Flash Flood Watch 4, NWS Phoenix, AZ

495 
WGUS65 KPSR 311818
FFAPSR

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1118 AM MST TUE JUL 31 2012

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING...

.RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH PER HOUR AND REPEATED HEAVY
SHOWERS MAY LEAD TO FLOODING OF ROADWAYS AND WASHES TODAY.
NOTE...THIS ISSUANCE IS TO EXPAND THE WATCH AREA AND EXTEND IN TIME
BY A COUPLE OF HOURS...EXCEPT FOR MOST OF IMPERIAL COUNTY.

AZZ020-021-025-026-CAZ031-010200-
/O.EXB.KPSR.FF.A.0004.000000T0000Z-120801T0200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AZ-WEST CENTRAL DESERTS-
YUMA/MARTINEZ LAKE AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST DESERTS-
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY CA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...EHRENBERG...PARKER...QUARTZSITE...SALOME...
FORTUNA FOOTHILLS...YUMA...TACNA...WELLTON...BLYTHE
1118 AM MST TUE JUL 31 2012 /1118 AM PDT TUE JUL 31 2012/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MST /7 PM PDT/ THIS
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PHOENIX HAS EXPANDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF ARIZONA AND EXTREME 
  SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN 
  ARIZONA...LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AZ...SOUTHWEST DESERTS...
  WEST CENTRAL DESERTS AND YUMA/MARTINEZ LAKE AND VICINITY. IN 
  EXTREME SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY CA.

* UNTIL 7 PM MST /7 PM PDT/ THIS EVENING

* A SLOW MOVING WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRINGING NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF
  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH PARTS OF LA PAZ AND YUMA COUNTY
  INTO EARLY EVENING. RAINFALL RATES IN WELL IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH
  PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY THIS
  AFTERNOON. WESTERN LA PAZ AND NORTHERN YUMA COUNTIES WILL BE MOST
  LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING.

* HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO SUDDEN FLOODING OF
  ROADWAYS...WASHES...AND LOW LYING AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT FLOODING OF WASHES...CREEKS AND OTHER
DRAINAGE AREAS IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. IF YOU ARE IN THE
WATCH AREA...YOU SHOULD WATCH THE WEATHER AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
IMMEDIATE ACTION SHOULD HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING OCCUR OR A FLASH
FLOOD WARNING BE ISSUED.

&&

STAY UP-TO-DATE ON THE LATEST FORECASTS BY LISTENING TO WEATHER RADIO
ON THE PUBLIC SERVICE BAND. MORE DETAILED INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE
FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PHOENIX ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX


$$

CAZ030-032-010200-
/O.EXT.KPSR.FF.A.0004.000000T0000Z-120801T0200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK-RIVERSIDE COUNTY/EASTERN DESERTS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COTTONWOOD VISITOR CENTER...
CHIRIACO SUMMIT...DESERT CENTER
1118 AM PDT TUE JUL 31 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM PDT THIS EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHEAST 
  CALIFORNIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST 
  CALIFORNIA...RIVERSIDE COUNTY/EASTERN DESERTS. IN SOUTHEAST 
  CALIFORNIA...JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK.

* UNTIL 7 PM PDT THIS EVENING

* A SLOW MOVING WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRINGING NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF
  SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH PARTS OF
  RIVERSIDE COUNTY AND JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK LATER THIS MORNING
  AND AFTERNOON. RAINFALL RATES WELL IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH PER HOUR
  WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY THIS
  AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS NEAR CENTRAL RIVERSIDE COUNTY AND THROUGH
  JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE HEAVY
  RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING.

* HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO FLOODING OF ROADWAYS...WASHES...AND LOW
  LYING AREAS TO PARTS OF RIVERSIDE COUNTY AND JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL
  PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT FLOODING OF WASHES...CREEKS AND OTHER
DRAINAGE AREAS IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. IF YOU ARE IN THE
WATCH AREA...YOU SHOULD WATCH THE WEATHER AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
IMMEDIATE ACTION SHOULD HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING OCCUR OR A FLASH
FLOOD WARNING BE ISSUED.

&&

STAY UP-TO-DATE ON THE LATEST FORECASTS BY LISTENING TO WEATHER RADIO
ON THE PUBLIC SERVICE BAND. MORE DETAILED INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE
FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PHOENIX ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX


$$

CAZ033-010000-
/O.CON.KPSR.FF.A.0004.000000T0000Z-120801T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
IMPERIAL COUNTY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRAWLEY...CALEXICO...EL CENTRO
1118 AM PDT TUE JUL 31 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...INCLUDING THE 
  FOLLOWING AREA...IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...IMPERIAL COUNTY.

* UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON

* A SLOW MOVING WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
  THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPERIAL COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL RATES
  WELL IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
  HEAVIEST SHOWERS. SOME LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCED SEVERE FLOODING
  YESTERDAY MAY SEE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL AND WILL BE ESPECIALLY
  SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING AGAIN TODAY. 

* HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO FLOODING OF ROADWAYS...WASHES...AND LOW
  LYING AREAS TO PARTS OF IMPERIAL COUNTY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT FLOODING OF WASHES...CREEKS AND OTHER
DRAINAGE AREAS IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. IF YOU ARE IN THE
WATCH AREA...YOU SHOULD WATCH THE WEATHER AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
IMMEDIATE ACTION SHOULD HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING OCCUR OR A FLASH
FLOOD WARNING BE ISSUED.

&&

STAY UP-TO-DATE ON THE LATEST FORECASTS BY LISTENING TO WEATHER RADIO
ON THE PUBLIC SERVICE BAND. MORE DETAILED INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE
FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PHOENIX ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX


$$

208 
WGUS65 KPSR 010008
FFAPSR

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
508 PM MST TUE JUL 31 2012

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING...

CAZ033-010115-
/O.EXP.KPSR.FF.A.0004.000000T0000Z-120801T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
IMPERIAL COUNTY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRAWLEY...CALEXICO...EL CENTRO
508 PM PDT TUE JUL 31 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPIRED AT 5 PM...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
HAS EXPIRED. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS STOPPED OVER THE
COUNTY AND IT HAS NOT RAINED OVER THE AREA SINCE EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON. WATER WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO CANALS AND WASHES IN THE
AREA...AND STANDING WATER WILL PERSIST IN LOW-LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

STAY UP-TO-DATE ON THE LATEST FORECASTS BY LISTENING TO WEATHER RADIO
ON THE PUBLIC SERVICE BAND. MORE DETAILED INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE
FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PHOENIX ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

$$

AZZ020-021-025-026-CAZ030>032-010200-
/O.CON.KPSR.FF.A.0004.000000T0000Z-120801T0200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AZ-WEST CENTRAL DESERTS-
YUMA/MARTINEZ LAKE AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST DESERTS-
JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK-LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY CA-
RIVERSIDE COUNTY/EASTERN DESERTS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...EHRENBERG...PARKER...QUARTZSITE...SALOME...
FORTUNA FOOTHILLS...YUMA...TACNA...WELLTON...
COTTONWOOD VISITOR CENTER...BLYTHE...CHIRIACO SUMMIT...DESERT CENTER
508 PM MST TUE JUL 31 2012 /508 PM PDT TUE JUL 31 2012/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MST /7 PM PDT/ THIS
EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF ARIZONA AND CALIFORNIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  AREAS...IN ARIZONA...LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AZ...SOUTHWEST 
  DESERTS...WEST CENTRAL DESERTS AND YUMA/MARTINEZ LAKE AND 
  VICINITY. IN CALIFORNIA...JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK...LOWER 
  COLORADO RIVER VALLEY CA AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY/EASTERN DESERTS.

* UNTIL 7 PM MST /7 PM PDT/ THIS EVENING

* A SLOW MOVING WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRINGING NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF 
  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH PARTS OF LA PAZ AND YUMA COUNTY 
  INTO EARLY EVENING. RAINFALL RATES IN WELL IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH 
  PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY 
  THIS AFTERNOON. WESTERN LA PAZ AND NORTHERN YUMA COUNTIES WILL BE 
  MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. 

* HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO SUDDEN FLOODING OF ROADWAYS...WASHES...
  AND LOW LYING AREAS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT FLOODING OF WASHES...CREEKS AND OTHER
DRAINAGE AREAS IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. IF YOU ARE IN THE
WATCH AREA...YOU SHOULD WATCH THE WEATHER AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
IMMEDIATE ACTION SHOULD HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING OCCUR OR A FLASH
FLOOD WARNING BE ISSUED.

