SUSTAIN CYCLONIC WINDS AT
THAT LEVEL FOR A RISK OF ELEVATED CONVECTION. AN STRONGER THAN USUAL
SURFACE INVERSION WILL ALLOW A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET TO DEVELOP... ALSO
AIDING THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AFTER DARK.

SOME STRATUS AND FOG LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES UP A
TOUCH... WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND EAST OF HIGHWAY ONE WITH
ISOLATED CONVECTION WEST. WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUING TO
MOVE EAST... EXITING THE AREA THIS EVENING... EXPECT CONVECTION TO
END RELATIVELY EARLY TONIGHT. SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT IN THE RURAL FOG
PRONE LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES 71 TO 75.

SOME MODELS INDICATING A WEAK TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF GEORGIA INTO THE
NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS FRIDAY... WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES.
WITH THIS FEATURE WEAKENING AND TO OUR WEST... AND WITH NO FORECAST
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT... WILL NOT PLACE ANY EMPHASIS ON THIS FEATURE
AS A RAIN MAKER... BUT ADMIT IT COULD BE CLOSE.

LOW LEVEL WINDS MORE SOLIDLY FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY AND COULD
ASSIST THE SEABREEZE INTO SAMPSON AND CUMBERLAND COUNTIES IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE BEST POTENTIAL ENERGY WILL BE LOCATED THERE AND
AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES ONE IN FOUR SOUTHEAST DROPPING TO ONE IN
SEVEN JUST WEST OF HIGHWAY ONE... AND APPROACHING ONE IN FOUR IN THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT WHERE MID LEVEL WINDS SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND MORE
CYCLONIC THAN TODAY. SEVERE THREAT MAINLY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST.
MINIMALLY LOWER 1000 TO 850 MILLIBAR THICKNESS FRIDAY THAN TODAY...
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO A TOUCH COOLER... MOSTLY LOWER 90S.

CONVECTION COULD LAST DEEP INTO THE NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE WEST
HALF WHERE WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL SUSTAIN CYCLONIC WINDS AT
THAT LEVEL FOR A RISK OF ELEVATED CONVECTION. AN STRONGER THAN USUAL
SURFACE INVERSION WILL ALLOW A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET TO DEVELOP... ALSO
AIDING THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AFTER DARK.

SOME STRATUS AND FOG LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES UP A
TOUCH... WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...

A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOST EVIDENT AT H7 WAS ANALYZED OVER THE MO
VALLEY AT 12Z/2ND...AND THIS FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED LIFT AND MOIST
AXIS IS FORECAST TO DRIFT AND DEAMPLIFY INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS BY SATURDAY. LITTLE FURTHER EASTWARD PROGRESS IS
EXPECTED...HOWEVER... OWING TO STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS SUCH...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
MAXIMIZED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PIEDMONT SAT...IN CLOSEST
PROXIMITY TO THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...WITH JUST ISOLATED CONVECTION
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE...A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
ALOFT WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT
LAKES DURING THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL FORCE AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH FURTHER DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED H7 TROUGH...AND THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NORTHERN EXPECTED TO HOLD TO OUR NORTH...CENTRAL NC SHOULD BE
LARGELY DEVOID OF CONVECTION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED
ACTIVITY INVOF THE SEA BREEZE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL
PLAIN...ON SUN. NEAR CLIMO TEMPS WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF 90
FOR HIGHS...AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...

SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT PATTERN OVER CENTRAL NC...LONGWAVE TROUGHING
WILL AGAIN BECOME ESTABLISHED INVOF THE APPALACHIANS FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEK. NUMEROUS HARD TO TIME SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE FLOW AND
A PERSISTENT PIEDMONT TROUGH/CONVERGENCE AXIS BENEATH THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT...WILL FAVOR AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE AND DIURNALLY-MAXIMIZED
CHANCES OF WEAKLY-SHEARED PULSE CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...PARTICULARLY MON-TUE WHEN A DIFFUSING FRONTAL ZONE/OUTFLOW
FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION NOTED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION WILL
MAKE THE CLOSEST APPROACH INTO OR JUST NW OF CENTRAL NC. LOWER
HEIGHTS WITHIN THE TROUGH ALOFT...AND AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION AND
ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER...SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE
- WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 90 FOR HIGHS...AND GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER-MIDDLE 70S FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD:

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT THE AREA TO THE EAST THIS
EVENING. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO END DURING THE EVENING.
PREDOMINATELY MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH POSSIBLY IFR RESTRICTIONS AT KRWI.

AFTERNOON STORMS AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
STORMS ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
411 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

NCZ007>010-021>025-038>041-073>077-083>086-088-031115-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-
DURHAM-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-
HARNETT-ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-
411 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND
STRONG...TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ011-026>028-042-043-078-089-031115-
HALIFAX-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-WAYNE-SAMPSON-
411 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MWS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
517 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

NCZ040-075-076-022215-
CHATHAM-LEE-MOORE-
517 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN MOORE...LEE AND
CHATHAM COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM EDT...

AT 516 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM GOLDSTON TO CARTHAGE...OR
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF SANFORD TO
CARTHAGE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS
INCLUDE...CAMERON...CUMNOCK...TRAMWAY... GUM
SPRINGS.....SANFORD...AND GOLDSTON.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PENNY SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH.
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

&&

LAT...LON 3566 7936 3578 7897 3541 7908 3533 7916
      3527 7947
TIME...MOT...LOC 2116Z 241DEG 11KT 3559 7927 3536 7936

77

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
533 PM EDT THU AUG 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     HAIL             1 ENE HOFFMAN           35.04N  79.53W
08/02/2012  E1.00 INCH       RICHMOND           NC   PUBLIC

            QUARTER TO GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL... IN ADDITION TO STRONG
            WINDS THAT BLEW SIGNS DOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1200815

NP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
545 PM EDT THU AUG 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SSW BONNIE DOONE      35.08N  78.97W
08/02/2012                   CUMBERLAND         NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FAYETTEVILLE PD RECEIVED REPORT OF FLOODING ON YADKIN
            RD

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1200816

TDH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
547 PM EDT THU AUG 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 WSW BONNIE DOONE      35.09N  78.98W
08/02/2012                   CUMBERLAND         NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FAYETTEVILLE PD RECIEVED REPORT OF FLOODING ON SANTA FE
            RD

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1200817

TDH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
548 PM EDT THU AUG 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 NW HOPE MILLS         35.02N  79.00W
08/02/2012                   CUMBERLAND         NC   911 CALL CENTER

            CUMBERLAND CO 911 RECEIVED REPORT OF FLOODING AT
            STRICKLAND BRIDGE RD AND GRAHAM RD

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1200818

TDH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
549 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

NCZ084-085-022245-
RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-
549 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS SCOTLAND AND RICHMOND
COUNTIES THROUGH 645 PM EDT...

AT 549 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER
DOBBINS HEIGHTS...OR ABOUT OVER ROCKINGHAM...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5
MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE DOBBINS HEIGHTS...
HAMLET.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PEA SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.

&&

LAT...LON 3480 7968 3480 7973 3493 7984 3505 7968
      3490 7935 3489 7935 3475 7962
TIME...MOT...LOC 2149Z 318DEG 3KT 3492 7968

14