Special Weather Statement, NWS Phoenix, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
920 PM MST MON JUL 30 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
SUBSTANTIAL MONSOON MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY
WEATHER DISTURBANCE NEAR THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER WILL LEAD TO
SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY...
PARTICULARLY OVER FAR WESTERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA WHERE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAINFALL
CHANCES WILL DECREASE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION. BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED EARLY THIS WEEK...BEFORE MODERATING TO NEAR AND SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR WEATHER IN OUR CWA CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE
WESTERN ZONES...PRIMARILY THE SERN CA ZONES. UPPER LOW THAT STARTED
AS AN INVERTED TROF OVER NWRN MEXICO HAS MOVED NORTHWESTWARD INTO
SERN CA AND SWRN AZ...WITH THE LOW CENTER BETWEEN IMPERIAL AND YUMA.
VERY HIGH MOISTURE VALUES HAVE ADVECTED INTO THE AREAS WEST OF
MARICOPA COUNTY...WITH PWAT VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. WITH SUCH
A HIGH MOISTURE PROFILE...CAPE HAS BEEN MODEST...AND THE STORMS THAT
HAVE DEVELOPED HAVE PRIMARILY BEEN HEAVY PRECIP PRODUCERS.
SIGNIFICANT RAINS HAVE BEEN GENERATED OVER MUCH OF IMPERIAL AND
RIVERSIDE COUNTIES THIS EVENING...WITH FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING
ACROSS MUCH OF IMPERIAL COUNTY. EARLIER THIS EVENING A MASSIVE STORM
COMPLEX FORMED OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF IMPERIAL
COUNTY...MAINLY WEST OF EL CENTRO...AND RADAR INDICATED 2 TO 4
INCHES OF RAIN WITH THE SYSTEM. FLOODING HAS OCCURRED WEST OF SEELEY
AND AN AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 1030 PM. AS OF 9 PM
MOST OF THE CONVECTION HAS ENDED...HOWEVER SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY AND
THERE ARE LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH HIGH
MOISTURE VALUES TO PERSIST TONIGHT AND THE UPPER LOW STILL IN THE
AREA...WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS REST OF THE NIGHT OVER
MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.

NOT MUCH HAS OCCURRED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ TODAY...CONVECTION
YESTERDAY HELPED TO WORK OVER AND STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND
SERN ARIZONA HAS ALSO BEEN WORKED OVER WITH LITTLE STORM DEVELOPMENT
NOTED THERE TODAY. HIGH AT PHOENIX WAS JUST 100 TODAY...5 DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL. 00Z PSR RAOB SHOWED THAT THE AIRMASS MODIFIED
QUITE A BIT DURING THE DAY WITH PWAT DOWN TO 1.6 INCHES...WARMING
ALOFT...AND DRYING OF THE LOWER LEVELS. CAPE IS MINIMAL WITH QUITE A
BIT OF CIN IN THE PROFILE. THUS...MOSTLY FLAT CU WAS OBSERVED OVER
OUR CENTRAL DESERTS TODAY. THERE IS ONE FEATURE OF CONCERN...WIND
FIELDS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ ARE MUCH STRONGER THAN THEY ARE OUT
WEST...WITH MEAN 300-700MB WIND AROUND 30KT FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. THE STRONG WINDS WILL ALLOW ANY STORMS THAT FORM TO
BECOME MUCH MORE ORGANIZED AND PERSISTENT THAN THEY OTHERWISE
WOULD...AND A LOOK AT IR IMAGERY AT 9 PM SHOWED AN ORGANIZED CLUSTER
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SERN AZ...MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST. THIS
CLUSTER APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER INVERTED TROF
APPROACHING FROM SOUTHWEST MEXICO. OUTFLOW FROM THIS COMPLEX MAY GET
INTO THE CENTRAL DESERTS LATER TONIGHT AND IT COULD CAUSE NEW STORMS
TO FORM OVER OUR AREA. AGAIN...WITH THE STRONG WIND FIELDS WE MAY
YET SEE ORGANIZED CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING OR EVEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS IS SOMETHING TO WATCH CLOSELY. UPPED OUR POPS OVER
THE CENTRAL DESERTS TO 20 PERCENT FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT JUST IN
CASE. OTHERWISE...FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED FOR CURRENT WEATHER
TRENDS.