&&

STAY UP-TO-DATE ON THE LATEST FORECASTS BY LISTENING TO WEATHER RADIO
ON THE PUBLIC SERVICE BAND. MORE DETAILED INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE
FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PHOENIX ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

STAY UP-TO-DATE ON THE LATEST FORECASTS BY LISTENING TO WEATHER RADIO
ON THE PUBLIC SERVICE BAND. MORE DETAILED INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE
FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PHOENIX ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

$$

098 
WGUS65 KPSR 010207
FFAPSR

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
707 PM MST TUE JUL 31 2012


AZZ020-021-025-026-CAZ030>032-010315-
/O.EXP.KPSR.FF.A.0004.000000T0000Z-120801T0200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AZ-WEST CENTRAL DESERTS-
YUMA/MARTINEZ LAKE AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST DESERTS-
JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK-LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY CA-
RIVERSIDE COUNTY/EASTERN DESERTS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...EHRENBERG...PARKER...QUARTZSITE...SALOME...
FORTUNA FOOTHILLS...YUMA...TACNA...WELLTON...
COTTONWOOD VISITOR CENTER...BLYTHE...CHIRIACO SUMMIT...DESERT CENTER
707 PM MST TUE JUL 31 2012 /707 PM PDT TUE JUL 31 2012/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPIRED AT 7 PM...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF ARIZONA AND CALIFORNIA HAS
EXPIRED. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CEASED ACROSS THE
WATCH AREA...AND IT HAS NOT RAINED SINCE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.
WATER MAY CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO WASHES AND STREAMS IN THE AREA...AND
STANDING WATER WILL PERSIST IN LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

STAY UP-TO-DATE ON THE LATEST FORECASTS BY LISTENING TO WEATHER RADIO
ON THE PUBLIC SERVICE BAND. MORE DETAILED INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE
FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PHOENIX ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
920 PM MST MON JUL 30 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
SUBSTANTIAL MONSOON MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY
WEATHER DISTURBANCE NEAR THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER WILL LEAD TO
SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY...
PARTICULARLY OVER FAR WESTERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA WHERE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAINFALL
CHANCES WILL DECREASE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION. BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED EARLY THIS WEEK...BEFORE MODERATING TO NEAR AND SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR WEATHER IN OUR CWA CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE
WESTERN ZONES...PRIMARILY THE SERN CA ZONES. UPPER LOW THAT STARTED
AS AN INVERTED TROF OVER NWRN MEXICO HAS MOVED NORTHWESTWARD INTO
SERN CA AND SWRN AZ...WITH THE LOW CENTER BETWEEN IMPERIAL AND YUMA.
VERY HIGH MOISTURE VALUES HAVE ADVECTED INTO THE AREAS WEST OF
MARICOPA COUNTY...WITH PWAT VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. WITH SUCH
A HIGH MOISTURE PROFILE...CAPE HAS BEEN MODEST...AND THE STORMS THAT
HAVE DEVELOPED HAVE PRIMARILY BEEN HEAVY PRECIP PRODUCERS.
SIGNIFICANT RAINS HAVE BEEN GENERATED OVER MUCH OF IMPERIAL AND
RIVERSIDE COUNTIES THIS EVENING...WITH FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING
ACROSS MUCH OF IMPERIAL COUNTY. EARLIER THIS EVENING A MASSIVE STORM
COMPLEX FORMED OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF IMPERIAL
COUNTY...MAINLY WEST OF EL CENTRO...AND RADAR INDICATED 2 TO 4
INCHES OF RAIN WITH THE SYSTEM. FLOODING HAS OCCURRED WEST OF SEELEY
AND AN AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 1030 PM. AS OF 9 PM
MOST OF THE CONVECTION HAS ENDED...HOWEVER SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY AND
THERE ARE LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH HIGH
MOISTURE VALUES TO PERSIST TONIGHT AND THE UPPER LOW STILL IN THE
AREA...WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS REST OF THE NIGHT OVER
MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.

