Special Weather Statement, NWS Pocatello, ID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
205 PM MDT SUN JUL 15 2012

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SEATTLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG COAST AND OVER GREAT BASIN. TWO AREAS
OF MOISTURE OF CONCERN. FIRST SWINGING THROUGH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND SECOND PUSHING NORTH FROM NEVADA/UTAH.
CUMULUS FIELDS HAVE DEVELOPED MAINLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION IN THE NORTH END OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND JUST SOUTH OF THE UTAH BORDER. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP
REMAINS ACROSS NORTHERN TIER ZONES/ALONG MONTANA BORDER WITH 2ND
AREA IN SOUTHEAST CORNER ASSOCIATED WITH GREAT BASIN MOISTURE.
BETTER CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EXIST ON MONDAY AS PACNW
LOW DIPS SOUTHWARD ALONG COAST AND DEEPENS SOUTHERLY FLOW AGAIN
OVER EASTERN IDAHO. MONSOONAL PUSH FROM MOISTURE OVER NEVADA/UTAH
PROGGED TO FLOW INTO THE REGION WITH PRECIPITATION INCREASING IN
COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY FOR POTENTIALLY WETTEST DAY OF THE
WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON DRY SLOT FOR TUESDAY WITH PRECIP
CHANCES RELEGATED TO NORTHERN ZONES AND ALONG WYOMING BORDER AS
LOW CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...STILL A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT IN MED
RANGE MODELS. GFS STILL THE QUICKEST IN OPENING UP THE LOW AND
EJECTING IT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. ECMWF...DGEX AND GEM ALL
HOLD TROUGH AXIS FURTHER WEST. AS GFS TRIES TO REBUILD UPPER HIGH
OVER CENTRAL ROCKIES BY FRIDAY...REMAINDER OF THE MODELS HOLD
EASTERN IDAHO UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF PACNW TROUGH THOUGH PLACEMENT
OF TROUGH AXIS DIFFERS SLIGHTLY. ALL MODELS KEEP EASTERN IDAHO DRY
HOWEVER SO CONTINUED TO NUDGE POPS DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY. GFS
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN THE OTHER MODELS THE LAST FEW DAYS. KEPT
TEMPS ELEVATED TOWARD THE GFS GUIDANCE THOUGH A SLOWER PROGRESSION
OF THE TROUGH MAY HOLD TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER. DMH

&&

.AVIATION...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST IDAHO TODAY. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT PRECIPITATION...IF
ANY...WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND THE
SALMON-CHALLIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. MORE SHOWERS COULD PUSH
INTO THE SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...AND MAY SPREAD
INTO ALL OF SOUTHEAST IDAHO BY LATE MORNING. WINDS MAY BE GUSTY AT
TIMES ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN...BUT SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 25 KTS.
MOISTURE PROFILES SUPPORT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH NEXT 24 HOURS.
HINSBERGER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...VERY ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST.
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL INTENSIFY OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW
DROPS INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON/OREGON. THIS MAY BRING SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS TOMORROW MORNING. AS THE MOISTURE
EXPANDS ACROSS IDAHO...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME LESS STABLE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE. STILL BELIEVE IT TO BE TOO MOIST TO BE CONCERNED
ABOUT RED FLAG CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY AFTER THE PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS RECEIVED YESTERDAY. THE REGION SHOULD SEE A DRYING TREND
STARTING TUESDAY AS MOISTURE SHIFTS EASTWARD. MODELS INDICATING
ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE ENTERING EASTERN IDAHO NEXT
WEEKEND...POSSIBLY EVEN SOME REMNANTS OF HURRICANE FABIO.
HINSBERGER

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
333 AM MDT SUN JUL 15 2012

IDZ017>025-031-032-160945-
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY-SAWTOOTH MOUNTAINS-UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS-
UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-CARIBOU HIGHLANDS-
CACHE VALLEY/IDAHO PORTION-WASATCH MOUNTAINS/IDAHO PORTION-
BIG AND LITTLE WOOD RIVER REGION-LOST RIVER/PAHSIMEROI-
333 AM MDT SUN JUL 15 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN IDAHO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. EXPECT A DRYING TREND WEDNESDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WE ASK TRAINED SPOTTERS AND CITIZENS TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO. THESE CONDITIONS MAY
INCLUDE HAIL...TORNADOES...STRONG WIND...DUST STORMS...SNOWFALL...
EXTREME COLD TEMPERATURES...FREEZING RAIN OR HEAVY RAIN...DENSE
FOG...AND FLOODING OR ICE JAMS. INFORMATION ABOUT THESE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE CALLED INTO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN POCATELLO USING THE 1-800 SEVERE WEATHER HOTLINE...OR
208-233-0834.

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