Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
343 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NC THIS EVENING. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL OTHERWISE
DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE NORTHWEST AND DIFFUSE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM...

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND EAST OF HIGHWAY ONE WITH
ISOLATED CONVECTION WEST. WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUING TO
MOVE EAST... EXITING THE AREA THIS EVENING... EXPECT CONVECTION TO
END RELATIVELY EARLY TONIGHT. SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT IN THE RURAL FOG
PRONE LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES 71 TO 75.

SOME MODELS INDICATING A WEAK TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF GEORGIA INTO THE
NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS FRIDAY... WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES.
WITH THIS FEATURE WEAKENING AND TO OUR WEST... AND WITH NO FORECAST
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT... WILL NOT PLACE ANY EMPHASIS ON THIS FEATURE
AS A RAIN MAKER... BUT ADMIT IT COULD BE CLOSE.

LOW LEVEL WINDS MORE SOLIDLY FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY AND COULD
ASSIST THE SEABREEZE INTO SAMPSON AND CUMBERLAND COUNTIES IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE BEST POTENTIAL ENERGY WILL BE LOCATED THERE AND
AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES ONE IN FOUR SOUTHEAST DROPPING TO ONE IN
SEVEN JUST WEST OF HIGHWAY ONE... AND APPROACHING ONE IN FOUR IN THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT WHERE MID LEVEL WINDS SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND MORE
CYCLONIC THAN TODAY. SEVERE THREAT MAINLY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST.
MINIMALLY LOWER 1000 TO 850 MILLIBAR THICKNESS FRIDAY THAN TODAY...
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO A TOUCH COOLER... MOSTLY LOWER 90S.

CONVECTION COULD LAST DEEP INTO THE NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE WEST
HALF WHERE WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL SUSTAIN CYCLONIC WINDS AT
THAT LEVEL FOR A RISK OF ELEVATED CONVECTION. AN STRONGER THAN USUAL
SURFACE INVERSION WILL ALLOW A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET TO DEVELOP... ALSO
AIDING THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AFTER DARK.

SOME STRATUS AND FOG LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES UP A
TOUCH... WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND EAST OF HIGHWAY ONE WITH
ISOLATED CONVECTION WEST. WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUING TO
MOVE EAST... EXITING THE AREA THIS EVENING... EXPECT CONVECTION TO
END RELATIVELY EARLY TONIGHT. SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT IN THE RURAL FOG
PRONE LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES 71 TO 75.

SOME MODELS INDICATING A WEAK TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF GEORGIA INTO THE
NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS FRIDAY... WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES.
WITH THIS FEATURE WEAKENING AND TO OUR WEST... AND WITH NO FORECAST
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT... WILL NOT PLACE ANY EMPHASIS ON THIS FEATURE
AS A RAIN MAKER... BUT ADMIT IT COULD BE CLOSE.

LOW LEVEL WINDS MORE SOLIDLY FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY AND COULD
ASSIST THE SEABREEZE INTO SAMPSON AND CUMBERLAND COUNTIES IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE BEST POTENTIAL ENERGY WILL BE LOCATED THERE AND
AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES ONE IN FOUR SOUTHEAST DROPPING TO ONE IN
SEVEN JUST WEST OF HIGHWAY ONE... AND APPROACHING ONE IN FOUR IN THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT WHERE MID LEVEL WINDS SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND MORE
CYCLONIC THAN TODAY. SEVERE THREAT MAINLY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST.
MINIMALLY LOWER 1000 TO 850 MILLIBAR THICKNESS FRIDAY THAN TODAY...
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO A TOUCH COOLER... MOSTLY LOWER 90S.

CONVECTION COULD LAST DEEP INTO THE NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE WEST
HALF WHERE WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL SUSTAIN CYCLONIC WINDS AT
THAT LEVEL FOR A RISK OF ELEVATED CONVECTION. AN STRONGER THAN USUAL
SURFACE INVERSION WILL ALLOW A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET TO DEVELOP... ALSO
AIDING THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AFTER DARK.

SOME STRATUS AND FOG LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES UP A
TOUCH... WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...

A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOST EVIDENT AT H7 WAS ANALYZED OVER THE MO
VALLEY AT 12Z/2ND...AND THIS FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED LIFT AND MOIST
AXIS IS FORECAST TO DRIFT AND DEAMPLIFY INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS BY SATURDAY. LITTLE FURTHER EASTWARD PROGRESS IS
EXPECTED...HOWEVER... OWING TO STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS SUCH...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
MAXIMIZED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PIEDMONT SAT...IN CLOSEST
PROXIMITY TO THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...WITH JUST ISOLATED CONVECTION
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE...A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
ALOFT WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT
LAKES DURING THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL FORCE AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH FURTHER DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED H7 TROUGH...AND THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NORTHERN EXPECTED TO HOLD TO OUR NORTH...CENTRAL NC SHOULD BE
LARGELY DEVOID OF CONVECTION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED
ACTIVITY INVOF THE SEA BREEZE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL
PLAIN...ON SUN. NEAR CLIMO TEMPS WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF 90
FOR HIGHS...AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...

SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT PATTERN OVER CENTRAL NC...LONGWAVE TROUGHING
WILL AGAIN BECOME ESTABLISHED INVOF THE APPALACHIANS FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEK. NUMEROUS HARD TO TIME SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE FLOW AND
A PERSISTENT PIEDMONT TROUGH/CONVERGENCE AXIS BENEATH THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT...WILL FAVOR AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE AND DIURNALLY-MAXIMIZED
CHANCES OF WEAKLY-SHEARED PULSE CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...PARTICULARLY MON-TUE WHEN A DIFFUSING FRONTAL ZONE/OUTFLOW
FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION NOTED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION WILL
MAKE THE CLOSEST APPROACH INTO OR JUST NW OF CENTRAL NC. LOWER
HEIGHTS WITHIN THE TROUGH ALOFT...AND AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION AND
ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER...SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE
- WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 90 FOR HIGHS...AND GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER-MIDDLE 70S FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD:

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT THE AREA TO THE EAST THIS
EVENING. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO END DURING THE EVENING.
PREDOMINATELY MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH POSSIBLY IFR RESTRICTIONS AT KRWI.

AFTERNOON STORMS AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
STORMS ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
411 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

NCZ007>010-021>025-038>041-073>077-083>086-088-031115-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-
DURHAM-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-
HARNETT-ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-
411 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND
STRONG...TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ011-026>028-042-043-078-089-031115-
HALIFAX-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-WAYNE-SAMPSON-
411 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MWS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
406 PM EDT THU AUG 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0243 PM     HAIL             3 WSW SPRING HOPE       35.93N  78.15W
08/02/2012  E1.00 INCH       NASH               NC   PUBLIC

            HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS FELL FOR APPROX 10 MIN.
            TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1200811

KC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
419 PM EDT THU AUG 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     HAIL             4 SW FAYETTEVILLE       35.04N  78.96W
08/02/2012  E1.00 INCH       CUMBERLAND         NC   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL ON WATAUGA RD IN FAYETTEVILLE. LASTED
            APPROX 10 MIN. TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1200812

KC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
426 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

NCZ040-041-022130-
CHATHAM-WAKE-
426 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN WAKE AND EASTERN
CHATHAM COUNTIES THROUGH 530 PM EDT...

AT 425 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM CARPENTER TO 5 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF NEW HILL...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES
NORTHWEST OF CARY TO 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PITTSBORO...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...CARPENTER...NEW
HILL...AND...CARPENTER... JORDAN LAKE.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PENNY SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH.
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH WILL CAUSE MINOR
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS INCLUDING DITCHES...CREEKS...ROADWAYS AND
AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. MOTORISTS SHOULD ALSO REDUCE DRIVING SPEEDS TO AVOID
HYDROPLANING.

&&

LAT...LON 3586 7883 3565 7889 3562 7910 3562 7911
      3563 7912 3586 7907
TIME...MOT...LOC 2025Z 236DEG 7KT 3583 7894 3564 7898

77

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
500 PM EDT THU AUG 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0152 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SSW KENLY             35.58N  78.13W
08/02/2012                   JOHNSTON           NC   PUBLIC

            SHUTTERS BLOWN OFF OF HOME ON PRINCETON-KENLY RD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1200813

MWS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
512 PM EDT THU AUG 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     HAIL             1 SSE GLENDON           35.46N  79.52W
08/02/2012  E1.00 INCH       MOORE              NC   911 CALL CENTER

            PUBLIC REPORT...RELAYED VIA COUNTY 911 CENTER...OF
            QUARTER-SIZED HAIL IN THE HIGH FALLS AREA.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1200814

MWS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
517 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

NCZ040-075-076-022215-
CHATHAM-LEE-MOORE-
517 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN MOORE...LEE AND
CHATHAM COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM EDT...

AT 516 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM GOLDSTON TO CARTHAGE...OR
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF SANFORD TO
CARTHAGE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS
INCLUDE...CAMERON...CUMNOCK...TRAMWAY... GUM
SPRINGS.....SANFORD...AND GOLDSTON.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PENNY SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH.
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

&&

LAT...LON 3566 7936 3578 7897 3541 7908 3533 7916
      3527 7947
TIME...MOT...LOC 2116Z 241DEG 11KT 3559 7927 3536 7936

77