NOT MUCH HAS OCCURRED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ TODAY...CONVECTION
YESTERDAY HELPED TO WORK OVER AND STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND
SERN ARIZONA HAS ALSO BEEN WORKED OVER WITH LITTLE STORM DEVELOPMENT
NOTED THERE TODAY. HIGH AT PHOENIX WAS JUST 100 TODAY...5 DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL. 00Z PSR RAOB SHOWED THAT THE AIRMASS MODIFIED
QUITE A BIT DURING THE DAY WITH PWAT DOWN TO 1.6 INCHES...WARMING
ALOFT...AND DRYING OF THE LOWER LEVELS. CAPE IS MINIMAL WITH QUITE A
BIT OF CIN IN THE PROFILE. THUS...MOSTLY FLAT CU WAS OBSERVED OVER
OUR CENTRAL DESERTS TODAY. THERE IS ONE FEATURE OF CONCERN...WIND
FIELDS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ ARE MUCH STRONGER THAN THEY ARE OUT
WEST...WITH MEAN 300-700MB WIND AROUND 30KT FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. THE STRONG WINDS WILL ALLOW ANY STORMS THAT FORM TO
BECOME MUCH MORE ORGANIZED AND PERSISTENT THAN THEY OTHERWISE
WOULD...AND A LOOK AT IR IMAGERY AT 9 PM SHOWED AN ORGANIZED CLUSTER
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SERN AZ...MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST. THIS
CLUSTER APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER INVERTED TROF
APPROACHING FROM SOUTHWEST MEXICO. OUTFLOW FROM THIS COMPLEX MAY GET
INTO THE CENTRAL DESERTS LATER TONIGHT AND IT COULD CAUSE NEW STORMS
TO FORM OVER OUR AREA. AGAIN...WITH THE STRONG WIND FIELDS WE MAY
YET SEE ORGANIZED CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING OR EVEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS IS SOMETHING TO WATCH CLOSELY. UPPED OUR POPS OVER
THE CENTRAL DESERTS TO 20 PERCENT FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT JUST IN
CASE. OTHERWISE...FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED FOR CURRENT WEATHER
TRENDS.

WILL BE CANCELING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES.
CONVECTION HAS PRETTY MUCH ENDED AND THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD FLASH
FLOODING IS PRETTY MUCH OVER. THIS FITS WELL WITH OUR SURROUNDING
OFFICES WHO LET THEIR WATCH EXPIRE.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS EXPECTED...MOST ACTIVE WEATHER IS OCCURRING OVER FAR SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND FAR WESTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE MOISTURE
RIDGE (PRECIPITABLE WATER AT OR JUST ABOVE 2 INCHES) COEXISTS WITH
DECENT INSTABILITY AND LOCATION OF QUASI STATIONARY MID-LEVEL
WEATHER DISTURBANCE. CONSEQUENTLY...SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED...AND WERE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. SPC MESOANALYSIS
INDICATES HIGHEST PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL BE ALONG AND NEAR THE
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...AND
RADAR/SATELLITE ESTIMATES INDICATE 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL IN
LESS THAN AN HOUR WITH THE HEAVIEST STORMS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST WATCHES/STATEMENTS/ADVISORIES/WARNINGS REGARDING
THIS SITUATION.

WEATHER IS MUCH QUIETER OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...
WHERE DRIER AIR IS ADVECTING WEST FROM NEW MEXICO...STRONGER WIND
FIELD EXISTS...AND UPPER SUPPORT IS LACKING. NEAREST UPSTREAM
WEATHER DISTURBANCE...WELL DEFINED IN BOTH WV IMAGERY AND PV
FIELDS...WAS MOVING WEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG
SOUTHERN PLAINS ANTICYCLONE...AND IT HAD HELPED TRIGGER
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN CHIHUAHUA AND FAR EASTERN SONORA. STORMS
WILL INCREASE OVER SONORA LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING...AND IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT OUTFLOW FROM THOSE STORMS COULD TRIGGER SOME STORMS TO
OUR SOUTH THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...WITH OUTFLOW FROM THOSE STORMS
PUSHING NORTH ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ LATER TONIGHT. BOTTOM
LINE...WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ
OVERNIGHT...WITH BEST CHANCE IN THE LATE EVENING. WILL NEED TO KEEP
A CLOSE EYE ON THIS SITUATION.

UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON
WILL MOVE EVER SO SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND REMAIN A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. AS SUCH...HIGHEST
POP TUESDAY WILL AGAIN BE OUT WEST...AND PROBABLY TO THE NORTHWEST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. FORECAST FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WAS NOT
CHANGED MUCH FROM WHAT WAS INHERITED...IN PART DUE TO THE FACT THAT
THIS MORNING/S NUMERICAL GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUPPORTED INHERITED FCST
PACKAGE FOR THIS PERIOD. SO...SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE REMNANT QUASI-STATIONARY CIRCULATION CENTER SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SPIN OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY...WITH
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES POTENTIALLY BETTER FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DEEP
CONVECTION. VARIOUS MESOSCALE PROCESSES COULD STILL CONTAMINATE THE
ATMOSPHERE...SO HAVE ONLY ADVERTISED HIGHER END CHANCE POPS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCES APPEARING TO LIE INTO
PARTS OF NORTHWEST ARIZONA. ALSO HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF
TRIMMING POPS THROUGH THE EASTERN CWA WITH STRONGER RIDGING AND
DRIER AIR ADVECTING WESTWARD...THOUGH ANOTHER WAVE CURRENTLY SOUTH
OF BROWNSVILLE TX COULD STREAM NORTH ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CNTRL MEXICO AND INVIGORATE CONVECTION THROUGH FAR SERN
ARIZONA...MOVING TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA.

THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BIFURCATED
RIDGE WITH THE HIGHEST H5 HEIGHTS OVER TEXAS ATTEMPTING TO
RETROGRADE INTO THE OLD HEIGHT WEAKNESS/INVERTED TROUGH OVER SRN
CALIFORNIA/NEVADA. ECMWF SOLUTIONS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN HOLDING THE
WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELD AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE THROUGH THE
REGION AGAINST THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE RETROGRESSION. THERE IS
LIMITED TO ALMOST NO ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FROM GFS AND CMC MEMBERS FOR
THIS TYPE OF OUTCOME...WITH CONSENSUS OUTPUT INDICATING STRONGER
RIDGING AND DRYING OVERTAKING THE REGION. THEREFORE...HAVE CONTINUED
TO TREND POPS DOWNWARD INTO THE END OF THE WEEK...WHILE PUSHING
TEMPERATURES UP TO AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

VERY QUIET CONVECTIVELY THIS EVENING...AND ATTM DO NOT EXPECT
CONVECTION FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...JUST SOME SCATTERED MID/HI
LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS. HOWEVER...WE ARE WATCHING A CLUSTER OF STORMS
WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST...TO THE SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON. STORMS ARE
RATHER ORGANIZED AND MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST. WE MAY SEE GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL DESERTS LATER
THIS EVENING...OR EVEN AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT
ACTUAL THUNDERSTORMS COULD EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA OR DEVELOP
AS THE OUTFLOW WINDS MOVE THROUGH. CONFIDENCE IN THIS NOT HIGH AND
WILL NOT MENTION STORMS IN THE UPCOMING 06Z TAF PACKAGE. FOR
TOMORROW...STORM THREATS STILL ARE RATHER LOW...MAY SEE AN ISOLATED
STORM IN THE DESERTS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING BUT WILL
NOT MAKE MENTION OF IT IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE
NEXT 24 HOURS AND FAVOR DIURNAL PATTERNS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

WEAK UPPER LOW AND CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE AREA AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. CONVECTION HAS MOSTLY ENDED AS
OF 9 PM...BUT THERE WILL BE A LINGERING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR A
THUNDERSTORM REST OF TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WILL KEEP VCSH IN THE
TAFS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...ALONG WITH BROKEN MID/HI CLOUD DECKS.
SHOULD STORMS REDEVELOP WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC...OTHERWISE
THEY WILL BE LIGHT AND FAVOR THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
LOW GRADE MONSOON CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LIMITED TO HIGHER TERRAIN PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED. HUMIDITIES WILL TREND DOWNWARD
THURSDAY WITH ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS THEREAFTER WITH OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY REMAINING GOOD. WINDS WILL FAVOR FAMILIAR WARM SEASON
DIURNAL PATTERNS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB/DG
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MO
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...AJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
316 PM MST MON JUL 30 2012

AZZ024-311300-
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY/TONTO NATIONAL FOREST FOOTHILLS-
316 PM MST MON JUL 30 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

EXPECT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. ANY STORM THAT FORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY
TRENDING DOWNWARD BY THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...STORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE PRIMARILY OVER HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

AZZ022-023-027-028-311300-
NORTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY-GREATER PHOENIX AREA-
SOUTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY-NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY-
316 PM MST MON JUL 30 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

EXPECT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDESTORMS COULD INCREASE LATE THIS
EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS RATHER LOW. ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT FORMS MAY PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY
WINDS...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH PRIMARILY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. ANY STORMS WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...STRONG WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

AZZ020-021-025-026-CAZ030>033-311300-
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AZ-WEST CENTRAL DESERTS-
YUMA/MARTINEZ LAKE AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST DESERTS-
JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK-LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY CA-
RIVERSIDE COUNTY/EASTERN DESERTS-IMPERIAL COUNTY-
316 PM MST MON JUL 30 2012 /316 PM PDT MON JUL 30 2012/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST /MIDNIGHT PDT/
TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA...EXTREME WEST-CENTRAL ARIZONA...SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...WEST-
CENTRAL ARIZONA...EXTREME SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. STRONGEST STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH FLOODING OF WASHES AND ROADWAYS A GOOD BET...AS
WELL AS LIGHTNING AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH PRIMARILY
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ANY STORMS WILL
HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1126 PM MST MON JUL 30 2012