WILL BE CANCELING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES.
CONVECTION HAS PRETTY MUCH ENDED AND THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD FLASH
FLOODING IS PRETTY MUCH OVER. THIS FITS WELL WITH OUR SURROUNDING
OFFICES WHO LET THEIR WATCH EXPIRE.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS EXPECTED...MOST ACTIVE WEATHER IS OCCURRING OVER FAR SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND FAR WESTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE MOISTURE
RIDGE (PRECIPITABLE WATER AT OR JUST ABOVE 2 INCHES) COEXISTS WITH
DECENT INSTABILITY AND LOCATION OF QUASI STATIONARY MID-LEVEL
WEATHER DISTURBANCE. CONSEQUENTLY...SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED...AND WERE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. SPC MESOANALYSIS
INDICATES HIGHEST PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL BE ALONG AND NEAR THE
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...AND
RADAR/SATELLITE ESTIMATES INDICATE 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL IN
LESS THAN AN HOUR WITH THE HEAVIEST STORMS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST WATCHES/STATEMENTS/ADVISORIES/WARNINGS REGARDING
THIS SITUATION.

WEATHER IS MUCH QUIETER OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...
WHERE DRIER AIR IS ADVECTING WEST FROM NEW MEXICO...STRONGER WIND
FIELD EXISTS...AND UPPER SUPPORT IS LACKING. NEAREST UPSTREAM
WEATHER DISTURBANCE...WELL DEFINED IN BOTH WV IMAGERY AND PV
FIELDS...WAS MOVING WEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG
SOUTHERN PLAINS ANTICYCLONE...AND IT HAD HELPED TRIGGER
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN CHIHUAHUA AND FAR EASTERN SONORA. STORMS
WILL INCREASE OVER SONORA LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING...AND IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT OUTFLOW FROM THOSE STORMS COULD TRIGGER SOME STORMS TO
OUR SOUTH THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...WITH OUTFLOW FROM THOSE STORMS
PUSHING NORTH ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ LATER TONIGHT. BOTTOM
LINE...WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ
OVERNIGHT...WITH BEST CHANCE IN THE LATE EVENING. WILL NEED TO KEEP
A CLOSE EYE ON THIS SITUATION.

UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON
WILL MOVE EVER SO SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND REMAIN A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. AS SUCH...HIGHEST
POP TUESDAY WILL AGAIN BE OUT WEST...AND PROBABLY TO THE NORTHWEST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. FORECAST FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WAS NOT
CHANGED MUCH FROM WHAT WAS INHERITED...IN PART DUE TO THE FACT THAT
THIS MORNING/S NUMERICAL GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUPPORTED INHERITED FCST
PACKAGE FOR THIS PERIOD. SO...SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE REMNANT QUASI-STATIONARY CIRCULATION CENTER SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SPIN OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY...WITH
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES POTENTIALLY BETTER FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DEEP
CONVECTION. VARIOUS MESOSCALE PROCESSES COULD STILL CONTAMINATE THE
ATMOSPHERE...SO HAVE ONLY ADVERTISED HIGHER END CHANCE POPS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCES APPEARING TO LIE INTO
PARTS OF NORTHWEST ARIZONA. ALSO HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF
TRIMMING POPS THROUGH THE EASTERN CWA WITH STRONGER RIDGING AND
DRIER AIR ADVECTING WESTWARD...THOUGH ANOTHER WAVE CURRENTLY SOUTH
OF BROWNSVILLE TX COULD STREAM NORTH ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CNTRL MEXICO AND INVIGORATE CONVECTION THROUGH FAR SERN
ARIZONA...MOVING TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA.

THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BIFURCATED
RIDGE WITH THE HIGHEST H5 HEIGHTS OVER TEXAS ATTEMPTING TO
RETROGRADE INTO THE OLD HEIGHT WEAKNESS/INVERTED TROUGH OVER SRN
CALIFORNIA/NEVADA. ECMWF SOLUTIONS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN HOLDING THE
WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELD AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE THROUGH THE
REGION AGAINST THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE RETROGRESSION. THERE IS
LIMITED TO ALMOST NO ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FROM GFS AND CMC MEMBERS FOR
THIS TYPE OF OUTCOME...WITH CONSENSUS OUTPUT INDICATING STRONGER
RIDGING AND DRYING OVERTAKING THE REGION. THEREFORE...HAVE CONTINUED
TO TREND POPS DOWNWARD INTO THE END OF THE WEEK...WHILE PUSHING
TEMPERATURES UP TO AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

VERY QUIET CONVECTIVELY THIS EVENING...AND ATTM DO NOT EXPECT
CONVECTION FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...JUST SOME SCATTERED MID/HI
LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS. HOWEVER...WE ARE WATCHING A CLUSTER OF STORMS
WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST...TO THE SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON. STORMS ARE
RATHER ORGANIZED AND MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST. WE MAY SEE GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL DESERTS LATER
THIS EVENING...OR EVEN AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT
ACTUAL THUNDERSTORMS COULD EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA OR DEVELOP
AS THE OUTFLOW WINDS MOVE THROUGH. CONFIDENCE IN THIS NOT HIGH AND
WILL NOT MENTION STORMS IN THE UPCOMING 06Z TAF PACKAGE. FOR
TOMORROW...STORM THREATS STILL ARE RATHER LOW...MAY SEE AN ISOLATED
STORM IN THE DESERTS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING BUT WILL
NOT MAKE MENTION OF IT IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE
NEXT 24 HOURS AND FAVOR DIURNAL PATTERNS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

WEAK UPPER LOW AND CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE AREA AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. CONVECTION HAS MOSTLY ENDED AS
OF 9 PM...BUT THERE WILL BE A LINGERING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR A
THUNDERSTORM REST OF TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WILL KEEP VCSH IN THE
TAFS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...ALONG WITH BROKEN MID/HI CLOUD DECKS.
SHOULD STORMS REDEVELOP WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC...OTHERWISE
THEY WILL BE LIGHT AND FAVOR THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
LOW GRADE MONSOON CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LIMITED TO HIGHER TERRAIN PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED. HUMIDITIES WILL TREND DOWNWARD
THURSDAY WITH ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS THEREAFTER WITH OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY REMAINING GOOD. WINDS WILL FAVOR FAMILIAR WARM SEASON
DIURNAL PATTERNS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB/DG
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MO
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...AJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
316 PM MST MON JUL 30 2012

AZZ024-311300-
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY/TONTO NATIONAL FOREST FOOTHILLS-
316 PM MST MON JUL 30 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

EXPECT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. ANY STORM THAT FORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY
TRENDING DOWNWARD BY THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...STORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE PRIMARILY OVER HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

AZZ022-023-027-028-311300-
NORTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY-GREATER PHOENIX AREA-
SOUTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY-NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY-
316 PM MST MON JUL 30 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

EXPECT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDESTORMS COULD INCREASE LATE THIS
EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS RATHER LOW. ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT FORMS MAY PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY
WINDS...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH PRIMARILY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. ANY STORMS WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...STRONG WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

AZZ020-021-025-026-CAZ030>033-311300-
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AZ-WEST CENTRAL DESERTS-
YUMA/MARTINEZ LAKE AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST DESERTS-
JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK-LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY CA-
RIVERSIDE COUNTY/EASTERN DESERTS-IMPERIAL COUNTY-
316 PM MST MON JUL 30 2012 /316 PM PDT MON JUL 30 2012/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST /MIDNIGHT PDT/
TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA...EXTREME WEST-CENTRAL ARIZONA...SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...WEST-
CENTRAL ARIZONA...EXTREME SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. STRONGEST STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH FLOODING OF WASHES AND ROADWAYS A GOOD BET...AS
WELL AS LIGHTNING AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH PRIMARILY
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ANY STORMS WILL
HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

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