Special Weather Statement, NWS Pocatello, ID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
129 PM MDT SAT JUL 14 2012

.DISCUSSION...SAT IMAGERY SHOWS WRAPPED UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWEST
OREGON THIS MORNING ALONG WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN AND ANOTHER LOW ROTATING NORTH ALONG THE NEVADA/UTAH BORDER.
AMPLE MOISTURE KEEPING CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN IDAHO
WHICH HAS HELPED TO LIMIT TEMPS AND INSTABILITY FOR TODAY. ROUND OF
STRONGER CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH GREAT BASIN LOW BEGINNING TO
MOVE INTO SOUTHERN IDAHO. BETTER INSTABILITY EXISTS OVER CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS BUT HIGH LEVEL BLOW OFF FROM SOUTHERN CONVECTION MAY LIMIT
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. WILL CONTINUE
CHANCE OR BETTER POPS FOR TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. MOST CELLS
SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WETTING RAINS. PW VALUES ARE HIGH
ENOUGH TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER
RECENT BURN AREAS. OREGON LOW OPENS UP AND EJECTS EAST ACROSS
PANHANDLE INTO MONTANA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WAVE WILL DRAG
DRIER MID LEVEL AIRMASS INTO THE REGION BUT ALSO PROVIDE ENOUGH
DYNAMICS TO CONTINUE THE THREAT OF STORMS GIVEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
MODELS REDEVELOP THE LOW OVER THE PACNW ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL AGAIN
ENHANCE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND MAINTAIN POTENTIAL FOR
MONSOONAL CONVECTION. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BY MID TO
LATE WEEK AS NEW UPPER LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLE.
00Z ECMWF THE SLOWEST OF THE MODELS IN EJECTING OUT THE LOW THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...AND GFS DEVELOPS A THIRD UPPER LOW ALONG THE PACNW
COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES...OPTED FOR A NUDGE
TOWARD CLIMO ON THE POPS AND A BLEND OF GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY
AND BEYOND. DMH
&&

.AVIATION...MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE AREA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA. WITH PWAT VALUES OF AROUND 1.25 INCHES...SOME RAINFALL MAY BE
HEAVY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES AROUND THE
TERMINALS...BUT EXPECT OVERALL VFR TO PREVAIL. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH INTO SOUTHERN IDAHO OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL MARK THE END OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THE TAF SITES. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHICH COULD INCREASE WIND SPEEDS NEAR 20 KTS.
HINSBERGER
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE PAST MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MAY BE
WIDELY SCATTERED AROUND MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION...BUT CONTINUE TO
HOLD THAT FUELS AND ATMOSPHERE REMAIN MOIST ENOUGH TO CURTAIL NEW
FIRE STARTS...OR AT LEAST INHIBIT EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR. MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH
EARLY TOMORROW. WINDS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO
20 TO 25 MPH IN SOME AREAS. SHOULD SEE LESS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
TOMORROW WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY FOCUSED ON THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS.
A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED AFTER MONDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS INDICATE THAT REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE FABIO COULD MAKE ITS WAY OVER THE NORTHWEST NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE TIMING AND TRACK
OF THE MOISTURE PLUME.  HINSBERGER
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
354 AM MDT SAT JUL 14 2012

IDZ017>025-031-032-151000-
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY-SAWTOOTH MOUNTAINS-UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS-
UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-CARIBOU HIGHLANDS-
CACHE VALLEY/IDAHO PORTION-WASATCH MOUNTAINS/IDAHO PORTION-
BIG AND LITTLE WOOD RIVER REGION-LOST RIVER/PAHSIMEROI-
354 AM MDT SAT JUL 14 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN IDAHO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

EXPECT CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WE ASK TRAINED SPOTTERS AND CITIZENS TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO. THESE CONDITIONS MAY
INCLUDE HAIL...TORNADOES...STRONG WIND...DUST STORMS...SNOWFALL...
EXTREME COLD TEMPERATURES...FREEZING RAIN OR HEAVY RAIN...DENSE
FOG...AND FLOODING OR ICE JAMS. INFORMATION ABOUT THESE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE CALLED INTO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN POCATELLO USING THE 1-800 SEVERE WEATHER HOTLINE...OR
208-233-0834.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
441 PM MDT SAT JUL 14 2012

IDZ025-150015-
BEAR LAKE ID-FRANKLIN ID-
441 PM MDT SAT JUL 14 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN POCATELLO HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IDAHO
  SOUTHERN BEAR LAKE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IDAHO

UNTIL 615 PM MDT

AT 430 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
A THUNDERSTORM WAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING 11 MILES SOUTH OF GARDEN
CITY...UTAH...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
   FISH HAVEN...ST CHARLES...BLOOMINGTON...PARIS...AND BOATERS ON
BEAR LAKE

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.  BOATERS SHOULD IMMEDIATELY HEAD FOR THE NEAREST
SHORE...THEN SEEK SHELTER.

LAT...LON 4223 11156 4221 11113 4199 11119 4199 11139
      4200 11153
TIME...MOT...LOC 2238Z 183DEG 11KT 4180 11137

MESSICK

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