AZZ024-310745-
GILA AZ-PINAL AZ-
1126 PM MST MON JUL 30 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PHOENIX HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTH CENTRAL GILA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA
  NORTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA

UNTIL 1245 AM MST

AT 1124 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 20 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF SAN CARLOS TO 19 MILES SOUTH OF SAN CARLOS TO 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF
MAMMOTH...AND MOVING NORTHWEST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH
FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
   WINKELMAN...
   CHRISTMAS... HAYDEN AND  SAN CARLOS...
   CUTTER...
   CLAYPOOL... MIAMI AND  GLOBE...

SOME UNSECURED OBJECTS WILL BE BLOWN AROUND...TREE LIMBS COULD BE
SNAPPED OFF...AND ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES WILL BE POSSIBLE. SEEK
SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING. IF STORMS APPROACH
YOUR LOCATION OR YOU HEAR THUNDER...MOVE INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING OR
AN ALL METAL VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3339 11040 3335 11044 3328 11044 3319 11039
      3311 11066 3306 11072 3302 11072 3297 11078
      3323 11095 3318 11103 3320 11105 3356 11084
      3370 11055 3343 11029
TIME...MOT...LOC 0626Z 142DEG 22KT 3318 11019 3309 11039
          3281 11055

KUHLMAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1231 AM MST TUE JUL 31 2012

AZZ024-028-310830-
GILA AZ-PINAL AZ-MARICOPA AZ-
1231 AM MST TUE JUL 31 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PHOENIX HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  WESTERN GILA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA
  EXTREME EAST CENTRAL MARICOPA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA
  NORTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA

UNTIL 130 AM MST

AT 1229 AM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM CLAYPOOL TO
KEARNY...AND MOVING NORTHWEST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH
FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
   CLAYPOOL AND MIAMI...
   TOP OF THE WORLD...
   SUPERIOR...
   BOYCE THOMPSON ARBORETUM...
   TONTO NATIONAL MONUMENT...
   ROOSEVELT DAM...ROOSEVELT...FLORENCE JUNCTION AND QUEEN VALLEY...
   APACHE LAKE...

SOME UNSECURED OBJECTS COULD BE BLOWN AROUND. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS
UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING. IF STORMS APPROACH
YOUR LOCATION OR YOU HEAR THUNDER...MOVE INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING OR
AN ALL METAL VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3381 11116 3377 11098 3365 11092 3369 11085
      3366 11079 3314 11088 3323 11096 3305 11122
      3307 11141 3387 11122
TIME...MOT...LOC 0730Z 118DEG 23KT 3345 11081 3303 11097

KUHLMAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
101 AM MST TUE JUL 31 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1258 AM     TSTM WND GST     7 ESE TONTO NATIONAL MO 33.62N 111.00W
07/31/2012  E45 MPH          GILA               AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATE 40-50MPH WINDS BEHIND GUST FRONT

&&

EVENT NUMBER PSR1200206

MO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
115 AM MST TUE JUL 31 2012

AZZ023-024-028-310900-
GILA AZ-PINAL AZ-MARICOPA AZ-
115 AM MST TUE JUL 31 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PHOENIX HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  WEST CENTRAL GILA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA
  EASTERN MARICOPA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA
  NORTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA

UNTIL 200 AM MST

AT 111 AM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM ROOSEVELT DAM TO
QUEEN VALLEY...AND MOVING NORTHWEST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
   APACHE LAKE...FLORENCE JUNCTION AND QUEEN VALLEY...
   FOUR PEAKS...CANYON LAKE...
   KINGS RANCH AND SUPERSTITION MOUNTAINS...
   LOST DUTCHMAN STATE PARK...
   APACHE JUNCTION...BALLANTINE TRAILHEAD...
   ROUND VALLEY AND SAGUARO LAKE...

SOME UNSECURED OBJECTS COULD BE BLOWN AROUND. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS
UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 3376 11111 3315 11123 3326 11166 3390 11151
TIME...MOT...LOC 0814Z 121DEG 25KT 3367 11118 3325 11127

KUHLMAN